Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/people-s-insurance-co-group-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:362:1" rel="noopener">People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)</a> has bounced off its lifetime low implied stub and simple ratio (PICC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a>); but still trades below its historical trailing/forward metrics.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PICC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK) has bounced off its lifetime low implied stub and simple ratio (PICC/PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)); but still trades below its historical trailing/forward metrics.
Preceding my comments on PICC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Life premium growth eased in Oct as expected, due to the release of front-loaded demands in Jul/Aug prior to the PIR cut, which dragged the rise of 10M24 premiums.</li><li>Except CPIC Life (+2.3% YoY), other life peers’ premiums declined in Oct, as China Life/Ping An Life/New China Life/PICC Life slid 2.6%/2.0%/0.2%/2.8% respectively.</li><li>Health momentum remained strong, where Ping An Health and PICC Health grew 10.5%/2.6% YoY in Oct following a six-month increasing streak. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Life premium growth eased in Oct as expected, due to the release of front-loaded demands in Jul/Aug prior to the PIR cut, which dragged the rise of 10M24 premiums.Except CPIC Life (+2.3% YoY), other life peers’ premiums declined in Oct, as China Life/Ping An Life/New China Life/PICC Life slid 2.6%/2.0%/0.2%/2.8% respectively.Health momentum remained strong, where Ping An Health and PICC Health grew 10.5%/2.6% YoY in Oct following a six-month increasing streak. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Insurance - Life Premium Retreated as Expected, P&C Grew with Auto Sales Momentum

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in October, I wrote in <a href="https://skr.ma/gLnnk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PICC's (1339 HK) Lifetime Low Implied Stub</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/people-s-insurance-co-group-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:362:1" rel="noopener">People's Insurance (1339 HK)</a> was trading at an all-time low implied stub. It's widened further since. </li>
<li>Over the past 12-months, excluding PICC's 68.98% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a>, the market has assigned HK$42.6bn less for PICC's steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops.</li>
<li>What gives? Falling interest rates is one. EV insurance in another. Yet this bifurcation is extreme.</li>
</ul>


Back in October, I wrote in PICC's (1339 HK) Lifetime Low Implied Stub that People's Insurance (1339 HK) was trading at an all-time low implied stub. It's widened further since. 
Over the past 12-months, excluding PICC's 68.98% stake in PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK), the market has assigned HK$42.6bn less for PICC's steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops.
What gives? Falling interest rates is one. EV insurance in another. Yet this bifurcation is extreme.


PICC's (1339 HK)'s Implied Stub Plumbs New Lows As Interest Rate Cuts Bite

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul><li>Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed profitability for the sub-sector, even though operational headwinds and policy uncertainty remain key challenges for the sector in the latter half of the year.</li><li>Suffice to say the trend in Insurers’ credit risk profiles, measured using Criat’s Credit Cycle Indices (CCCIs), has been non-homogenous across the continent with firms domiciled in economies such as South Korea and Hong Kong facing a substantially higher risk than those domiciled in Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan.</li><li>Strong net investment returns over the past year have helped boost profitability for most of the sub-sector that has increased its exposure to government securities. </li></ul>

Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed profitability for the sub-sector, even though operational headwinds and policy uncertainty remain key challenges for the sector in the latter half of the year.Suffice to say the trend in Insurers’ credit risk profiles, measured using Criat’s Credit Cycle Indices (CCCIs), has been non-homogenous across the continent with firms domiciled in economies such as South Korea and Hong Kong facing a substantially higher risk than those domiciled in Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan.Strong net investment returns over the past year have helped boost profitability for most of the sub-sector that has increased its exposure to government securities. 

Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The insurance sector should definitely warrant more investor attention going forward as some insurance names in the region have had a very strong year in 2022.</li>
<li>Two key markets we view positively in 2023 are China's P&amp;C and Korea's L&amp;H insurance markets, given their favorable industry catalysts and tailwinds. </li>
<li>Among all the insurance stocks in these two markets, we believe PICC P&amp;C and Samsung Life will continue to have an exciting year ahead.</li>
</ul>


The insurance sector should definitely warrant more investor attention going forward as some insurance names in the region have had a very strong year in 2022.
Two key markets we view positively in 2023 are China's P&amp;C and Korea's L&amp;H insurance markets, given their favorable industry catalysts and tailwinds. 
Among all the insurance stocks in these two markets, we believe PICC P&amp;C and Samsung Life will continue to have an exciting year ahead.


APAC Insurers Series (#1): A Hidden Gem in This Bear Market?

China

The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited, through its subsidiaries, offers a range of property and casualty insurance products. The Company also offers asset management services for a variety of customers throughout China.

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People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)

StubWorld: Stay Long PICC (1339 HK)

People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK) has bounced off its lifetime low implied stub and simple ratio (PICC/PICC P&C (2328 HK)); but still trades...

David Blennerhassett

China Insurance - Life Premium Retreated as Expected, P&C Grew with Auto Sales Momentum

Life premium growth eased in Oct as expected, due to the release of front-loaded demands in Jul/Aug prior to the PIR cut, which dragged the rise of...

CMB International

PICC's (1339 HK)'s Implied Stub Plumbs New Lows As Interest Rate Cuts Bite

When the NAV discount/implied stub momentum starts to reverse, go long that People's Insurance (1339 HK), short PICC Property & Casualty (2328 HK).

David Blennerhassett

Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector

Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed...

Criat

APAC Insurers Series (#1): A Hidden Gem in This Bear Market?

China P&C and Korea L&H are two insurance markets in Asia that we view positively in 2023, thanks to the continued catalysts. PICC P&C and Samsung...

Alec Tseung

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