Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual (PPT AU)</a> has received an indicative proposal in which EQT/Baring Private Equity Asia takes Perpetual’s private clients and corporate trustee businesses, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal (RPL AU)</a> the asset management arm. </li>
<li>The A$1.75bn buyout proposal, by way of a $30/share cash Offer - and an undefined Regal scrip alternative - was rejected by Perpetual as it “materially undervalues” the company.</li>
<li>The twist in the proposal is that it is contingent on the termination of the earlier-announced Scheme between Perpetual and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Perpetual (PPT AU) has received an indicative proposal in which EQT/Baring Private Equity Asia takes Perpetual’s private clients and corporate trustee businesses, and Regal (RPL AU) the asset management arm. 
The A$1.75bn buyout proposal, by way of a $30/share cash Offer - and an undefined Regal scrip alternative - was rejected by Perpetual as it “materially undervalues” the company.
The twist in the proposal is that it is contingent on the termination of the earlier-announced Scheme between Perpetual and Pendal Group (PDL AU)



EQT/Baring/Regal's Tilt For Perpetual Muddies Waters on Pendal (PDL AU) Deal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice - pay a premium to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. </li>
<li>The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. 
Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice - pay a premium to merge with Pendal Group (PDL AU) or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. 
The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. 


Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Woodside, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, New Hope, South32, Medibank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Woodside, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, New Hope, South32, Medibank.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 28th): CSL, Woodside, Macquarie, Rio Tinto

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners</a> and BPEA have made a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd</a> at A$30/share in cash. Perpetual would need to terminate the SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>'s Board has rejected the offer. Today's price action is partially driven by arbs selling Pendal shares and buying back their Perpetual shorts. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd</a> price ratio is trading below the levels from August and could move higher if Perpetual and/or the consortium decide not to move ahead.</li>
</ul>



Regal Partners and BPEA have made a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal to acquire Perpetual Ltd at A$30/share in cash. Perpetual would need to terminate the SID with Pendal Group.

Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)'s Board has rejected the offer. Today's price action is partially driven by arbs selling Pendal shares and buying back their Perpetual shorts. 
The Pendal Group / Perpetual Ltd price ratio is trading below the levels from August and could move higher if Perpetual and/or the consortium decide not to move ahead.


Arbs Take Another Hit as Regal's Offer for Perpetual Puts Pendal Deal at Risk

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/o2micro-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36418:1" rel="noopener">O2Micro International (OIIM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vast-industrial-urban-development-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3212:1" rel="noopener">China Vast Industrial Urban Development (6166 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7441:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Medical (SMG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptb-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19198:1" rel="noopener">PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), O2Micro International (OIIM US), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK).
Lowest spreads - Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Tassal (TGR AU), China Vast Industrial Urban Development (6166 HK), Singapore Medical (SMG SP), PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU), Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU).


Merger Arb Mondays (31 Oct) - Jinke, Fengxiang, Lifestyle, Kingston, Pushpay, Nitro, Elmo, DTAC/True

Australia

Pendal Group Limited operates as an investment management company. The Company focuses on portfolio management and advisory services to individuals, institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies. Pendal Group serves customers in Australia.

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Pendal Group (PDL AU)

EQT/Baring/Regal's Tilt For Perpetual Muddies Waters on Pendal (PDL AU) Deal

I would still be inclined to be Short Perpetual, Long Pendal. But this is not an ideal development heading into year-end.

David Blennerhassett

Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 28th): CSL, Woodside, Macquarie, Rio Tinto

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CSL, Woodside, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, New Hope,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Arbs Take Another Hit as Regal's Offer for Perpetual Puts Pendal Deal at Risk

A Regal/BPEA consortium has offered to buy 100% of Perpetual for A$30/share in cash. Perpetual's SID with Pendal will need to be cancelled. Short...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (31 Oct) - Jinke, Fengxiang, Lifestyle, Kingston, Pushpay, Nitro, Elmo, DTAC/True

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (84.7%), Alliance Aviation (48.4%), 111 (40.2%), Genex (25.0%), O2Micro (19.3%), Fengxiang (14.6%),...

Arun George

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