Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A lot has been said and written about Trial's IPO but much of this relates to pass performance and comparing it to supermarkets.</li>
<li>As the company's latest Trial Go store in Fukuoka shows,  Trial is a tech-based retailer and a true discounter, and discounting is where the growth is in Japanese FMCG.</li>
<li>Trial thinks its technology can reduce costs significantly, improving margins while allowing it to roll out more small format stores to compete with convenience stores. It may be right.</li>
</ul>


A lot has been said and written about Trial's IPO but much of this relates to pass performance and comparing it to supermarkets.
As the company's latest Trial Go store in Fukuoka shows,  Trial is a tech-based retailer and a true discounter, and discounting is where the growth is in Japanese FMCG.
Trial thinks its technology can reduce costs significantly, improving margins while allowing it to roll out more small format stores to compete with convenience stores. It may be right.


Trial IPO to Drive Tech Innovation Targeting Convenience Stores

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Over the past 2 years, customers cut back drastically on shopping and travel. Many worked in home offices in sweatpants and t-shirts.  </li>
<li>But now, people are vaccinated, and lockdowns have lifted. Even Japan’s borders are starting to spring open.  </li>
<li>Consumers are looking for ways to make up for lost time – we highlight 3 beneficiaries of revenge shopping. </li>
</ul>


Over the past 2 years, customers cut back drastically on shopping and travel. Many worked in home offices in sweatpants and t-shirts.  
But now, people are vaccinated, and lockdowns have lifted. Even Japan’s borders are starting to spring open.  
Consumers are looking for ways to make up for lost time – we highlight 3 beneficiaries of revenge shopping. 


Japan Retail | 3 Stocks to Buy for Revenge Shopping

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team has suggested a methodology change to the Nikkei 225 Average.</li>
<li>It involves capping stocks, creating a method for re-weighting once capped then stocks fall, and they recommend changing to a semi-annual Periodic Review - twice a year rather than once.</li>
<li>More interestingly, they also change the "High Liquidity" definition to be related to traded value not volume, which starts to favour higher-market cap stocks with more shares out.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index Team has suggested a methodology change to the Nikkei 225 Average.
It involves capping stocks, creating a method for re-weighting once capped then stocks fall, and they recommend changing to a semi-annual Periodic Review - twice a year rather than once.
More interestingly, they also change the "High Liquidity" definition to be related to traded value not volume, which starts to favour higher-market cap stocks with more shares out.


Nikkei 225 Methodology Change. Again. This Time Better But Still Not Good Enough

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Trial IPO to Drive Tech Innovation Targeting Convenience Stores

Trial failed to complete an IPO and is now going again and the same fundamentals outlined in this insight apply today as it is a long-term viewpoint.

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail | 3 Stocks to Buy for Revenge Shopping

We pick three retail stocks - that are trading at a discount to pre-covid levels - and benefit from revenge shopping: Matsukiyo, J Front and Pan...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 Methodology Change. Again. This Time Better But Still Not Good Enough

The Nikkei proposes changes to the Nikkei 225 methodology. There is a cap, a cap re-mark, and a move to twice-annual reviews. And there is also a...

Travis Lundy

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