External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock rallied ~33% and outperformed the Sensex by ~22% over the last 6M</li><li>However, we believe the current market price is still factoring in very optimistic earnings growth on the back of a very strong FY24</li><li>With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to adversely impact BPCL’s marketing segment profitability, going ahead</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock rallied ~33% and outperformed the Sensex by ~22% over the last 6MHowever, we believe the current market price is still factoring in very optimistic earnings growth on the back of a very strong FY24With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to adversely impact BPCL’s marketing segment profitability, going aheadContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BPCL: Demanding Valuation. Maintain REDUCE

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul>
<li>Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24 results with an EBITDA of Rs92.1 bn (up 48% QoQ, PLe: Rs85.8 bn).</li>
<li>Adj PAT came in at Rs55.7 bn (up 64% QoQ, PLe: Rs48.4 bn).</li>
<li>The company reported a moderate GRM at US$12.5/bbl.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24 results with an EBITDA of Rs92.1 bn (up 48% QoQ, PLe: Rs85.8 bn).
Adj PAT came in at Rs55.7 bn (up 64% QoQ, PLe: Rs48.4 bn).
The company reported a moderate GRM at US$12.5/bbl.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation - Operating Profit Improves Sequentially

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock has rallied ~35% and has outperformed the Sensex by ~26% over the last 3M, driven by improving auto fuel marketing margins as Brent crude price declined by ~20% to USD 76/bbl over the same period and strong refining margins as diesel and jet fuel crack spreads averaged USD 23-24/bbl.</li><li>We downgrade BPCL to a REDUCE from a BUY, with a target price of INR 475/sh, owing to the risk of (1) lower auto-fuel marketing margins because of either a bounce-back in crude oil price or retail price cuts ahead of general elections and (2) moderation in refining margins.</li><li>Refining margin could moderate from recent highs on new supply: The ramp-up of &gt;1.2mbpd of new refining capacity in the Middle East and China over the next few months could adversely impact the higher-than-average transportation fuel crack spreads in the near/medium term, negatively impacting contribution from refining for BPCL.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock has rallied ~35% and has outperformed the Sensex by ~26% over the last 3M, driven by improving auto fuel marketing margins as Brent crude price declined by ~20% to USD 76/bbl over the same period and strong refining margins as diesel and jet fuel crack spreads averaged USD 23-24/bbl.We downgrade BPCL to a REDUCE from a BUY, with a target price of INR 475/sh, owing to the risk of (1) lower auto-fuel marketing margins because of either a bounce-back in crude oil price or retail price cuts ahead of general elections and (2) moderation in refining margins.Refining margin could moderate from recent highs on new supply: The ramp-up of &gt;1.2mbpd of new refining capacity in the Middle East and China over the next few months could adversely impact the higher-than-average transportation fuel crack spreads in the near/medium term, negatively impacting contribution from refining for BPCL.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BPCL: Unfavourable risk-reward. Downgrade to REDUCE

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Bharat Petroleum's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are "Material", but Disclosure is "Adequate".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We view Bharat Petroleum's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are "Material", but Disclosure is "Adequate". 

Bharat Petroleum - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

India

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

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Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)

BPCL: Demanding Valuation. Maintain REDUCE

With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to...

HDFC Securities

Bharat Petroleum Corporation - Operating Profit Improves Sequentially

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

BPCL: Unfavourable risk-reward. Downgrade to REDUCE

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock has rallied ~35% and has outperformed the Sensex by ~26% over the last 3M, driven by improving auto fuel...

HDFC Securities

Bharat Petroleum - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Bharat Petroleum's ESG as...

Lucror Analytics

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

There are at least four names eligible for NIFTY 50 addition in September 2024. However, the final count ADDs and DELs will be a discretionary...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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