Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd</a> have entered into a SID where Pendal shareholders will receive 1 share of Perpetual for every 7.5 shares in Pendal, plus cash of A$1.976/share.</li>
<li>While this is a premium to the last close and undisturbed prices, it is a discount to longer term prices. The Pendal Board has unanimously recommended the offer though.</li>
<li>In the short-term expect short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> and increased shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> as arbs step in to close the gap.</li>
</ul>



Pendal Group and Perpetual Ltd have entered into a SID where Pendal shareholders will receive 1 share of Perpetual for every 7.5 shares in Pendal, plus cash of A$1.976/share.
While this is a premium to the last close and undisturbed prices, it is a discount to longer term prices. The Pendal Board has unanimously recommended the offer though.
In the short-term expect short covering on Pendal Group (PDL AU) and increased shorts on Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) as arbs step in to close the gap.


Pendal Group (PDL AU): Perpetual's Bump Should Get the Deal Done

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.</li>
<li>Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.</li>
<li>The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).</li>
</ul>


Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, Link Administration (LNK AU) shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.
Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.
The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).


Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> scheme meeting is scheduled for 22 August. The independent expert has concluded that the revised Dye &amp; Durham/DND offer is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. The key hurdles are the ACCC approval, ongoing FCA investigation and regulatory approval for certain DND shareholders.</li>
<li>At the last close, the gross and annualised spread to a 27 September payment is 9.3% and 79.1%, respectively. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst.</li>
</ul>


The Link Administration (LNK AU) scheme meeting is scheduled for 22 August. The independent expert has concluded that the revised Dye &amp; Durham/DND offer is fair and reasonable.
There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. The key hurdles are the ACCC approval, ongoing FCA investigation and regulatory approval for certain DND shareholders.
At the last close, the gross and annualised spread to a 27 September payment is 9.3% and 79.1%, respectively. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst.


Link’s New Scheme Meeting on 22 August but Deal Break Risks Remain

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a>'s underwhelming debut, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-hongjiu-fruit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36023:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK)</a> is pre-marketing a US$200-300m IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wcp-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36076:1" rel="noopener">WCP (WCP KS)</a> pushed back its US$692m IPO to mid-September. </li>
<li>Event-Driven developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, China Vast, Hwa Hong.         </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)'s underwhelming debut, Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK) is pre-marketing a US$200-300m IPO, WCP (WCP KS) pushed back its US$692m IPO to mid-September. 
Event-Driven developments at Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Yancoal Australia (YAL AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), China Vast, Hwa Hong.         


Weekly Deals Digest (31 Jul) - Ramsay, Genex, MACA, Yancoal, Yashili, Thai Life, Hongjiu Fruit, WCP

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of July, only 4 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$1bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in July was ~42%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of July, only 4 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$1bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in July was ~42%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


Australia

Perpetual Limited is a financial services company that has two primary activities, wealth management services and corporate trust services. The Company provides funds management, responsible entity services, trustee services, executor services, financial planning, investment administration, superannuation, custody and registry services.

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Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)

Pendal Group (PDL AU): Perpetual's Bump Should Get the Deal Done

Perpetual has bumped its offer for Pendal & that should be enough to get the deal done. Both stocks have been on a downtrend over the last year and...

Brian Freitas

Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

The scheme is approved, but the deal break risks from conditions precedent remain. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%)...

Arun George

Link’s New Scheme Meeting on 22 August but Deal Break Risks Remain

There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst. At the last close,...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (31 Jul) - Ramsay, Genex, MACA, Yancoal, Yashili, Thai Life, Hongjiu Fruit, WCP

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Alliance Aviation, Ramsay, Yancoal, Genex, MACA, China Vast, Xiamen Port, Yashili, Hwa...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A: July 2022 Roundup

For the month of July, only 4 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$1bn. The average premium for...

David Blennerhassett

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