External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock rallied ~33% and outperformed the Sensex by ~22% over the last 6M</li><li>However, we believe the current market price is still factoring in very optimistic earnings growth on the back of a very strong FY24</li><li>With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to adversely impact BPCL’s marketing segment profitability, going ahead</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock rallied ~33% and outperformed the Sensex by ~22% over the last 6MHowever, we believe the current market price is still factoring in very optimistic earnings growth on the back of a very strong FY24With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to adversely impact BPCL’s marketing segment profitability, going aheadContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BPCL: Demanding Valuation. Maintain REDUCE

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul>
<li>Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24 results with an EBITDA of Rs92.1 bn (up 48% QoQ, PLe: Rs85.8 bn).</li>
<li>Adj PAT came in at Rs55.7 bn (up 64% QoQ, PLe: Rs48.4 bn).</li>
<li>The company reported a moderate GRM at US$12.5/bbl.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24 results with an EBITDA of Rs92.1 bn (up 48% QoQ, PLe: Rs85.8 bn).
Adj PAT came in at Rs55.7 bn (up 64% QoQ, PLe: Rs48.4 bn).
The company reported a moderate GRM at US$12.5/bbl.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation - Operating Profit Improves Sequentially

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock has rallied ~35% and has outperformed the Sensex by ~26% over the last 3M, driven by improving auto fuel marketing margins as Brent crude price declined by ~20% to USD 76/bbl over the same period and strong refining margins as diesel and jet fuel crack spreads averaged USD 23-24/bbl.</li><li>We downgrade BPCL to a REDUCE from a BUY, with a target price of INR 475/sh, owing to the risk of (1) lower auto-fuel marketing margins because of either a bounce-back in crude oil price or retail price cuts ahead of general elections and (2) moderation in refining margins.</li><li>Refining margin could moderate from recent highs on new supply: The ramp-up of &gt;1.2mbpd of new refining capacity in the Middle East and China over the next few months could adversely impact the higher-than-average transportation fuel crack spreads in the near/medium term, negatively impacting contribution from refining for BPCL.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock has rallied ~35% and has outperformed the Sensex by ~26% over the last 3M, driven by improving auto fuel marketing margins as Brent crude price declined by ~20% to USD 76/bbl over the same period and strong refining margins as diesel and jet fuel crack spreads averaged USD 23-24/bbl.We downgrade BPCL to a REDUCE from a BUY, with a target price of INR 475/sh, owing to the risk of (1) lower auto-fuel marketing margins because of either a bounce-back in crude oil price or retail price cuts ahead of general elections and (2) moderation in refining margins.Refining margin could moderate from recent highs on new supply: The ramp-up of &gt;1.2mbpd of new refining capacity in the Middle East and China over the next few months could adversely impact the higher-than-average transportation fuel crack spreads in the near/medium term, negatively impacting contribution from refining for BPCL.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BPCL: Unfavourable risk-reward. Downgrade to REDUCE

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-stock-exchange" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23751:1" rel="noopener">National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN)</a> has announced a list of 45 stocks that will be added to the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market from 29 November.</li>
<li>There will be changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index</a> and the CNXIT Index over the next couple of rebalances.</li>
<li>There are some interesting situations out there, including a change to the universe for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> that could lead to more changes. </li>
</ul>


The National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) has announced a list of 45 stocks that will be added to the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market from 29 November.
There will be changes to the NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index, S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index and the CNXIT Index over the next couple of rebalances.
There are some interesting situations out there, including a change to the universe for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) that could lead to more changes. 


INDIA: Index Changes Due to the 45 New Additions to the F&O Segment

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>The recently-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a> could see some index inflows during the March 2025 rebal. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN)</a> could also get involved.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
The recently-listed Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) could see some index inflows during the March 2025 rebal. Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN) could also get involved.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Thoughts on Hyundai Motor, Zomato, and Jiofin

India

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

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Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)

BPCL: Demanding Valuation. Maintain REDUCE

With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to...

HDFC Securities

Bharat Petroleum Corporation - Operating Profit Improves Sequentially

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

BPCL: Unfavourable risk-reward. Downgrade to REDUCE

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock has rallied ~35% and has outperformed the Sensex by ~26% over the last 3M, driven by improving auto fuel...

HDFC Securities

INDIA: Index Changes Due to the 45 New Additions to the F&O Segment

NSE has announced 45 new stocks will be added to F&O on 29 November. That leads to a lot of change for indices that have F&O membership as a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Thoughts on Hyundai Motor, Zomato, and Jiofin

There are no changes for NIFTY 50 but there could be five changes for NIFTY Next 50 according to current rankings. Only 54% of the reference period...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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