Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in December last year, Aussie-listed equities manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) </a><a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02750947-2A1492987?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU)</a>'s $3bn all-scrip non-binding indicative proposal. </li>
<li>Yet Soul Patt's proposal was in sync with Perpetual's previously flagged intentions to explore a potential separation of its corporate trust and wealth management businesses, from its asset management business.</li>
<li>Perpetual has now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240508/pdf/063ccykhk7w69h.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered a Scheme</a>, to carve out the corporate trust and wealth management businesses to KKR for A$2.175bn. A lack of clarity on net proceeds saw shares rollover.</li>
</ul>


Back in December last year, Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejected Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU)'s $3bn all-scrip non-binding indicative proposal. 
Yet Soul Patt's proposal was in sync with Perpetual's previously flagged intentions to explore a potential separation of its corporate trust and wealth management businesses, from its asset management business.
Perpetual has now entered a Scheme, to carve out the corporate trust and wealth management businesses to KKR for A$2.175bn. A lack of clarity on net proceeds saw shares rollover.


Perpetual (PPT AU): Shareholders Divided Over Carve Out

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> made a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02750847-2A1492843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$3bn scrip offer</a> Aussie-listed equities manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).</a>
</li>
<li>Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT's asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.</li>
<li>PPT <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02750947-2A1492987?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) made a $3bn scrip offer Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).

Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT's asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.
PPT rejected the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.


Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts' "Fair" Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>On 21 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> submitted a non-binding, indicative offer to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> at ~A$27/share.</li>
<li>A few hours ago, that offer was rejected by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>'s Board citing a material undervaluation, conditional on demerger of the Asset Management business and execution risk.</li>
<li>If the deal goes through, there will be small passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a>. No major index changes expected. </li>
</ul>


On 21 November, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) submitted a non-binding, indicative offer to acquire Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) at ~A$27/share.
A few hours ago, that offer was rejected by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)'s Board citing a material undervaluation, conditional on demerger of the Asset Management business and execution risk.
If the deal goes through, there will be small passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU). No major index changes expected. 


WHSP's Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Perpetual Turned Down

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orora-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16042:1" rel="noopener">Orora Ltd (ORA AU)</a> disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star's indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. </li>
<li>The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, Orora Ltd (ORA AU) disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star's indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. 
The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.


Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 19th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Brambles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 19th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Brambles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 19th): Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Brambles

Australia

Perpetual Limited is a financial services company that has two primary activities, wealth management services and corporate trust services. The Company provides funds management, responsible entity services, trustee services, executor services, financial planning, investment administration, superannuation, custody and registry services.

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Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)

Perpetual (PPT AU): Shareholders Divided Over Carve Out

The sum of the parts should be greater than the whole. It's not unreasonable to expect Perpetual to re-rate as debt-free, pure play asset manager?...

David Blennerhassett

Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts' "Fair" Offer

PPT is up 6.3% following the disclosure of SOL's approach. I'd be inclined to be long PPT here. SOL may up the ante. And PPT is trading bleow...

David Blennerhassett

WHSP's Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Perpetual Turned Down

Soul Patts offered to buy Perpetual for A$27/share. The Perpetual Board has turned that down. Could Regal/BPEA or other suitors return for a second...

Brian Freitas

Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 19th): Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Brambles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Brambles.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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