Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>'s Scheme vote today was always going to be a tenuous affair with AusSuper's ~17.5% blocking stake, and Perpetual also firmly in the "against" camp. </li>
<li>The Scheme meeting has now been adjourned. Origin said that based on the proxy votes, it was unlikely the Scheme would have achieved the required 75% approval by shareholders.</li>
<li>In addition, the Brookfield-led consortium has<a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02744202-2A1489691?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> pitched a alternative non-binding and indicative proposal</a> which Origin views as inferior to the existing Scheme, and has significant reservations as to its complexity.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU)'s Scheme vote today was always going to be a tenuous affair with AusSuper's ~17.5% blocking stake, and Perpetual also firmly in the "against" camp. 
The Scheme meeting has now been adjourned. Origin said that based on the proxy votes, it was unlikely the Scheme would have achieved the required 75% approval by shareholders.
In addition, the Brookfield-led consortium has pitched a alternative non-binding and indicative proposal which Origin views as inferior to the existing Scheme, and has significant reservations as to its complexity.


Origin: Brookfield's "Inferior" Alternative Proposal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December. There are unlikely to be any changes for indices higher up the hierarchy.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 7-11 days of ADV in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will be larger at between 11-23 days of ADV.</li>
<li>Short interest has decreased on the potential inclusions and increased on the potential deletions. There is significant pre-positioning on some of the stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December. There are unlikely to be any changes for indices higher up the hierarchy.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 7-11 days of ADV in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will be larger at between 11-23 days of ADV.
Short interest has decreased on the potential inclusions and increased on the potential deletions. There is significant pre-positioning on some of the stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Many months ago I suggested the JIC Tender Offer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> was not overwhelmingly high-priced, but that it would be "heavy" for months to come. </li>
<li>FUD and Flows would widen the spread. And they did.</li>
<li>Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.</li>
</ul>


Many months ago I suggested the JIC Tender Offer JSR Corp (4185 JP) was not overwhelmingly high-priced, but that it would be "heavy" for months to come. 
FUD and Flows would widen the spread. And they did.
Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.</li>
<li>With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.</li>
<li>If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.</li>
</ul>


The Origin Energy (ORG AU) scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.
With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.
If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20649:1" rel="noopener">Irc Ltd (1029 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijtt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19461:1" rel="noopener">IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Eoflow (294090 KS), 111 Inc (YI US), Irc Ltd (1029 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Origin Energy (ORG AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Healius (HLS AU). 
Lowest spreads - Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (20 Nov) - Eoflow, Origin, OreCorp, Azure, Hollysys, Toyo, Amara, Haitong Intl

Australia

Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas and LPG. Origin Energy also holds a generation portfolio and fuel position and a renewable energy portfolio, as well as unconventional gas and LNG interests.

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Origin Energy (ORG AU)

Origin: Brookfield's "Inferior" Alternative Proposal

Somewhat appropriately on Thanksgiving day, this has turned out to be somewhat of a turkey. It may still achieve the 50.1% acceptance hurdle under...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

There could be 3 changes for the ASX200 in December. Impact on the adds/deletes varies from 7-23x ADV. Shorts have increased on the potential...

Brian Freitas

JSR (4185) - Time To Fight The FUD

JSR has been the victim of flows and FUD. It was a big position in active portfolios and long selling may have overwhelmed arb capacity, but China...

Travis Lundy