Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-eagle-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3835:1" rel="noopener">Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poly-culture-group-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4729:1" rel="noopener">Poly Culture (3636 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals this week: Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU); Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ); Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP); and JMDC (4483 JP).
Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), United Malt (UMG AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), and T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

<ul>
<li>Plastic products manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a> has <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02711138-3A626039?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an unconditional off-market takeover from its major shareholder, Raphael Geminder.</li>
<li>Geminder, with a current stake of 50%, is offering - via wholly-owned entity Kin Group - A$0.68/share, a paltry 0.07% premium to last close. Shares recently touched an all-time low.</li>
<li>The Offer is (should be) open for a month. As the bid is unconditional, there's nothing to stop Geminder from buying shares higher, then simply lifting his Offer price. </li>
</ul>


Plastic products manufacturer Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU) has announced an unconditional off-market takeover from its major shareholder, Raphael Geminder.
Geminder, with a current stake of 50%, is offering - via wholly-owned entity Kin Group - A$0.68/share, a paltry 0.07% premium to last close. Shares recently touched an all-time low.
The Offer is (should be) open for a month. As the bid is unconditional, there's nothing to stop Geminder from buying shares higher, then simply lifting his Offer price. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a> has disclosed an unconditional takeover proposal from Raphael Geminder at A$0.68 per share, a 0.7% premium to the undisturbed price (12 September).</li>
<li>Mr. Geminder's justification for a little-to-no premium offer is based on the premise that minorities are clambering for a liquidity event to exit a no-hope situation. </li>
<li>The offer price is unattractive on any reasonable metric. A successful privatisation would require a bump. The shares closed 6.6% higher than the offer. </li>
</ul>



Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU) has disclosed an unconditional takeover proposal from Raphael Geminder at A$0.68 per share, a 0.7% premium to the undisturbed price (12 September).
Mr. Geminder's justification for a little-to-no premium offer is based on the premise that minorities are clambering for a liquidity event to exit a no-hope situation. 
The offer price is unattractive on any reasonable metric. A successful privatisation would require a bump. The shares closed 6.6% higher than the offer. 


Pact Group (PGH AU): Raphael Geminder’s Opportunistic Proposal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.</li>
</ul>


There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The index changes for the ASX Index family for the March 2023 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday 3rd March 2023.</li>
<li>There will be one, two, and four changes for ASX 20, ASX 100, and ASX 200 indices, respectively. There will also be 12 ADDs and 9 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows, short interest, and recent price performance of the names involved in the rebalance event.</li>
</ul>


The index changes for the ASX Index family for the March 2023 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday 3rd March 2023.
There will be one, two, and four changes for ASX 20, ASX 100, and ASX 200 indices, respectively. There will also be 12 ADDs and 9 DELs for ASX 300.
In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows, short interest, and recent price performance of the names involved in the rebalance event.


Quiddity ASX Rebal Mar 23: Good Hit Rate, Some Short Buildup, Decent Impact

Australia

Pact Group Holdings Ltd manufactures packaging and other related products. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures packaging and other products that service customers in the food, dairy, beverage, chemical, agricultural, industrial and other sectors throughout Australia, New Zealand and Asia.

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Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Geminder's Opening Salvo For Pact?

You have a hard floor of A$0.68 or a downside of ~5.5%. The risk/reward is attractive on the back of a bump, but it's not a super liquid arb...

David Blennerhassett

Pact Group (PGH AU): Raphael Geminder’s Opportunistic Proposal

The offer price is unattractive on any reasonable metric. A successful privatisation would require a bump. The shares closed 6.6% higher than the...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Rebal Mar 23: Good Hit Rate, Some Short Buildup, Decent Impact

The LONG ADDs - SHORT DELs trade seems interesting. According to my estimates, the average number of days-to-trade for the ADDs and DELs are +11.3...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Geminder's Opening Salvo For Pact?

You have a hard floor of A$0.68 or a downside of ~5.5%. The risk/reward is attractive on the back of a bump, but it's not a super liquid arb...

David Blennerhassett

Pact Group (PGH AU): Raphael Geminder’s Opportunistic Proposal

The offer price is unattractive on any reasonable metric. A successful privatisation would require a bump. The shares closed 6.6% higher than the...

Arun George

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Rebal Mar 23: Good Hit Rate, Some Short Buildup, Decent Impact

The LONG ADDs - SHORT DELs trade seems interesting. According to my estimates, the average number of days-to-trade for the ADDs and DELs are +11.3...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes