LNG, Oil & Gas, M&A Market Intelligence Specialist

Massimo Bellino

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

On the back of a growing LNG global trade volume, LNG producers have outperformed the US market and their E&amp;P peers including the oil majors over the last two years. As global LNG production reaches a record 316m tonnes in 2018, a 9.6% increase year on year, new capacity additions set to come online in the next three years will be dominated by the US. This insight will examine how the recent entry of US LNG in the market is transforming the LNG industry and which emerging players are driving the change.
<h2>Exhibit 1: LNG Producers Outperform the US Market</h2>
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Source: Capital IQ. Prices as of 22 of January. Un-weighted indexed composites. Oil Majors: Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, Total and ENI. Australia LNG: Woodside Energy, Santos, Oil Search. independent E&amp;Ps: oil and gas upstream companies with market value greater than $300m as of 18 April 2018.
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On the back of a growing LNG global trade volume, LNG producers have outperformed the US market and their E&amp;P peers including the oil majors over the last two years. As global LNG production reaches a record 316m tonnes in 2018, a 9.6% increase year on year, new capacity additions set to come online in the next three years will be dominated by the US. This insight will examine how the recent entry of US LNG in the market is transforming the LNG industry and which emerging players are driving the change.
Exhibit 1: LNG Producers Outperform the US Market


Source: Capital IQ. Prices as of 22 of January. Un-weighted indexed composites. Oil Majors: Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, Total and ENI. Australia LNG: Woodside Energy, Santos, Oil Search. independent E&amp;Ps: oil and gas upstream companies with market value greater than $300m as of 18 April 2018.


LNG Producers Outperform as More LNG from the US Is Coming into the Market

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Nuzran Sahib

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

LNG buyers are seeking to renegotiate their long-term LNG contracts by capitalising on the supply glut to overcome oil-based pricing, destination restrictions and “take or pay” clauses while transferring the shipping costs by pricing on DES instead of FOB basis. Successful renegotiations involving major gas producers suggest the potential for more renegotiation as suppliers trade off flexibility and lower prices in order to increase their supply quantity. With LNG projects streaming in from Australia and North America further decreases in LNG contract prices are plausible in the short term.

LNG buyers are seeking to renegotiate their long-term LNG contracts by capitalising on the supply glut to overcome oil-based pricing, destination restrictions and “take or pay” clauses while transferring the shipping costs by pricing on DES instead of FOB basis. Successful renegotiations involving major gas producers suggest the potential for more renegotiation as suppliers trade off flexibility and lower prices in order to increase their supply quantity. With LNG projects streaming in from Australia and North America further decreases in LNG contract prices are plausible in the short term.

Renegotiation of LNG Contracts Will Be More Evident in Coming Years Amidst Depressed Spot Prices

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
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Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Asia-Focused Industry Research, Speeda Research

Speeda

Asia-Focused Industry Research

Speeda Research

Speeda Research analysts cover China, Japan, India and SEA on the latest trends and topics. We have analysts of diverse nationalities who are able to access information in their respective local languages to provide customers with comprehensive reports. With access to private company data in these regions, Speeda Research is also able to provide insights into niche sectors which are not usually covered by other parties. We are also able to undertake ad hoc company and industry research reports.

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September 2016, the government was 7 million short of its goal with the odds of achieving it in less than a year seeming very low. Increasing PNG and CNG (compressed natural gas) connections are part of the government’s wider plan to more than double the share of natural gas in India’s energy mix to 20% by 2025. To achieve this goal, the government needs to ramp up transmission infrastructure and increase capacity of import infrastructure to cater to the expected surge in natural gas imports, apart from introducing key policies with regards to pricing, taxation and regulation. Based on past evidence and the information provided within this report, we think the government will fall short of its energy mix targets, just like it did in the PNG segment.

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September 2016, the government was 7 million short of its goal with the odds of achieving it in less than a year seeming very low. Increasing PNG and CNG (compressed natural gas) connections are part of the government’s wider plan to more than double the share of natural gas in India’s energy mix to 20% by 2025. To achieve this goal, the government needs to ramp up transmission infrastructure and increase capacity of import infrastructure to cater to the expected surge in natural gas imports, apart from introducing key policies with regards to pricing, taxation and regulation. Based on past evidence and the information provided within this report, we think the government will fall short of its energy mix targets, just like it did in the PNG segment.

Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited refines oil and produces petroleum and petrochemicals. The Company is a subsidiary of ONGC. Mangalore Refinery operates a refinery in Mangalore city that produces premium diesel and unleaded petrol of high octane.

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL IN)

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and manufactures petroleum and petroleum products. The Company's products, which are sold via outlets throughout India, include lube products, lubricating oil, aviation fuel, hydraulic brake fluid, greases, liquefied petroleum gas and insecticides. The Government of India is the majority shareholder in the company.

The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited owns and operates cargo ships. The Company's fleet of vessels includes bulk carriers, tankers and offshore supply vessels. The Company also acts as an agent for a number of foreign shipping companies.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products, including lube oil base stocks, aviation turbine fuel,  propane, propylene and polybutene feedstock.  The Group operates two refineries, the Cauvery Basin Refinery and the Manali Refinery.

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited is a Indian mining company, which specializes in lignite mining in the Gujarat area. The Company also invests in property.

Oil India Ltd. explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in India and internationally. The Company is also involved in the transportation of crude oil, production of liquefied petroleum gas, pipeline services, as well as various exploration and production related services.

Rain Industries Limited engages in the production of cement and other related products. The Company manufactures and markets cement, calcined petroleum coke, coal tar pitch, and specialty chemicals.

Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited is an oil exploration and production company. The Company has participating interest in nine oil and gas fields in India's Cambay basin, Cauvery basin, Assam Arakan basin and Rajasthan basin, which are in varying stages of exploration, development and production.

Hindustan Oil Exploration Company (HOE IN)

Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd main activity is to own, maintain and operate two pipelines from BPCL's refinery in Bombay to Reliance Industry's petrochemical complex in Patalganga.  The pipeline carries petroleum feedstock.

Reliance Industrial Infrastructure (RIIL IN)

Essar Shipping Ltd. is an Indian shipping and logistics corporation with a focus on transportation solutions for the global energy business. The Company has a diversified fleet of vessels, including VLCCs, capesizes, Supramaxes, mini bulk carriers and tugs. Essar also provides contract drilling services to oil & gas companies across the globe as well as end-to-end logistics services.

S-Oil Corporation refines crude oil and sells petroleum and its related products.  The Company mainly focuses on petroleum refining, petrochemical, and lubricant business. S-Oil's major products are gasoline, bunker oil, kerosene, naphtha, lubricants, benzene, toluene, and xylene.

SM Energy Company is an independent energy company that explores for and produces natural gas and crude oil.  The Company's operations are focused on The ArkLaTex, Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, Rocky Mountains, and Permian Basin regions.

Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited of Inner Mongolia is mainly involved in the production and selling of coal in China.

Huolinhe Opencut Coal Ind Corp Ltd. (002128 CH)

PT Adaro Energy Tbk is a coal mining company. The Company and its subsidiaries currently deal in coal mining and trade, coal infrastructure and logistics, and mining contractor services.

Shanxi Xishan Coal & Electricity Power Co., Ltd. mines and processes coal. The Company also generates electric power.

California Resources Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas company. The Company focuses on maximizing the value of land, mineral and technical resources for decarbonization by developing carbon capture and storage and other emissions reducing projects. California Resources serves customers in the State of California.

Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. is principally engaged in energy development, automotive services and real estate property leasing. The Company is in the business of coal mining and related coal chemical manufacturing. The Company is also engaged in the processing and distributing of granite materials and trading of general merchandise such as plastic doors and windows.

Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. mines, processes, and markets low sulfur high quality coal. The company also researches and develops coal and environment protection related technologies.

Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energy Dev.Co (601699 CH)

PDC Energy, Inc. produces and distributes petroleum products. The Company produces, develops, explores and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. PDC Energy operates in the United States.

Whitehaven Coal Limited mines and sells metallurgical and thermal coals to the global steel, power generation, and metallurgical industries.

Petronet LNG Ltd. was formed by the Government of India to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the country. The Company is a joint venture between GAIL, ONGC, IOC and BPCL. Petronet LNG has also selected GAZ de France as a strategic partner. The Company has set up LNG receiving ports in Dahej (Gujarat) and Kochi (Kerala).

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Petronet LNG (PLNG IN)

LNG Producers Outperform as More LNG from the US Is Coming into the Market

On the back of a growing LNG global trade volume, LNG producers have outperformed the US market and their E&P peers including the oil majors...

Massimo Bellino

Renegotiation of LNG Contracts Will Be More Evident in Coming Years Amidst Depressed Spot Prices

LNG buyers are seeking to renegotiate their long-term LNG contracts by capitalising on the supply glut to overcome oil-based pricing, destination...

Nuzran Sahib

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of...

David Riedel

Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September...

Speeda Research

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

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