Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today&rsquo;s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative surprises, but the key swing factor over the past month appears to have been the 25% slide in the iron ore price, reflecting lower steel demand associated with renewed weakness in Chinese housing markets but also a lift in expected future iron ore production. Importantly, short-term gyrations in volatile commodity markets are unlikely to sway the RBA, nor does the the slide in the iron ore price provide a positive narrative to ease monetary policy. The RBA has plenty of scope to cut interest rates: the economy remains stuck in a nominal recession, revenue conditions are subdued, there is still considerable slack in the labour market, growth in private sector wages has reached a record low and the inflation outlook does not pose an obstacle to another rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; But the central bank will likely wait for another month.

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today&rsquo;s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative surprises, but the key swing factor over the past month appears to have been the 25% slide in the iron ore price, reflecting lower steel demand associated with renewed weakness in Chinese housing markets but also a lift in expected future iron ore production. Importantly, short-term gyrations in volatile commodity markets are unlikely to sway the RBA, nor does the the slide in the iron ore price provide a positive narrative to ease monetary policy. The RBA has plenty of scope to cut interest rates: the economy remains stuck in a nominal recession, revenue conditions are subdued, there is still considerable slack in the labour market, growth in private sector wages has reached a record low and the inflation outlook does not pose an obstacle to another rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; But the central bank will likely wait for another month.

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

Australia

Pro-Pac Packaging Limited manufactures and distributes biodegradable, flowable, voidfill packaging products as well as general industrial packaging products.

Meteoric Resources NL is a gold and copper-gold exploration company.  The Company's primary exploration activities are situated in the Tennant Creek gold field in the Northern Territory and in the Peak Hill and Yilgarn regions of Western Australia.

GreenX Metals Limited provides exploration and mining services. The Company explores and develops copper and other critical mineral projects. GreenX Metals serves customers worldwide.

Musgrave Minerals Ltd. explores for minerals in Australia.  The Company operates on the Musgrave Province in South Australia.

Base Resources Limited is a resources developer. The Company develops and produces mineral sand. Base Resources serves customers in Africa and Australia.

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

OreCorp Limited is a mineral resource exploration company. The company acquires, explores and develops properties for gold, nickel, copper and other base metal deposits.

Encounter Resources Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company focuses in the methodological exploration and the development of base metals, manganese and uranium resources in Australia.

Santana Minerals Limited focuses on the exploration of gold and silver. The Company explores for, develops and retails precious metals mined throughout Mexico.

Bisalloy Steel Group Limited imports, distributes and processes specialty steels and metals in Australia and New Zealand.  The Company's products include stainless steels, engineering steels, quenched and tempered steel plate, flat rolled aluminium, carbon tube, pipe and fittings. Bisalloy also provides heat treating, cutting, slitting, blanking and polishing services.

Alucon Public Company Limited manufactures a variety of aluminum products, including collapsible tubes for toothpaste, monobloc aerosol cans for cosmetic products, rigid wall containers for pesticides, technical impact extrusions for use as casings for electronic parts or condenser shells, and aluminum slugs for downstream production of aluminum tubes and cans.

Thong Guan Industries Berhad is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, trades plastic and paper products.  Thong Guan also trades beverages including tea and coffee and machinery.

United Paper PCL manufactures and distributes paper products. The Company's product lines include liner boards and corrugated medium which are generally used for the production of corrugated paper containers.

Everest Kanto Cylinder Limited manufactures high pressure gas cylinders and cascades for storage of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG).

Daibochi Plastic and Packaging Industry Bhd manufactures and prints plastic bags and packaging materials.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development.

Daibochi Plastic & Packaging Industry (DPP MK)

Seha Corp. specializes in producing manila paperboards.  The Company's products include coated and uncoated duplex boards, craft boards, and corrugated paper. Seha distributes its products to the domestic and international packaging industry.  In addition, the Company operates environmental technology business such as water treatment facility construction.

Suzhou Yangtze New Materials Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells organic coated sheets and its substrates. The Company's main products include organic coated sheet products and its substrates products.

Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd. researches and designs packaging solutions and provides packaging services.  The company manufacturers wooden, paper, foam, and plastic packaging for multiple businesses.  The company serves customers around the world.

PT. Panca Budi Idaman produces and distributes plastic packaging products. The Company supplies plastic bags, rolls, sacks, and sheets for agriculture, medical, and food and beverages industries. Panca Budi Idaman serves clients in Indonesia.

Samyang Packaging Corporation manufactures plastic containers. The Company produces and sells polyethylene terephthalate bottles and other products. Samyang Packaging also provides processing and recycling services. Samyang Packaging serves clients the Republic of Korea.

Pact Group Holdings Ltd manufactures packaging and other related products. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures packaging and other products that service customers in the food, dairy, beverage, chemical, agricultural, industrial and other sectors throughout Australia, New Zealand and Asia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today’s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative...

Sam Ferraro

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past...

Sam Ferraro

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)