Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1041" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1">Seven &amp; I's (3382 JP)</a> main general merchandise store (GMS) chain, Ito-Yokado, announced its fifth loss in five years last month, down another ¥1 billion compared to last year.
The chain was always positioned above the middle market and remains relatively expensive and consumers now have far more, and often cheaper, choices.
The chain has been floundering for years but performance is now only getting worse. More stores will need to close. 
This Insight is labelled bearish because of the poor-performance of Ito-Yokado. I remain bullish about the prospects for Seven &amp; I's Seven Eleven division.

Seven &amp; I's (3382 JP) main general merchandise store (GMS) chain, Ito-Yokado, announced its fifth loss in five years last month, down another ¥1 billion compared to last year.
The chain was always positioned above the middle market and remains relatively expensive and consumers now have far more, and often cheaper, choices.
The chain has been floundering for years but performance is now only getting worse. More stores will need to close. 
This Insight is labelled bearish because of the poor-performance of Ito-Yokado. I remain bullish about the prospects for Seven &amp; I's Seven Eleven division.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation reported its 3QFY2019 results on 8th May 2019, Pan Pacific’s first results release post-acquisition of more than 180 UNY stores from FamilyMart UNY Holdings.  The company managed to grow its revenues by 68.8% YoY in 3QFY2019 mainly through this acquisition of FamilyMart’s UNY stores. Operating profit was also up by 50.9% YoY during the same time period, However, the operating margin declined by about 48bps YoY in 3QFY2019 due to the lower margin nature of the acquired UNY stores.

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation reported its 3QFY2019 results on 8th May 2019, Pan Pacific’s first results release post-acquisition of more than 180 UNY stores from FamilyMart UNY Holdings.  The company managed to grow its revenues by 68.8% YoY in 3QFY2019 mainly through this acquisition of FamilyMart’s UNY stores. Operating profit was also up by 50.9% YoY during the same time period, However, the operating margin declined by about 48bps YoY in 3QFY2019 due to the lower margin nature of the acquired UNY stores.

Don Quijote: 3QFY2019 Results, Revenue Falls Short While OP Exceeds Consensus Estimates

<ul>
<li>Japanese Retail is in a secular decline: There are areas in retail that are worse affected than the rest</li>
<li>Falling foot traffic: The biggest problem for Japanese retail</li>
<li>Don Quijote’s recent history and growth potential</li>
<li>Attracting shoppers from multiple store formats helps Don Quijote to expand its target market</li>
<li>Don Quijote is least affected from slowdown in Chinese tourist spending</li>
<li>FamilyMart UNY store conversions to contribute to revenue and EBIT growth over the next five years</li>
<li>New store openings to cap at 25 per year because of UNY store conversions</li>
<li>Valuation: Market unjustly penalized Don Quijote for the UNY acquisition</li>
<li>Change in retail landscape to help make Don Quijote the “DON” in Japanese retail</li>
</ul>


Japanese Retail is in a secular decline: There are areas in retail that are worse affected than the rest
Falling foot traffic: The biggest problem for Japanese retail
Don Quijote’s recent history and growth potential
Attracting shoppers from multiple store formats helps Don Quijote to expand its target market
Don Quijote is least affected from slowdown in Chinese tourist spending
FamilyMart UNY store conversions to contribute to revenue and EBIT growth over the next five years
New store openings to cap at 25 per year because of UNY store conversions
Valuation: Market unjustly penalized Don Quijote for the UNY acquisition
Change in retail landscape to help make Don Quijote the “DON” in Japanese retail


Pan Pacific/Don Quijote: Bringing Joy into Shopping

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Pan Pacific International (7532 JP)</a> (Don Quijote) is on a roll at the moment.
The discount and variety retailer just opened its fourth store in South-East Asia, mixing Japanese restaurants and cafes with a Donki store and a range of Japanese speciality tenants. The store has all the high-level retail entertainment that its Japanese stores offer but with the added cachet of being from Japan and mixing in a lot more in-mall tenants and food outlets. PPI now plans 200 overseas stores in the medium-term.
Back home, PPI is creating new small store formats which have the potential to reach into parts of Japan its big box stores cannot.
At the same time, PPI is beginning the conversion of 100 Uny stores to mixed food and variety stores. With the first six conversions showing sales growth of 83% over 10 months and gross margins up 59%, PPI's expectation of an extra ¥20 billion in operating profit once conversions are complete looks very achievable.
The takeover means PPI is now Japan’s fourth-biggest retailer, up from 15th just three years ago.
These multiple ventures reflect the company’s flexibility, adapting to each local market’s needs with formats to match.
Its recent decision to close down its e-commerce business is not a weakness but a positive move, demonstrating that PPI understands where its strengths lie: in live store entertainment.

Pan Pacific International (7532 JP) (Don Quijote) is on a roll at the moment.
The discount and variety retailer just opened its fourth store in South-East Asia, mixing Japanese restaurants and cafes with a Donki store and a range of Japanese speciality tenants. The store has all the high-level retail entertainment that its Japanese stores offer but with the added cachet of being from Japan and mixing in a lot more in-mall tenants and food outlets. PPI now plans 200 overseas stores in the medium-term.
Back home, PPI is creating new small store formats which have the potential to reach into parts of Japan its big box stores cannot.
At the same time, PPI is beginning the conversion of 100 Uny stores to mixed food and variety stores. With the first six conversions showing sales growth of 83% over 10 months and gross margins up 59%, PPI's expectation of an extra ¥20 billion in operating profit once conversions are complete looks very achievable.
The takeover means PPI is now Japan’s fourth-biggest retailer, up from 15th just three years ago.
These multiple ventures reflect the company’s flexibility, adapting to each local market’s needs with formats to match.
Its recent decision to close down its e-commerce business is not a weakness but a positive move, demonstrating that PPI understands where its strengths lie: in live store entertainment.

Donki (7532 JP) Becomes Japan's 4th Biggest Retailer

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/081/407/original/2019-03-09_14-25-50.png?1552109168" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="81407"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-2018-q3-cash-flow-stakes-runners-riders-red-flags" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26816">Insight</a> with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market composite cash flow model reformulates disclosed cash flows into four categories which sum to Change in Cash: -
<ul>
<li>Operating Cash Flow</li>
<li>
Investing Cash Flow (which includes Inventory Cash Flow) 
<ul>
<li>Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Financing Cash Flow</li>
<li>Shareholder Cash Flow  (Equity Cash Flow and Dividend Cash Flow) </li>
</ul>
     =  Change in Cash (including Minorities Cash Flow)
OCF COLLAPSES - In the last three months, Japan's non-financial companies generated only ¥2.1t in Operating Cash Flow (OCF), ¥10.1t less than the previous quarter. ¥2.1t is the lowest quarterly OCF since 2016-Q2, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is the largest since 2009 and represents a substantial 'red flag' for the market.
FCF NEGATIVE - Aggregate spending on fixed assets shrunk by ¥4.5t qoq to ¥4.6t resulting in Free Cash Flow for the quarter of -¥2.5t, the first negative Free Cash Flow quarter since 2012-Q4. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> together generated ¥3.3t in positive Free Cash Flow for the quarter. Excluding these three companies, the aggregate total quarterly FCF was -¥5.8t, equivalent to an annualised Free Cash Flow yield of -4.3% for the universe of listed non-financial companies.
BACK TO BORROWING - To finance ¥4.5t in dividend payments, Japanese non-financial companies borrowed ¥4.8t in new debt, sold investment securities worth ¥1.9t (the most significant reduction since 2016-Q2) and raised 0.28t in new equity net of share buybacks. This increase in financing cash flow was the largest in any quarter since 2009.
SECTORS &amp; STOCKS - In the DETAIL below, we also look at sector cash flow trends and provide brief comments on some of the most significant changes in individual cash flows over the last three months including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Pan Pacific International (7532 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1040" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6391:1">I</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6391:1">DOM (7599 JP)</a>



Source: Japan Analytics

JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous Insight with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market composite cash flow model reformulates disclosed cash flows into four categories which sum to Change in Cash: -

Operating Cash Flow

Investing Cash Flow (which includes Inventory Cash Flow) 

Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow)


Financing Cash Flow
Shareholder Cash Flow  (Equity Cash Flow and Dividend Cash Flow) 

     =  Change in Cash (including Minorities Cash Flow)
OCF COLLAPSES - In the last three months, Japan's non-financial companies generated only ¥2.1t in Operating Cash Flow (OCF), ¥10.1t less than the previous quarter. ¥2.1t is the lowest quarterly OCF since 2016-Q2, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is the largest since 2009 and represents a substantial 'red flag' for the market.
FCF NEGATIVE - Aggregate spending on fixed assets shrunk by ¥4.5t qoq to ¥4.6t resulting in Free Cash Flow for the quarter of -¥2.5t, the first negative Free Cash Flow quarter since 2012-Q4. Softbank Group (9984 JP), NTT Docomo (9437 JP) and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) together generated ¥3.3t in positive Free Cash Flow for the quarter. Excluding these three companies, the aggregate total quarterly FCF was -¥5.8t, equivalent to an annualised Free Cash Flow yield of -4.3% for the universe of listed non-financial companies.
BACK TO BORROWING - To finance ¥4.5t in dividend payments, Japanese non-financial companies borrowed ¥4.8t in new debt, sold investment securities worth ¥1.9t (the most significant reduction since 2016-Q2) and raised 0.28t in new equity net of share buybacks. This increase in financing cash flow was the largest in any quarter since 2009.
SECTORS &amp; STOCKS - In the DETAIL below, we also look at sector cash flow trends and provide brief comments on some of the most significant changes in individual cash flows over the last three months including Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP), Pan Pacific International (7532 JP),  Lawson (2651 JP), and IDOM (7599 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Largest QoQ Decline in Operating Cash Flow in a Decade - Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Ito-Yokado: Yet More Losses

Seven & I's (3382 JP) main general merchandise store (GMS) chain, Ito-Yokado, announced its fifth loss in five years last month, down another...

Michael Causton

Don Quijote: 3QFY2019 Results, Revenue Falls Short While OP Exceeds Consensus Estimates

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation reported its 3QFY2019 results on 8th May 2019, Pan Pacific’s first results release post-acquisition...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pan Pacific/Don Quijote: Bringing Joy into Shopping

Japanese Retail is in a secular decline: There are areas in retail that are worse affected than the rest Falling foot traffic: The biggest problem...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Donki (7532 JP) Becomes Japan's 4th Biggest Retailer

Pan Pacific International (7532 JP) (Don Quijote) is on a roll at the moment. The discount and variety retailer just opened its fourth store in...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 Japan • Largest QoQ Decline in Operating Cash Flow in a Decade - Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous Insight with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market...

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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