Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q massive beat was driven by TEMU, higher-than expected take rates and other income, in order of importance. </li>
<li>We remain confident PDD's China online marketplace business will face increasing growth headwinds, but also acknowledge that TEMU has been growing on track with lower-than-expected losses.</li>
<li>Earnings growth from PDD's domestic business will be largely offset by losses incurred by TEMU for 2023. Strong 1Q has not fundamentally changed deceleration trend of full-year bottom-line growth trajectory. </li>
</ul>


1Q massive beat was driven by TEMU, higher-than expected take rates and other income, in order of importance. 
We remain confident PDD's China online marketplace business will face increasing growth headwinds, but also acknowledge that TEMU has been growing on track with lower-than-expected losses.
Earnings growth from PDD's domestic business will be largely offset by losses incurred by TEMU for 2023. Strong 1Q has not fundamentally changed deceleration trend of full-year bottom-line growth trajectory. 


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Deciphering Massive 1Q Beat

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>PDD once again surprised by reporting revenue/non-GAAP net income 16.5%/68.8% higher vs. cons. We suggest the beat is  due to the moderate competitive landscape in 1Q23 and strong consumer demand</li>
<li>Yet, we don’t expect PDD to be able to surprise again in 2Q23 because of the intensified competitive landscape, and its new ecosystem strategy;</li>
<li>PDD remains a long run BUY as it’s a key beneficiary of the downward trend of Chinese and global consumption. We slightly raise our forecasts for PDD’s 2023 EPS.  </li>
</ul>


PDD once again surprised by reporting revenue/non-GAAP net income 16.5%/68.8% higher vs. cons. We suggest the beat is  due to the moderate competitive landscape in 1Q23 and strong consumer demand
Yet, we don’t expect PDD to be able to surprise again in 2Q23 because of the intensified competitive landscape, and its new ecosystem strategy;
PDD remains a long run BUY as it’s a key beneficiary of the downward trend of Chinese and global consumption. We slightly raise our forecasts for PDD’s 2023 EPS.  


Pinduoduo (PDD US, BUY, TP US$95) Earnings Review: A Long Term Buy Amid Challenges in 2Q23

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings Inc (PDD US)</a> shares rose 19% on last Friday following 1Q23 revenue of RMB 37.6bn (consensus: RMB 31.9bn) and OP of RMB 6.9bn (consensus: RMB 5.0bn).</li>
<li>The declining margin trend is a significant concern as Pinduoduo won't appear cheap if margins fall short of expectations.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the existence of Temu could be at risk if the US government takes measures to address the De minimis loophole.</li>
</ul>



PDD Holdings Inc (PDD US) shares rose 19% on last Friday following 1Q23 revenue of RMB 37.6bn (consensus: RMB 31.9bn) and OP of RMB 6.9bn (consensus: RMB 5.0bn).
The declining margin trend is a significant concern as Pinduoduo won't appear cheap if margins fall short of expectations.
Meanwhile, the existence of Temu could be at risk if the US government takes measures to address the De minimis loophole.


Pinduoduo: Margin Downtrend and Temu's De Minimis Risk

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 1Q23, total revenue grew by 58% YoY and the operating margin improved to 18% versus 9% in the same period last year.</li>
<li>We believe the company benefited from its low-price products and the low comparison base last year.</li>
<li>We conclude the stock has an upside of 40% and a price target of US$100.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q23, total revenue grew by 58% YoY and the operating margin improved to 18% versus 9% in the same period last year.
We believe the company benefited from its low-price products and the low comparison base last year.
We conclude the stock has an upside of 40% and a price target of US$100.


Pinduoduo (PDD): 1Q23, Up by 58% YoY, 40% Upside

<ul>
<li>The odds are high for PDD to miss consensus for 1Q results this Friday due to high base and deflating domestic growth drivers, despite TEMU's momentum.</li>
<li>Among major China tech companies, PDD is likely to be the only one to register stagnant or even negative earnings growth for FY23, which has not been in the price.</li>
<li>A down cycle for PDD's earnings growth leads us to assign 12x P/E to an estimated non-GAAP net profit of RMB39 billion for FY23, implying 15% downside. </li>
</ul>


The odds are high for PDD to miss consensus for 1Q results this Friday due to high base and deflating domestic growth drivers, despite TEMU's momentum.
Among major China tech companies, PDD is likely to be the only one to register stagnant or even negative earnings growth for FY23, which has not been in the price.
A down cycle for PDD's earnings growth leads us to assign 12x P/E to an estimated non-GAAP net profit of RMB39 billion for FY23, implying 15% downside. 


Pinduoduo(PDD US): The Worst Is yet to Come

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Deciphering Massive 1Q Beat

PDD’s massive 1Q beat didn’t answer the questions around its sustainability. We expect large fluctuations in earnings growth for the rest of 2023...

Eric Chen

Pinduoduo (PDD US, BUY, TP US$95) Earnings Review: A Long Term Buy Amid Challenges in 2Q23

PDD remains a long run BUY as it’s a key beneficiary of the downward trend of Chinese and global consumption. We slightly raise our forecasts for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo: Margin Downtrend and Temu's De Minimis Risk

Declining margins raise valuation concerns, while addressing the De minimis loophole threatens the existence of Pinduoduo's cross-border platform,...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pinduoduo (PDD): 1Q23, Up by 58% YoY, 40% Upside

In 1Q23, total revenue grew by 58% YoY and the operating margin improved significantly. We believe the company benefit from its low-price products...

Ming Lu

Pinduoduo(PDD US): The Worst Is yet to Come

The odds are high for PDD to miss consensus for 1Q results and the next two quarters will be more challenging due to tough comps.

Eric Chen

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