IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to media reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Junro Ito (founder’s son) and Ito-Kogyo. No terms were disclosed.</li>
<li>Bloomberg suggests an MBO deal worth up to JPY9 trillion (US$58 billion), which implies an offer of JPY3,467.89, a 39.3% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The "white knight" MBO undermines <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>’s offer and is a proxy for the restructuring plan's value. Couche-Tard will likely walk if a binding MBO proposal emerges.</li>
</ul>


In response to media reports, Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Junro Ito (founder’s son) and Ito-Kogyo. No terms were disclosed.
Bloomberg suggests an MBO deal worth up to JPY9 trillion (US$58 billion), which implies an offer of JPY3,467.89, a 39.3% premium to the last close price.
The "white knight" MBO undermines Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)’s offer and is a proxy for the restructuring plan's value. Couche-Tard will likely walk if a binding MBO proposal emerges.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The Rumoured MBO Price Underscores the Trapped Value

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The shakeout in clothing and fashion retailing continues, with most of the good fortune spread amongst a smaller group of either very large or very small retail chains and brands. </li>
<li>In specialty, lower cost national chains largely located in the suburbs continued to increase share but premium fashion retailers also had a great year boosting profits.</li>
<li>More dramatic was the startling growth of a few department stores which helped the format increase share of the apparel market for only the 4th time in 20 years.</li>
</ul>


The shakeout in clothing and fashion retailing continues, with most of the good fortune spread amongst a smaller group of either very large or very small retail chains and brands. 
In specialty, lower cost national chains largely located in the suburbs continued to increase share but premium fashion retailers also had a great year boosting profits.
More dramatic was the startling growth of a few department stores which helped the format increase share of the apparel market for only the 4th time in 20 years.


Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I <em>still</em> see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I released 1H24 earnings today as well as details on planned restructuring of its business. Results included some one-off items hitting operating profit as well as lower footfall.</li>
<li>The bigger news was the plan to hive off the non-CVS retail operations into a new company, York Holdings, leaving a newly named 7-Eleven Corporation running CVS globally.</li>
<li>Unusually, Seven also mentioned the possibility of new strategic partners investing in York, including even the "original founding families", suggesting one way of holding on to control.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I released 1H24 earnings today as well as details on planned restructuring of its business. Results included some one-off items hitting operating profit as well as lower footfall.
The bigger news was the plan to hive off the non-CVS retail operations into a new company, York Holdings, leaving a newly named 7-Eleven Corporation running CVS globally.
Unusually, Seven also mentioned the possibility of new strategic partners investing in York, including even the "original founding families", suggesting one way of holding on to control.


7-Eleven Corporation: A Clear Strategy for Long-Term Value, Founding Family Return to Super-Stores

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The Rumoured MBO Price Underscores the Trapped Value

The "white knight" MBO undermines Couche-Tard’s offer and is a proxy for the restructuring plan's value. Couche-Tard will likely walk if a binding...

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...

Michael Causton

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

7-Eleven Corporation: A Clear Strategy for Long-Term Value, Founding Family Return to Super-Stores

Seven & I showed some falls in SSS and income in 1H. Plans to restructure business by creating York Holdings for non-CVS retail ops, with the...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The Rumoured MBO Price Underscores the Trapped Value

The "white knight" MBO undermines Couche-Tard’s offer and is a proxy for the restructuring plan's value. Couche-Tard will likely walk if a binding...

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Japan Fashion Retailing: Stores Still Popular and Profit Soars for Some

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: ​the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...

Michael Causton

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

7-Eleven Corporation: A Clear Strategy for Long-Term Value, Founding Family Return to Super-Stores

​Seven & I showed some falls in SSS and income in 1H. Plans to restructure business by creating York Holdings for non-CVS retail ops, with the...

Michael Causton

A major review of Japanese clothing retail markets: the ongoing shakeout benefits large and small chains, but profit growth across the sector is...

Seven & I showed some falls in SSS and income in 1H. Plans to restructure business by creating York Holdings for non-CVS retail ops, with the...