HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.</li>
<li>Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.</li>
<li>PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.</li>
</ul>


Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.
Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.
PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.


Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

<ul>
<li>In 2025, the NHSA will continue to deepen the VBP of drugs and centralized procurement of medical consumables, covering 700 drug varieties in total. </li>
<li>Valuation of the entire industry has been sluggish for three years. With the positive changes, we think it is the time to be optimistic on China healthcare in 2025.</li>
<li>Due to the craze for DeepSeek/AI, PAGD's stock price surged.Although this is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified.</li>
</ul>


In 2025, the NHSA will continue to deepen the VBP of drugs and centralized procurement of medical consumables, covering 700 drug varieties in total. 
Valuation of the entire industry has been sluggish for three years. With the positive changes, we think it is the time to be optimistic on China healthcare in 2025.
Due to the craze for DeepSeek/AI, PAGD's stock price surged.Although this is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.23)-Ping An Good Doctor Shares Surge, China Healthcare Has Bottomed Out

<ul>
<li>Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.</li>
<li>Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.</li>
<li>The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.</li>
</ul>


Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.
Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.
The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) - Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 14th November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0107/2025010701638.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)'s Unconditional MGO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor), which was spun off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (601318 CH)</a> and listed in May 2018, has announced a<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1114/2024111400573.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> change in use of proceeds</a>.</li>
<li>Part of that change includes the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>The more interesting aspect is that a scrip dividend is also afforded, which should allow a stealth MBO from Ping An at zero premium.</li>
</ul>



Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor), which was spun off from Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) and listed in May 2018, has announced a change in use of proceeds.
Part of that change includes the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
The more interesting aspect is that a scrip dividend is also afforded, which should allow a stealth MBO from Ping An at zero premium.


2025 High Conviction: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) - The Arb Is To Take The Stock

China

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited provides health care software solutions. The Company offers mobile platform for online consultation, hospital referral and appointment, health management, and wellness interaction services, as well as connects consumers and patients with health care resources. Ping An Healthcare and Technology serves customers in China.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

Surge in share price is driven by AI craze in digital healthcare. If the fundamentals do not improve with the development/iteration of AI, then...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.23)-Ping An Good Doctor Shares Surge, China Healthcare Has Bottomed Out

NHSA to expand VBP in 2025. China healthcare has entered the stage of bottoming out from 2025.The extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang