Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.</li>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.</li>
</ul>


The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">TRYT (9164 JP)</a> shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.</li>
<li>The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.</li>
<li>The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.</li>
</ul>



TRYT (9164 JP) shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.
The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.
The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.


Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a>, a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/timee-215a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150750" rel="noopener">Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/timee-215a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150848" rel="noopener">Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Timee is attractively valued at the IPO price range in the context of the forecasted growth. </li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
We previously discussed the IPO in Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Timee is attractively valued at the IPO price range in the context of the forecasted growth. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a>, a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/timee-215a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150750" rel="noopener">Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and significant share option dilution.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
In Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and significant share option dilution.


Japan

Persol Holdings Co., Ltd. provides human resource solutions to a wide variety of customers worldwide. The Company's main operations include temporary staffing services, contract services, and employment services. Temp Holdings also provides outsourcing services and employment support services for job seekers.

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Persol Holdings (2181 JP)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price...

Arun George

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Timee is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Our analysis suggests that Timee is attractively valued at the IPO price range in the context of...

Arun George

Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and...

Arun George

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