HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Neusoft Xikang Healthcare Technology Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Neusoft Xikang Healthcare Technology Co Ltd

<ul>
<li>The cloud hospital platform services serve as “the entry point” of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neusoft-xikang-healthcare-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33447:1" rel="noopener">Neusoft Xikang</a>’s overall solutions, but the restrictions imposed by cities would affect the scalability of business.</li>
<li>The variety of 2B objects and the diversity of medical scenarios covered would be conducive to the transformation to 2C business, resulting in stronger user stickiness and more monetization opportunities.</li>
<li>Xikang’s 2B business is weaker than ClouDr. Financial performance would finally reflect the effectiveness and rationality of business model. Xikang’s valuation should be lower than ClouDr and Ping An Good Doctor.</li>
</ul>


The cloud hospital platform services serve as “the entry point” of Neusoft Xikang’s overall solutions, but the restrictions imposed by cities would affect the scalability of business.
The variety of 2B objects and the diversity of medical scenarios covered would be conducive to the transformation to 2C business, resulting in stronger user stickiness and more monetization opportunities.
Xikang’s 2B business is weaker than ClouDr. Financial performance would finally reflect the effectiveness and rationality of business model. Xikang’s valuation should be lower than ClouDr and Ping An Good Doctor.


Pre IPO Neusoft Xikang Healthcare Technology - Some Points Worth the Attention

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ClouDr had outstanding performance in 2022, which was mainly due to its unique but effective development model - starting from To B business first and then expanding To C business. </li>
<li>ClouDr may become the first company to develop a successful profit model of online medical services. The integration of AI and medical care enables ClouDr to enjoy more policy dividends/catalysts </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloudr-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34459:1" rel="noopener">ClouDr Group (9955 HK)</a> has high growth potential with big investment value, and it could even surpass JD Health in the future. The Company is undervalued and deserve investors’ attention.</li>
</ul>


ClouDr had outstanding performance in 2022, which was mainly due to its unique but effective development model - starting from To B business first and then expanding To C business. 
ClouDr may become the first company to develop a successful profit model of online medical services. The integration of AI and medical care enables ClouDr to enjoy more policy dividends/catalysts 

ClouDr Group (9955 HK) has high growth potential with big investment value, and it could even surpass JD Health in the future. The Company is undervalued and deserve investors’ attention.


ClouDr Group (9955.HK) -  “A Dark Horse” to Beat JD Health

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

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<ul>
<li>Ping An Good Doctor ("PAGD") is still in the progress of its strategic shift, which should help improving profitability in the long term by synergizing between different business sectors as well as the operations of its parent Ping An group.</li>
<li>However, we believe it would take time for the company to adjust and reallocate resources, so the transformation will continue to hit short-term revenue.</li>
<li>We have reduced our FY23/FY24 revenue forecasts by 19.4%/19.1% and our TP by 17% to HK$20.47. </li>
</ul>
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Ping An Good Doctor ("PAGD") is still in the progress of its strategic shift, which should help improving profitability in the long term by synergizing between different business sectors as well as the operations of its parent Ping An group.
However, we believe it would take time for the company to adjust and reallocate resources, so the transformation will continue to hit short-term revenue.
We have reduced our FY23/FY24 revenue forecasts by 19.4%/19.1% and our TP by 17% to HK$20.47. 






Ping An Good Doctor - Strategic Transformation Still in Progress

Sipai Health Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The sustainability/stability of Sipai’s performance and growth potential are worrying. Sipai doesn’t have a business with core competitiveness as its foundation, thus leading to potential problems in its business model.</li>
<li>It is useless to have fast revenue growth because Sipai’s profitability is very weak, which is actually closely related to its business characteristics. Sipai is far from being breakeven.</li>
<li>Sipai is overvalued. Such high valuation is not reasonable based on our analysis. We are conservative about Sipai's outlook and we think there are much better investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The sustainability/stability of Sipai’s performance and growth potential are worrying. Sipai doesn’t have a business with core competitiveness as its foundation, thus leading to potential problems in its business model.
It is useless to have fast revenue growth because Sipai’s profitability is very weak, which is actually closely related to its business characteristics. Sipai is far from being breakeven.
Sipai is overvalued. Such high valuation is not reasonable based on our analysis. We are conservative about Sipai's outlook and we think there are much better investment opportunities.


Sipai Health Technology (314.HK) - Unjustified Valuation and Problematic Business Model

China

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited provides health care software solutions. The Company offers mobile platform for online consultation, hospital referral and appointment, health management, and wellness interaction services, as well as connects consumers and patients with health care resources. Ping An Healthcare and Technology serves customers in China.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

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Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

Pre IPO Neusoft Xikang Healthcare Technology - Some Points Worth the Attention

Xikang’s business model has its logic.But due to the restrictions imposed by cities, the scalability is uncertain.Without strong 2B business as...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ClouDr Group (9955.HK) - “A Dark Horse” to Beat JD Health

ClouDr could be the first company to develop a successful profit model of online medical services, changing the game rule. ClouDr has big potential...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

Ping An Good Doctor - Strategic Transformation Still in Progress

We have reduced our FY23/FY24 revenue forecasts by 19.4%/19.1% and our TP by 17% to HK$20.47. As our new TP implies a potential upside of only 3%,...

Quam Securities

Sipai Health Technology (314.HK) - Unjustified Valuation and Problematic Business Model

The sustainability/stability of Sipai’s performance/growth potential is worrying. Weak profitability make Sipai hard to be breakeven.High valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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