Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.</li>
<li>The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.</li>
<li>INFO TECH and FINANCIALS saw significant H outperformance vs As this week. Most others (other than perhaps MATERIALS) were limited in their volatility. No bias by premium tranche seen.  </li>
</ul>


AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
INFO TECH and FINANCIALS saw significant H outperformance vs As this week. Most others (other than perhaps MATERIALS) were limited in their volatility. No bias by premium tranche seen.  


A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs... Again

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Life growth diverged in Dec among listed peers, yet the market trends weakened overall in Nov-Dec, due to eased momentum of 2025 jumpstart sales.</li><li>Total life premium of six H-share listed insurers fell 2.5% YoY to RMB 82.3bn in Dec, -1.9pct MoM compared to Nov.</li><li>Listed life peers’ premium growth ranged from a peak of increase by 19% YoY (NCI) to a decline of 45% YoY (Sunshine Life) in Dec, as the contribution of agency FYP varied.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Life growth diverged in Dec among listed peers, yet the market trends weakened overall in Nov-Dec, due to eased momentum of 2025 jumpstart sales.Total life premium of six H-share listed insurers fell 2.5% YoY to RMB 82.3bn in Dec, -1.9pct MoM compared to Nov.Listed life peers’ premium growth ranged from a peak of increase by 19% YoY (NCI) to a decline of 45% YoY (Sunshine Life) in Dec, as the contribution of agency FYP varied.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Insurance - 11/12M Monthly: Life Sales Diverged During the Jumpstart

<ul>
<li>AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.</li>
<li>The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.</li>
<li>The VERY WIDE Tech spreads bifurcated. SMIC (981) and Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385) both continued strongly. China Rail Signal (3969) and Flat Glass (6865) widened again.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
The VERY WIDE Tech spreads bifurcated. SMIC (981) and Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385) both continued strongly. China Rail Signal (3969) and Flat Glass (6865) widened again.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Further, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs

<ul><li>Life premium growth eased in Oct as expected, due to the release of front-loaded demands in Jul/Aug prior to the PIR cut, which dragged the rise of 10M24 premiums.</li><li>Except CPIC Life (+2.3% YoY), other life peers’ premiums declined in Oct, as China Life/Ping An Life/New China Life/PICC Life slid 2.6%/2.0%/0.2%/2.8% respectively.</li><li>Health momentum remained strong, where Ping An Health and PICC Health grew 10.5%/2.6% YoY in Oct following a six-month increasing streak. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Life premium growth eased in Oct as expected, due to the release of front-loaded demands in Jul/Aug prior to the PIR cut, which dragged the rise of 10M24 premiums.Except CPIC Life (+2.3% YoY), other life peers’ premiums declined in Oct, as China Life/Ping An Life/New China Life/PICC Life slid 2.6%/2.0%/0.2%/2.8% respectively.Health momentum remained strong, where Ping An Health and PICC Health grew 10.5%/2.6% YoY in Oct following a six-month increasing streak. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Insurance - Life Premium Retreated as Expected, P&C Grew with Auto Sales Momentum

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.8% as of Nov 8th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.1ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, real estate, financials and offset by consumer staples, information technology, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BAIYUNSHAN PH, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.8% as of Nov 8th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.1ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, real estate, financials and offset by consumer staples, information technology, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BAIYUNSHAN PH, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 8th):Baiyunshan, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ

China

The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited, through its subsidiaries, offers a range of property and casualty insurance products. The Company also offers asset management services for a variety of customers throughout China.

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People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025): AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs... Again

Tech and Financials were big movers for the week in H/A spreads. AH Premia are, on average, at the tightest levels in 5yrs but there are still...

Travis Lundy

China Insurance - 11/12M Monthly: Life Sales Diverged During the Jumpstart

Life growth diverged in Dec among listed peers, yet the market trends weakened overall in Nov-Dec, due to eased momentum of 2025 jumpstart sales.

CMB International

A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Jan 2025): AH Premia Fall Further, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs

AH Premia are now the at the lowest average level in 5yrs. Foreigners appear to continue to sell As. Wide spreads are still a buy.

Travis Lundy

China Insurance - Life Premium Retreated as Expected, P&C Grew with Auto Sales Momentum

Life premium growth eased in Oct as expected, due to the release of front-loaded demands in Jul/Aug prior to the PIR cut, which dragged the rise of...

CMB International

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 8th):Baiyunshan, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for baiyunshan, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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