EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.</p><p>This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.</p><p>The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.</p><p>This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force.</p><p> </p>

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force. 

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 22 March 2016 </p><div><strong>Asia FX action</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> </strong>5:15 min.</p><p>We run through trade points in Asia FX.</p><div>
<strong>INR</strong> - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
<strong>KRW</strong> - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

<p><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a></p><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

<p>The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to be held in Paris is another attempt to reign in global warming.&nbsp;India, the 3rd largest carbon emitter has, among other things, committed to reducing emissions by changing its energy mix to 40% from renewable sources of energy by 2030. This is an ambitious target and India's plan revolves around the sun. The government is taking steps in the right direction and the sector is receiving a lot of interest. While a lot is happening, let&rsquo;s take a look at the developments that could make this a very favourable sector to invest in.</p>

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to be held in Paris is another attempt to reign in global warming.&nbsp;India, the 3rd largest carbon emitter has, among other things, committed to reducing emissions by changing its energy mix to 40% from renewable sources of energy by 2030. This is an ambitious target and India's plan revolves around the sun. The government is taking steps in the right direction and the sector is receiving a lot of interest. While a lot is happening, let&rsquo;s take a look at the developments that could make this a very favourable sector to invest in.

India

Petronet LNG Ltd. was formed by the Government of India to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the country. The Company is a joint venture between GAIL, ONGC, IOC and BPCL. Petronet LNG has also selected GAZ de France as a strategic partner. The Company has set up LNG receiving ports in Dahej (Gujarat) and Kochi (Kerala).

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Petronet LNG (PLNG IN)

Saudi: A New Hope?

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the...

Emad Mostaque

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

The Case for Solar Energy in India

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to be held in Paris is another attempt to reign in global warming. India, the 3rd largest...

Ishita Jain

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