IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> has disclosed a weak 4Q materially below guidance due to cost overruns and JPY6,875 million in impairments. The results did not provide an update on Bain's tender.</li>
<li>The weak 4Q has raised concerns that Bain would reconsider terms. Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition. </li>
<li>Bain is likely to consider the results a reflection of near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The annualised spread for a March-end completion is 9.8%.</li>
</ul>



Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has disclosed a weak 4Q materially below guidance due to cost overruns and JPY6,875 million in impairments. The results did not provide an update on Bain's tender.
The weak 4Q has raised concerns that Bain would reconsider terms. Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition. 
Bain is likely to consider the results a reflection of near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The annualised spread for a March-end completion is 9.8%.


Outsourcing (2427 JP): The Weak 4Q Unlikely to Deter Bain

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genetron-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28435:1" rel="noopener">Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qv-equities-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24284:1" rel="noopener">QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Lithium Power International (LPI AU), Altium Ltd (ALU AU). 

Lowest spreads - Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (19 Feb) - Outsourcing, JSR, Shinko, YSK, Vinda, Altium, Azure, Ansarada

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Nobody "named" having &gt;5.0% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing (2427 JP)</a>; no public noise, the stock down; people won't be fighting for a bump unless the delay and impairment are truly meaningless.</li>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> as its FY23 top line surpasses pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>Investors and risk arbitrageurs who are worried about the potential loss of the case to RF SUNY should simply avoid, or sell then avoid <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> shares.</li>
</ul>


Nobody "named" having &gt;5.0% in Outsourcing (2427 JP); no public noise, the stock down; people won't be fighting for a bump unless the delay and impairment are truly meaningless.
Stay long MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) as its FY23 top line surpasses pre-Covid levels.
Investors and risk arbitrageurs who are worried about the potential loss of the case to RF SUNY should simply avoid, or sell then avoid JSR Corp (4185 JP) shares.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>I got a bunch of questions about my Outsourcing comments yesterday in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/outsourcing-2427-earnings-delay-causes-consternation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:127235" rel="noopener">Outsourcing (2427) - Earnings Delay Causes Consternation</a>. </li>
<li>This piece is intended to clarify what I know (still limited), put parameters around what it might be, and draw lines in the sand which I might later erase.</li>
<li>This may be nothing. But it may not be. I will try to answer the questions I received in a kind of Q&amp;A format, and I hope that helps.</li>
</ul>


I got a bunch of questions about my Outsourcing comments yesterday in Outsourcing (2427) - Earnings Delay Causes Consternation. 
This piece is intended to clarify what I know (still limited), put parameters around what it might be, and draw lines in the sand which I might later erase.
This may be nothing. But it may not be. I will try to answer the questions I received in a kind of Q&amp;A format, and I hope that helps.


Outsourcing (2427) MBO Situation - Checking, and Thinking, and Noodling, and Speculating

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> has delayed the announcement of its 4QFY2023 results from 14 to 19 February as the impairment loss accounting is yet to be completed. </li>
<li>Outsourcing has a history of impairments, resulting in missed forecasts, which suggests a weak 4Q. The concern is that a weak 4Q could force Bain to trim its JPY1,755 offer. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol Holdings (2181 JP)</a> guidance cut today suggests a weak 4Q reflects near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The weak 4Q is a valuable cover to justify the less-than-stellar offer.</li>
</ul>



Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has delayed the announcement of its 4QFY2023 results from 14 to 19 February as the impairment loss accounting is yet to be completed. 
Outsourcing has a history of impairments, resulting in missed forecasts, which suggests a weak 4Q. The concern is that a weak 4Q could force Bain to trim its JPY1,755 offer. 

Persol Holdings (2181 JP) guidance cut today suggests a weak 4Q reflects near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The weak 4Q is a valuable cover to justify the less-than-stellar offer.


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Keep Calm or Worry About the Earnings Delay?

Japan

OUTSOURCING Inc. provides outsourcing services for manufacturing companies. The Company mainly provides services for industries such as food, electric equipment, transport machine, chemical, and metal.  Outsourcing also provides worker dispatching service.

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Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)

Outsourcing (2427 JP): The Weak 4Q Unlikely to Deter Bain

Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the IFA's DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition, suggesting Bain maintains terms. The...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Feb) - Outsourcing, JSR, Shinko, YSK, Vinda, Altium, Azure, Ansarada

This week, the highest gross spreads are Probiotec (11.0%), Shinko Electric (7.7%), Genetron (7.1%), JSR (6.8%), Lithium Power (4.6%), Altium...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Outsourcing (2427) MBO Situation - Checking, and Thinking, and Noodling, and Speculating

Outsourcing (2427) MBO Situation: I got a lot of questions. I had several chats. I decided rather than expect more I would answer questions about...

Travis Lundy

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Keep Calm or Worry About the Earnings Delay?

Persol's guidance cut today suggests a potentially weak 4Q reflects near-term industry weakness. The ongoing impairments are a valuable cover for...

Arun George

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