Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats, Moat Investing

Moat Investing

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats

We are a group of experienced investors that like to dig deeper into stocks to find growth stories at a reasonable price with strong economic moats. We also aim to conduct high-quality analysis by doing deep dive on valuations, key business drivers, risk/reward, and different future scenarios.

GARP with strong economic moats

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are extremely positive on MercadoLibre and Ozon.</li>
<li>Sea Limited is also one of our top stocks even though we think valuation is stretched.</li>
<li>Growth in 2020 has been fueled by the pandemic, although the process was already in place.</li>
<li>Top online marketplaces globally accounted for $2.67 trillion in 2020, of which Taobao, Tmall, and Amazon represented 2/3.</li>
<li>Emerging marketplaces are disrupting traditional commerce platforms and posing new challenges to the banking sector and the global supply chain.</li>
</ul>


We are extremely positive on MercadoLibre and Ozon.
Sea Limited is also one of our top stocks even though we think valuation is stretched.
Growth in 2020 has been fueled by the pandemic, although the process was already in place.
Top online marketplaces globally accounted for $2.67 trillion in 2020, of which Taobao, Tmall, and Amazon represented 2/3.
Emerging marketplaces are disrupting traditional commerce platforms and posing new challenges to the banking sector and the global supply chain.


Why Emerging Marketplaces MercadoLibre, Ozon, And Sea Limited Will Continue Creating Value Long Term

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>, which means 'opening a kiosk' in Indonesian, is a leading e-commerce player in non-Tier 1 cities in Indonesia, with a market share of 35% in 2020 based on GMV (gross merchandise value), according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Bukalapak carries out its main business activities through the mobile platform <em>Bukalapak</em> and <em>Bukalapak Partners</em>. Bukalapak has increased its IPO size by about a third to $1.5 billion due to strong demand, according to press reports. Bookbuilding will close on 19 July and the shares are set to list on 6 August. </p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the rate of e-commerce adoption in Indonesia as more consumers are reluctant to travel and started changing their shopping habits to online shopping, due to personal preferences or lockdown restrictions. The share of e-commerce of total retail spending in Indonesia has grown from 5.6% in 2017 to around 22% in 2020 and will reach 35.9% in 2025, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Like its peers, Bukalapak is benefiting from this market tailwind. Bukalapak’s strategy of focusing on consumers in the non-Tier 1 area and the mass market in the Tier 1 area results in a relatively small overlap (less than 20%) between its customers and customers of other online marketplaces such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>'s Shopee, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>'s Lazada. Competitors generally target the affluent segment of the market. Overall, Bukalapak's fundamentals tick all the right boxes of rising monetisation, lower losses and declining cash burn, in our view. We will discuss valuation in our next note. </p></div>

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ), which means 'opening a kiosk' in Indonesian, is a leading e-commerce player in non-Tier 1 cities in Indonesia, with a market share of 35% in 2020 based on GMV (gross merchandise value), according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Bukalapak carries out its main business activities through the mobile platform Bukalapak and Bukalapak Partners. Bukalapak has increased its IPO size by about a third to $1.5 billion due to strong demand, according to press reports. Bookbuilding will close on 19 July and the shares are set to list on 6 August. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the rate of e-commerce adoption in Indonesia as more consumers are reluctant to travel and started changing their shopping habits to online shopping, due to personal preferences or lockdown restrictions. The share of e-commerce of total retail spending in Indonesia has grown from 5.6% in 2017 to around 22% in 2020 and will reach 35.9% in 2025, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Like its peers, Bukalapak is benefiting from this market tailwind. Bukalapak’s strategy of focusing on consumers in the non-Tier 1 area and the mass market in the Tier 1 area results in a relatively small overlap (less than 20%) between its customers and customers of other online marketplaces such as Sea Ltd (SE US)'s Shopee, Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) and Alibaba Group (BABA US)'s Lazada. Competitors generally target the affluent segment of the market. Overall, Bukalapak's fundamentals tick all the right boxes of rising monetisation, lower losses and declining cash burn, in our view. We will discuss valuation in our next note. 

Bukalapak IPO Initiation: Island Shopping

<ul>
<li>The number of orders reached 34.1 million (up 161% YoY);</li>
<li>GMV reached RUB 74.2 bln (up 135% YoY);</li>
<li>Adjusted EBITDA was RUB - 4.9 bln, equal to 6.5% of GMV, pretty much in line with Q1 2020 (RUB 4.5 bln equal to 14.2% of GMV) despite volumes.</li>
<li>Operating cash flow was RUB - 12.1 bln (RUB - 2.4 bln in Q1 2020).</li>
</ul>


The number of orders reached 34.1 million (up 161% YoY);
GMV reached RUB 74.2 bln (up 135% YoY);
Adjusted EBITDA was RUB - 4.9 bln, equal to 6.5% of GMV, pretty much in line with Q1 2020 (RUB 4.5 bln equal to 14.2% of GMV) despite volumes.
Operating cash flow was RUB - 12.1 bln (RUB - 2.4 bln in Q1 2020).


Ozon Holdings: Investment Thesis Confirmed After Q1 Results

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of <em>AHS Recycle</em> (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), <em>PJT Marketplace</em> (B2B channel) and <em>Paipai Marketplace</em> (B2C channel). </p></div><div>
<p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.00-15.00 per ADS, AiHuiShou will have a market cap of $3.1 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $205.7 million. The raise is materially below the rumoured target raise of $500 million to $1 billion, according to press reports.</p>
<p>Existing shareholders have indicated a total of $100 million of the IPO (44.0% of the ADSs at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The indications of interest from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> and Tiger Global.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-ipo-initiation-turning-the-vicious-cycle-into-a-virtuous-one" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52617" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One</a>, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look.</p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>On a relative valuation basis and at the IPO price range, AiHuiShou is attractively valued on both an EV/Sales and growth adjusted EV/Sales multiples (an EV/Sales/Growth basis). Notably, the last funding round in May 2021 valued AiHuiShou at $19.43 per ordinary share, implying $12.96 per ADS which is broadly in line with the low-end of the IPO price range.</p>
<p>While the lower than expected raise suggest that AiHuiShou received lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanzhun-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33368:1" rel="noopener">Kanzhun (BZ US)</a> suggests that the market may be warming up again to high-growth Chinese ADRs. Overall, we are inclined to participate. </p>
</div></div>

Aihuishou (RERE US) operates the largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China under the brand “ATRenew”, which stands for “all things renew.” The platform consists of AHS Recycle (an omnichannel business for the collection of pre-owned consumer electronics), PJT Marketplace (B2B channel) and Paipai Marketplace (B2C channel). 
At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.00-15.00 per ADS, AiHuiShou will have a market cap of $3.1 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $205.7 million. The raise is materially below the rumoured target raise of $500 million to $1 billion, according to press reports.
Existing shareholders have indicated a total of $100 million of the IPO (44.0% of the ADSs at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The indications of interest from JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) and Tiger Global.
In AiHuiShou IPO Initiation: Turning the Vicious Cycle into a Virtuous One, we stated that AiHuiShou as the largest player as measured by GMV and transacted devices, is well-positioned to capture its fair share of China's pre-owned consumer electronic devices market opportunity. AiHuiShou is delivering on this market opportunity through strong revenue growth, declining loss margin and improving cash burn. AiHuiShou’s business model will also appeal to investors with an ESG mandate. We concluded that AiHuiShou's story warrants a closer look.

On a relative valuation basis and at the IPO price range, AiHuiShou is attractively valued on both an EV/Sales and growth adjusted EV/Sales multiples (an EV/Sales/Growth basis). Notably, the last funding round in May 2021 valued AiHuiShou at $19.43 per ordinary share, implying $12.96 per ADS which is broadly in line with the low-end of the IPO price range.
While the lower than expected raise suggest that AiHuiShou received lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of Kanzhun (BZ US) suggests that the market may be warming up again to high-growth Chinese ADRs. Overall, we are inclined to participate. 


<ul><li>Ozon Holdings is an e-commerce platform operating in Russia that offers the broadest multi-category product selections.</li><li>The company is scaling up very fast and, in Q4, posted over 140% y/y growth in GMV (from 127% in Q3).</li><li>Russia has one of the lowest e-commerce penetrations around 6% in line with LatAm) but it relies on an 83% internet penetration with 113 mln users (first in Europe).</li><li>Ozon has recently launched a loan and a credit service dedicated to its marketplace participants (Ozon platform and Ozon.Card) in the effort to support further users' adoption of its services and high order frequency.</li><li>The valuation seems compelling as the stock is trading at 3.6x Ev/Sales 2022e. We estimate an equity value in the region of $15,6bn, which delivers $75.2 per share with a potential upside of around 34.</li></ul>

Ozon Holdings is an e-commerce platform operating in Russia that offers the broadest multi-category product selections.The company is scaling up very fast and, in Q4, posted over 140% y/y growth in GMV (from 127% in Q3).Russia has one of the lowest e-commerce penetrations around 6% in line with LatAm) but it relies on an 83% internet penetration with 113 mln users (first in Europe).Ozon has recently launched a loan and a credit service dedicated to its marketplace participants (Ozon platform and Ozon.Card) in the effort to support further users' adoption of its services and high order frequency.The valuation seems compelling as the stock is trading at 3.6x Ev/Sales 2022e. We estimate an equity value in the region of $15,6bn, which delivers $75.2 per share with a potential upside of around 34.

Ozon Holdings: A Gem Of The Russian E-Commerce Industry

Russia

Ozon Holdings PLC operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, develops an online marketplace connecting buyers and sellers of merchandise in Russia.

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Ozon Holdings PLC (OZON US)

Why Emerging Marketplaces MercadoLibre, Ozon, And Sea Limited Will Continue Creating Value Long Term

We are extremely positive on MercadoLibre and Ozon. Sea Limited is also one of our top stocks even though we think valuation is stretched. Growth...

Moat Investing

Bukalapak IPO Initiation: Island Shopping

Bukalapak has increased its IPO size by about a third to $1.5 billion due to strong demand. Its fundamentals tick all the right boxes of rising...

Arun George

Ozon Holdings: Investment Thesis Confirmed After Q1 Results

The number of orders reached 34.1 million (up 161% YoY); GMV reached RUB 74.2 bln (up 135% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA was RUB - 4.9 bln, equal to 6.5%...

Moat Investing

AiHuiShou IPO: Valuation Insights

While the lower than expected raise suggest lukewarm investor interest, yesterday's blistering first-day pop of Kanzhun points to improving market...

Arun George

Ozon Holdings: A Gem Of The Russian E-Commerce Industry

Ozon Holdings is an e-commerce platform operating in Russia that offers the broadest multi-category product selections. The company is scaling up...

Moat Investing

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