Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MercadoLibre reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing strong performance across its e-commerce and fintech sectors in Latin America.</li><li>The company's gross merchandise volume (GMV) saw significant growth, with Brazil witnessing a 34% increase year-on-year and Mexico a 27% rise.</li><li>Moreover, the company made substantial gains in market share in these key countries.</li></ul>

MercadoLibre reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing strong performance across its e-commerce and fintech sectors in Latin America.The company's gross merchandise volume (GMV) saw significant growth, with Brazil witnessing a 34% increase year-on-year and Mexico a 27% rise.Moreover, the company made substantial gains in market share in these key countries.

MercadoLibre Inc.: How Are They Successfully Tackling Supply Chain and Fulfillment Challenges? - Major Drivers

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We remain optimistic about MELI’s financial and business risk profile.</li>
<li>If the company achieves investment-grade status in the short term, we believe MELI’s fundamental strengths are already reflected in current spreads.</li>
<li>Weaker-Than-Expected 3Q24 results. MELI's strategic investments in credit growth and logistics expansion significantly affected profitability, with the EBIT margin contracting by 950 bps year-over-year.</li>
</ul>


We remain optimistic about MELI’s financial and business risk profile.
If the company achieves investment-grade status in the short term, we believe MELI’s fundamental strengths are already reflected in current spreads.
Weaker-Than-Expected 3Q24 results. MELI's strategic investments in credit growth and logistics expansion significantly affected profitability, with the EBIT margin contracting by 950 bps year-over-year.


MELI 3Q24: Strategic Credit Growth and Logistics Investments Dampen Short-Term Profitability

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>MercadoLibre continues its climb, hitting new highs in both Average Weight (0.4%) and Funds Invested (23.42%).</li>
<li>In the last six months, 4.2% of funds have added MercadoLibre to their portfolios, while key EM holdings HDFC Bank and AIA Group have seen declining ownership.</li>
<li>20 new positions have been opened over the last 6-months, with Goldman Sachs Global Impact Opportunities and Fidelity Special Situations among the fresh buyers, against only 6 closures.</li>
</ul>


MercadoLibre continues its climb, hitting new highs in both Average Weight (0.4%) and Funds Invested (23.42%).
In the last six months, 4.2% of funds have added MercadoLibre to their portfolios, while key EM holdings HDFC Bank and AIA Group have seen declining ownership.
20 new positions have been opened over the last 6-months, with Goldman Sachs Global Impact Opportunities and Fidelity Special Situations among the fresh buyers, against only 6 closures.


MercadoLibre:  Entering the Global Stage

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P revised MELI’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its BB+ issuer credit rating.</li>
<li>MELI's credit metrics are considerably stronger than its peers in the high-yield rating category</li>
<li>MELI’s bonds have arguably already been trading at the investment grade level, supported by the company’s solid credit metrics for the rating category.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P revised MELI’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its BB+ issuer credit rating.
MELI's credit metrics are considerably stronger than its peers in the high-yield rating category
MELI’s bonds have arguably already been trading at the investment grade level, supported by the company’s solid credit metrics for the rating category.


MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24</li>
<li>Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward</li>
<li>Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco</li>
</ul>


We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24
Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward
Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco


Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

MercadoLibre Inc.: How Are They Successfully Tackling Supply Chain and Fulfillment Challenges? - Major Drivers

MercadoLibre reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing strong performance across its e-commerce and fintech...

Baptista Research

MELI 3Q24: Strategic Credit Growth and Logistics Investments Dampen Short-Term Profitability

A positive outlook on MELI's financial and business risk profile, with potential for slight spread improvement if the investment-grade status is...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre: Entering the Global Stage

MercadoLibre continues its climb, hitting new highs in both Average Weight (0.4%) and Funds Invested (23.42%) among active Global managers.

Steven Holden

MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change

S&P upgrades MELI's credit rating outlook to positive, citing strong credit metrics and potential investment grade status for bonds.

Leandro Gubler

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MercadoLibre Inc.: How Are They Successfully Tackling Supply Chain and Fulfillment Challenges? - Major Drivers

MercadoLibre reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing strong performance across its e-commerce and fintech...

Baptista Research

MELI 3Q24: Strategic Credit Growth and Logistics Investments Dampen Short-Term Profitability

​A positive outlook on MELI's financial and business risk profile, with potential for slight spread improvement if the investment-grade status is...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre: Entering the Global Stage

MercadoLibre continues its climb, hitting new highs in both Average Weight (0.4%) and Funds Invested (23.42%) among active Global managers.

Steven Holden

MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change

​S&P upgrades MELI's credit rating outlook to positive, citing strong credit metrics and potential investment grade status for bonds.

Leandro Gubler

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

​Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

Victor Galliano

A positive outlook on MELI's financial and business risk profile, with potential for slight spread improvement if the investment-grade status is...

S&P upgrades MELI's credit rating outlook to positive, citing strong credit metrics and potential investment grade status for bonds.

Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...