Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (601318 CH)</a> trades at a 40% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (2318 HK)</a>. The premium has blown out the last week and there could be a reversal.</li>
<li>The difference in Ping An's AH premium versus the HSAHP Index has shrunk to its narrowest level in the last 10 years.</li>
<li>Shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)</a> via Northbound Connect has dropped and shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> via Southbound Connect has increased steadily.</li>
</ul>



Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) trades at a 40% premium to Ping An Insurance (2318 HK). The premium has blown out the last week and there could be a reversal.
The difference in Ping An's AH premium versus the HSAHP Index has shrunk to its narrowest level in the last 10 years.
Shareholding in Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH) via Northbound Connect has dropped and shareholding in Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) via Southbound Connect has increased steadily.


Ping An A/​H Premium: Blow Out Could Lead to Sharp Reversal

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China and Hong Kong saw positive ETF flows for the week.</li>
<li>Dividend Yield, Low Volatility and Value strategies have outperformed during the market correction in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Lufax Holdings jumps after announcement that Ping An will increase stake.  Fufeng slumps after announcing a decline in 1st half profit.</li>
</ul>


China and Hong Kong saw positive ETF flows for the week.
Dividend Yield, Low Volatility and Value strategies have outperformed during the market correction in Hong Kong.
Lufax Holdings jumps after announcement that Ping An will increase stake.  Fufeng slumps after announcing a decline in 1st half profit.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA/HONG KONG (July 5th)

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is considerable worsening in net profit, including from key divisions </li>
<li>Despite rising assets for Health and Life, profit in this core division is down a lot</li>
<li>Banking exposure is significant, with a poor outlook, and making Ping An less pure</li>
</ul>


There is considerable worsening in net profit, including from key divisions 
Despite rising assets for Health and Life, profit in this core division is down a lot
Banking exposure is significant, with a poor outlook, and making Ping An less pure


Ping An Insurance - Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.</li>
<li>Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.</li>
<li>Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.</li>
</ul>


Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.
Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.
Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.


Ping An Insurance Group  of / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weak results at Ping An Insurance across many divisions, with banking most important</li>
<li>Life and Health negative insurance revenue delta, not offset by insurance cost delta</li>
<li>Net asset growth is now at 5% YoY, from 9% YoY last year, from ~29% avg for years</li>
</ul>


Weak results at Ping An Insurance across many divisions, with banking most important
Life and Health negative insurance revenue delta, not offset by insurance cost delta
Net asset growth is now at 5% YoY, from 9% YoY last year, from ~29% avg for years


Ping An Insurance - Weak Results, Net Asset Growth 5% From 9%, Profit Delta -Ve In Many Divisions

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and Smart City solutions. The Group's insurance business writes property, casualty, and life insurance products.

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Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)

Ping An A/H Premium: Blow Out Could Lead to Sharp Reversal

The Ping An AH premium has dropped from the highs of 40% mid last week. There should be a further drop in the AH premium, but it could be a bumpy...

Brian Freitas

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA/HONG KONG (July 5th)

ETF flows continued to be positive for China during the week and Southbound Connect program continued to show inflows into HK market. Dividend,...

David Mudd

Ping An Insurance - Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

Expect earnings to be released soon. There remains considerable risk to core insurance operations, with worsening China and Hong Kong markets, but...

Daniel Tabbush

China & HK: Underowned?

Over 3/4 of Global equity managers are underweight China. Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no...

Steven Holden

Ping An Insurance - Weak Results, Net Asset Growth 5% From 9%, Profit Delta -Ve In Many Divisions

Ping An Insurance reported 1H23 results, with negative profit growth or losses across many divisions, only banking appears strong. Net asset growth...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ping An A/​H Premium: Blow Out Could Lead to Sharp Reversal

The Ping An AH premium has dropped from the highs of 40% mid last week. There should be a further drop in the AH premium, but it could be a bumpy...

Brian Freitas

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA/HONG KONG (July 5th)

ETF flows continued to be positive for China during the week and Southbound Connect program continued to show inflows into HK market. Dividend,...

David Mudd

Ping An Insurance - Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

Expect earnings to be released soon. There remains considerable risk to core insurance operations, with worsening China and Hong Kong markets, but...

Daniel Tabbush

China & HK: Underowned?

Over 3/4 of Global equity managers are underweight China. Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no...

Steven Holden

Ping An Insurance - Weak Results, Net Asset Growth 5% From 9%, Profit Delta -Ve In Many Divisions

Ping An Insurance reported 1H23 results, with negative profit growth or losses across many divisions, only banking appears strong. Net asset growth...

Daniel Tabbush

Ping An A/H Premium: Blow Out Could Lead to Sharp Reversal