Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 3QFY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s revenue may fall short of the consensus estimate by approximately 3%, and its OP could be about 6% below the consensus.</li>
<li>Despite revising up its annual guidance in October 2023, the share price has not surpassed its previous highs since June of last year.</li>
<li>As such, a minor deviation from consensus, as we anticipate, has the potential to significantly impact price perfromance.</li>
</ul>


In 3QFY24, Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s revenue may fall short of the consensus estimate by approximately 3%, and its OP could be about 6% below the consensus.
Despite revising up its annual guidance in October 2023, the share price has not surpassed its previous highs since June of last year.
As such, a minor deviation from consensus, as we anticipate, has the potential to significantly impact price perfromance.


<ul>
<li>Google Search trends for Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea in recent months point to potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's FQ3 performance.</li>
<li>Tokyo Disneyland's rising ticket prices have narrowed the cost gap with Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland, potentially leading to a loss of customers to its counterparts.</li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> shares fail to surpass its recent peak in January next year, we think shares could undergo a rather substantial correction.</li>
</ul>


Google Search trends for Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea in recent months point to potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's FQ3 performance.
Tokyo Disneyland's rising ticket prices have narrowed the cost gap with Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland, potentially leading to a loss of customers to its counterparts.
Should Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares fail to surpass its recent peak in January next year, we think shares could undergo a rather substantial correction.


Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

<ul>
<li>During the initial months of 2QFY24, both Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea experienced a significant double-digit QoQ drop in Google search interest.</li>
<li>Using Google Search trends data for the first two months of 2QFY24, we anticipate a QoQ decline of about 17% in Oriental Land's Theme Parks revenue, dropping below ¥100bn.</li>
<li>2QFY24 consensus OP is 2.5x above the company's guidance, and both short and medium term consensus revenue and OP targets for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> appear blatantly unachievable.</li>
</ul>


During the initial months of 2QFY24, both Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea experienced a significant double-digit QoQ drop in Google search interest.
Using Google Search trends data for the first two months of 2QFY24, we anticipate a QoQ decline of about 17% in Oriental Land's Theme Parks revenue, dropping below ¥100bn.
2QFY24 consensus OP is 2.5x above the company's guidance, and both short and medium term consensus revenue and OP targets for Oriental Land (4661 JP) appear blatantly unachievable.


Oriental Land: Google Searches For Tokyo Disneyland Dips Double Digits in July & August 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over two decades, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> has been the subject of softer and harder activist efforts to have Keisei monetise its stake in affiliate Oriental Land (4661).</li>
<li>The most recent efforts were by Palliser last fall, briefly discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/keisei-electric-rail-9009-a-buyback-but-it-s-likely-to-be-crossholders-selling-in-tostnet-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> two weeks ago when Keisei announced a buyback. </li>
<li>Today, Keisei <a href="https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS01810/961e9d0f/2b7a/4eef/89ba/091c3bf36d72/140120240305549065.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (Japanese only) an Accelerated Block Offering of 1% of Oriental Land shares. The accompanying announcement is worth reading. It's pretty clear.</li>
</ul>


Over two decades, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has been the subject of softer and harder activist efforts to have Keisei monetise its stake in affiliate Oriental Land (4661).
The most recent efforts were by Palliser last fall, briefly discussed here two weeks ago when Keisei announced a buyback. 
Today, Keisei announced (Japanese only) an Accelerated Block Offering of 1% of Oriental Land shares. The accompanying announcement is worth reading. It's pretty clear.


Oriental Land (4661) Placement by Keisei Rail (9009) Says "That's the Door"

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Oriental Land: Earnings Preview

Despite last quarter's raised guidance, Oriental Land's share price hasn't exceeded its peak from June 2023, hinting that even a minor miss this...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land: Google Searches For Tokyo Disneyland Dips Double Digits in July & August 2023

Tokyo Disneyland & DisneySea's lower Google interest in early 2QFY24 may cause a 17% QoQ revenue dip for Oriental Land's Theme Parks business.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land (4661) Placement by Keisei Rail (9009) Says "That's the Door"

Keisei Rail today announced the offering/sale of 16+mm shares (1.0%) of Oriental Land. There will be a special div as a result. The announcement...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oriental Land: Earnings Preview

Despite last quarter's raised guidance, Oriental Land's share price hasn't exceeded its peak from June 2023, hinting that even a minor miss this...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land: Approaching the Tipping Point

​Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land: Google Searches For Tokyo Disneyland Dips Double Digits in July & August 2023

Tokyo Disneyland & DisneySea's lower Google interest in early 2QFY24 may cause a 17% QoQ revenue dip for Oriental Land's Theme Parks business.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Oriental Land (4661) Placement by Keisei Rail (9009) Says "That's the Door"

Keisei Rail today announced the offering/sale of 16+mm shares (1.0%) of Oriental Land. There will be a special div as a result. The announcement...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Google Search trends suggest potential vulnerabilities in Oriental Land's Q3 performance. Surging ticket prices narrow the cost gap with Shanghai...