Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 31st October, AustralianSuper (with 13.67% of shares out and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>'s largest shareholder) <a href="https://www.australiansuper.com/-/media/australian-super/files/about-us/media-releases/australiansuper-rejects-brookfield-bid-for-origin-energy.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">argued</a> the Brookfield/EIG-backed Consortium Offer remained substantially below its estimate of fair value.</li>
<li>Brookfield/EIG have now increased their Offer by 8% to $9.53/share from $8.81/share, which now comprises cash components of A$6.59/share and US$1.86/share. A consideration-reducing fully-franked dividend of A$0.39/share is expected.</li>
<li>
The Offer is declared "best and final." It is above the top-end of the IE's valuation range. AustralianSuper should accept the revised terms. But they say no.</li>
</ul>


On the 31st October, AustralianSuper (with 13.67% of shares out and Origin Energy (ORG AU)'s largest shareholder) argued the Brookfield/EIG-backed Consortium Offer remained substantially below its estimate of fair value.
Brookfield/EIG have now increased their Offer by 8% to $9.53/share from $8.81/share, which now comprises cash components of A$6.59/share and US$1.86/share. A consideration-reducing fully-franked dividend of A$0.39/share is expected.

The Offer is declared "best and final." It is above the top-end of the IE's valuation range. AustralianSuper should accept the revised terms. But they say no.


Origin: Brookfield Bumps. AustralianSuper Say Meh.

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Shareholders have approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>'s acquisition by TPG and IVC is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> will be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 3 November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> misses out this time but should be added to the index late November or at the regular rebalance in December.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders have approved Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)'s acquisition by TPG and IVC is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November.

Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) will be replaced by Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 3 November.

Boss Resources (BOE AU) misses out this time but should be added to the index late November or at the regular rebalance in December.


S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Emerald Resources (EMR) To Replace Invocare (IVC)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, Haitong International.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Healius (HLS AU), Haitong International.
Lowest spreads - Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Chindata Group (CD US), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Azure Minerals (AZS AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (30 Oct) - JSR, Eoflow, Azure Minerals, Symbio, Hollysys, Haitong Intl

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

Australia

Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas and LPG. Origin Energy also holds a generation portfolio and fuel position and a renewable energy portfolio, as well as unconventional gas and LNG interests.

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Origin Energy (ORG AU)

Origin: Brookfield Bumps. AustralianSuper Say Meh.

Trading down 5.3% to A$8.59/share as I type. Not a great outcome for minorities. Massive uncertainty. Alongside significant downside potential. ...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Emerald Resources (EMR) To Replace Invocare (IVC)

Emerald Resources replaces Invocare in the ASX200 at the close on 3 Nov. Boss Energy misses out but could be in the index in the next 6 weeks. The...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (30 Oct) - JSR, Eoflow, Azure Minerals, Symbio, Hollysys, Haitong Intl

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (71.8%), Eoflow (38.2%), Hollysys (22.4%), Symbio (10.1%), JSR (9.3%), Healius (8.9%), Haitong Intl...

Arun George

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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