External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In a much-awaited development, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet approved a weighted average gas price hike of 70-75% for domestic gas consumers and industries. The increase in gas prices will now be effective from Nov 01, 2023, instead of the proposed date of Oct 01, 2023.</li><li>Further a fixed rate of Rs400/month (earlier Rs10/month) from protected consumers and Rs1,000/month (earlier Rs460/month) for upto 1.5 hm3 from non-protected consumers. Additionally Rs2,000/month (previously Rs460/month) will be charged for consumption ranging from 2 hm3 to above 4 hm3 for non-protected consumers. These charges will be collected in addition to the increase in gas prices.</li><li>The increase in gas tariffs will help bridge revenue shortfall for the gas utility companies for the current year as Pakistan last increased gas prices in Feb 15, 2023 for domestic gas consumers and industries with effective from Jan 01,2023.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In a much-awaited development, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet approved a weighted average gas price hike of 70-75% for domestic gas consumers and industries. The increase in gas prices will now be effective from Nov 01, 2023, instead of the proposed date of Oct 01, 2023.Further a fixed rate of Rs400/month (earlier Rs10/month) from protected consumers and Rs1,000/month (earlier Rs460/month) for upto 1.5 hm3 from non-protected consumers. Additionally Rs2,000/month (previously Rs460/month) will be charged for consumption ranging from 2 hm3 to above 4 hm3 for non-protected consumers. These charges will be collected in addition to the increase in gas prices.The increase in gas tariffs will help bridge revenue shortfall for the gas utility companies for the current year as Pakistan last increased gas prices in Feb 15, 2023 for domestic gas consumers and industries with effective from Jan 01,2023.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Strategy - ECC approved gas price hike; Implications on Economy & Sectors/Companies

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.
Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.
The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. 
The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.
We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.
We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.
Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.
Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.
The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. 
The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.
We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.
We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.
Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.

Asian Governance: Diversity & Incentives Through the Cultural Lens

MSCI semi annual index review is scheduled on Nov 13, 2017 where Pakistan’s weight in MSCI EM index is expected to be around 0.10% based on Oct 31, 2017 free float market capitalization of EM Index and 6 constituents of Pakistan market. This is lower than 0.14% weight initially set after reclassification of Pakistan market from Frontier Market to Emerging Markets (announced on May 15, 2017 and was effective from Jun 1, 2017). The semi-annual index review changes will be effective on Dec 1, 2017…

MSCI semi annual index review is scheduled on Nov 13, 2017 where Pakistan’s weight in MSCI EM index is expected to be around 0.10% based on Oct 31, 2017 free float market capitalization of EM Index and 6 constituents of Pakistan market. This is lower than 0.14% weight initially set after reclassification of Pakistan market from Frontier Market to Emerging Markets (announced on May 15, 2017 and was effective from Jun 1, 2017). The semi-annual index review changes will be effective on Dec 1, 2017…

Pakistan Strategy: MSCI Semi Annual Review, Pakistan Weight in MSCI EM Likely to Fall

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

After a few months of thinking, I’ve been getting steadily more bearish on just about everything as the biggest political change in years happens next Friday when Donald Trump becomes President of the USA. I honestly don’t think anyone can believe it, including his own supporters and the potential impact is certainly not priced into US markets, with a little bit being priced into Emerging Markets such as Mexico at this point. The simple fact is that nobody knows where we will end up given the range of potential Trumpian outcomes. With regards to oil, if he pursues the trade policies that have been about the only consistent part of his platform, this will clearly be terrible for oil demand. The below looks at two potential shocks on the supply side, an acceleration of the 190 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserve rebalancing, which could unravel a tenuous OPEC deal and the shock impact of the border adjustment tax proposal, which I would assign a 50% probability of passing but would be unlikely to pass until later this year (who knows though). I would now be bearish on oil over the next few months in the face of record financial net length and too many possible pot holes, although I still see supply shocks later this year.

After a few months of thinking, I’ve been getting steadily more bearish on just about everything as the biggest political change in years happens next Friday when Donald Trump becomes President of the USA. I honestly don’t think anyone can believe it, including his own supporters and the potential impact is certainly not priced into US markets, with a little bit being priced into Emerging Markets such as Mexico at this point. The simple fact is that nobody knows where we will end up given the range of potential Trumpian outcomes. With regards to oil, if he pursues the trade policies that have been about the only consistent part of his platform, this will clearly be terrible for oil demand. The below looks at two potential shocks on the supply side, an acceleration of the 190 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserve rebalancing, which could unravel a tenuous OPEC deal and the shock impact of the border adjustment tax proposal, which I would assign a 50% probability of passing but would be unlikely to pass until later this year (who knows though). I would now be bearish on oil over the next few months in the face of record financial net length and too many possible pot holes, although I still see supply shocks later this year.

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies., Asia Frontier Capital

Scott Osheroff

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

I had the opportunity in early October 2016 to attend a three-day fund manager conference organized by one of our Pakistani brokers in Lahore (one day) and two days in Karachi, followed by my own visits to some of our investee companies and a number of promising companies pinned down by our research efforts...

I had the opportunity in early October 2016 to attend a three-day fund manager conference organized by one of our Pakistani brokers in Lahore (one day) and two days in Karachi, followed by my own visits to some of our investee companies and a number of promising companies pinned down by our research efforts...

Asia Frontier Capital Travel Report: Pakistan

Pakistan

Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The Company also sells liquefied petroleum gas and condensates.

Mari Petroleum Co Ltd specializes in the drilling, production and selling of natural gas.

Pakistan Oil Fields Limited specializes in the exploration, drilling, production and transmission of petroleum.  The Company also markets Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG).

Pakistan State Oil Company Limited specializes in the marketing and storage of petroleum and related products.  The Company also blends and markets lubricating oils.

Shell Pakistan Limited markets petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company also blends and markets different types of lubricating oils.

Teekay Tankers Ltd. provides oil transportation services through a fleet of mid-size tankers, including Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers and Long Range 2 product tankers. The Company's vessels are typically employed through a mix of short- or medium-term fixed-rate time charter contracts and spot tanker market trading.

DHT Holdings, Inc. is an independent crude oil tanker company.  The company provides transportation services to oil companies and trades internationally with a fleet of crude oil tankers in the VLCC, Aframax and Suezmax segments.

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk PT provides coal mining activities. The Company offers services including general surveying, exploration, exploitation, production, transportation, and marketing of coal.

Oriental Energy Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes and distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company produces LPG using oilfield associated gases, mainly including propane and butane. Zhangjiagang's products are mainly used as industrial gas, as well as chemical raw materials.

Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co., Ltd. operates in coal mining and processing.

Sitio Royalties Corp. focuses on investing in mineral and royalty interests in oil basins. The Company acquires, owns, and manages mineral and royalty interests across a diverse set of operators in unconventional basins within the United States with a specific focus on the Permian Basin.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products, including lube oil base stocks, aviation turbine fuel,  propane, propylene and polybutene feedstock.  The Group operates two refineries, the Cauvery Basin Refinery and the Manali Refinery.

SFL Corporation Ltd. owns and charters out ships. The Company operates fleet includes crude oil tankers, bulk and ore vessels, dry bulk carriers, container ships, and jack up oil rigs. SFL serves customers worldwide.

Earthstone Energy, Inc. is a growth-oriented independent energy company engaged in developing and operating oil and gas properties.  The Company's primary assets are located in the Midland Basin of west Texas and the Eagle Ford trend of south Texas.

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. explores and develops oil and natural gas properties in Pakistan.

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Oil & Gas Development (OGDC PA)

Pakistan Strategy - ECC approved gas price hike; Implications on Economy & Sectors/Companies

In a much-awaited development, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet approved a weighted average gas price hike of 70-75% for...

Topline Securities

Asian Governance: Diversity & Incentives Through the Cultural Lens

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and...

Bondcritic

Pakistan Strategy: MSCI Semi Annual Review, Pakistan Weight in MSCI EM Likely to Fall

MSCI semi annual index review is scheduled on Nov 13, 2017 where Pakistan’s weight in MSCI EM index is expected to be around 0.10% based on Oct 31,...

Topline Securities

How Trump Could Change the Oil Game

After a few months of thinking, I’ve been getting steadily more bearish on just about everything as the biggest political change in years happens...

Emad Mostaque

Asia Frontier Capital Travel Report: Pakistan

I had the opportunity in early October 2016 to attend a three-day fund manager conference organized by one of our Pakistani brokers in Lahore (one...

Asia Frontier Capital

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