EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed production cuts and provides some worked examples of how the Tactical Petroleum Fund would work in practice for Smartkarma readers.

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed production cuts and provides some worked examples of how the Tactical Petroleum Fund would work in practice for Smartkarma readers.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

In a somewhat surprising development, OPEC members have tentatively agreed to a production target of between 32.5 million and 33.3 million barrels per day, representing a reduction of up to 700 mb/d from current production levels of 33.2 mmb/d.Oil prices rallied on the news, but our view for continued low prices of $50/bbl in 2017 (detailed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oil-markets-fundamentals-improving-but-u-s-shale-still-looms" target="_blank">Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms</a>) remains unchanged, as we do not believe the potential reduction will have a meaningful sustainable impact on oil prices. While the low end of the target range is nearly 1 mmbd lower than our 2017 forecast for OPEC production, and if realized, it would balance markets and reduce inventories sooner than our original expectations, we see numerous risk factors that we think prevent a sustained recovery in prices until 2018.Analysts: Stephen Simko, CFA &amp; Lorraine Tan, CFA

In a somewhat surprising development, OPEC members have tentatively agreed to a production target of between 32.5 million and 33.3 million barrels per day, representing a reduction of up to 700 mb/d from current production levels of 33.2 mmb/d.Oil prices rallied on the news, but our view for continued low prices of $50/bbl in 2017 (detailed in Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms) remains unchanged, as we do not believe the potential reduction will have a meaningful sustainable impact on oil prices. While the low end of the target range is nearly 1 mmbd lower than our 2017 forecast for OPEC production, and if realized, it would balance markets and reduce inventories sooner than our original expectations, we see numerous risk factors that we think prevent a sustained recovery in prices until 2018.Analysts: Stephen Simko, CFA &amp; Lorraine Tan, CFA

OPEC Cuts, U.S. E&Ps Drill: Our Oil Price Outlook Remains Unchanged

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into winter.This appears to have been prescient as OPEC yesterday announced that OPEC-14 production levels would be capped at 32.5-33mbpd, a slight decrease over the levels achieved over summer and back at Doha talks levels.However, detail is lacking on the proposal and there is strong reason to doubt potential enforceability of any agreement, with oil jumping but still being flat month on month as a result.This piece explores some of these issues and potential market action.

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into winter.This appears to have been prescient as OPEC yesterday announced that OPEC-14 production levels would be capped at 32.5-33mbpd, a slight decrease over the levels achieved over summer and back at Doha talks levels.However, detail is lacking on the proposal and there is strong reason to doubt potential enforceability of any agreement, with oil jumping but still being flat month on month as a result.This piece explores some of these issues and potential market action.

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by about a year, relative to our previous outlook. Fundamentals after 2017 are looking particularly bullish for prices, and an oil price rally in 2018 is looking more and more likely (we've raised our 2018 West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, forecast to $65 per barrel).Even so, the strength of U.S. shale is lurking beneath the surface: Our analysis shows that the recent uptick in rigs and falling shale decline rates together are enough to stabilize U.S. crude production within six months. Remarkably, if activity isn't scaled back, U.S. production will begin growing in 2017 (albeit barely). This underscores the strength of U.S. tight oil: Should a price rally ensue, it is far too strong to not overheat and eventually snuff out any future oil price rally. We remain bearish on oil prices longer term, and we reiterate our midcycle oil price outlook of $55 WTI ($60 Brent).Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by about a year, relative to our previous outlook. Fundamentals after 2017 are looking particularly bullish for prices, and an oil price rally in 2018 is looking more and more likely (we've raised our 2018 West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, forecast to $65 per barrel).Even so, the strength of U.S. shale is lurking beneath the surface: Our analysis shows that the recent uptick in rigs and falling shale decline rates together are enough to stabilize U.S. crude production within six months. Remarkably, if activity isn't scaled back, U.S. production will begin growing in 2017 (albeit barely). This underscores the strength of U.S. tight oil: Should a price rally ensue, it is far too strong to not overheat and eventually snuff out any future oil price rally. We remain bearish on oil prices longer term, and we reiterate our midcycle oil price outlook of $55 WTI ($60 Brent).Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA

Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms

Equity Analyst, TMT & Energy Specialist

HL Tan

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?<ul><li>
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…</li></ul>

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…

Pakistan

Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The Company also sells liquefied petroleum gas and condensates.

Mari Petroleum Co Ltd specializes in the drilling, production and selling of natural gas.

Pakistan Oil Fields Limited specializes in the exploration, drilling, production and transmission of petroleum.  The Company also markets Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG).

Pakistan State Oil Company Limited specializes in the marketing and storage of petroleum and related products.  The Company also blends and markets lubricating oils.

Shell Pakistan Limited markets petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company also blends and markets different types of lubricating oils.

Teekay Tankers Ltd. provides oil transportation services through a fleet of mid-size tankers, including Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers and Long Range 2 product tankers. The Company's vessels are typically employed through a mix of short- or medium-term fixed-rate time charter contracts and spot tanker market trading.

DHT Holdings, Inc. is an independent crude oil tanker company.  The company provides transportation services to oil companies and trades internationally with a fleet of crude oil tankers in the VLCC, Aframax and Suezmax segments.

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk PT provides coal mining activities. The Company offers services including general surveying, exploration, exploitation, production, transportation, and marketing of coal.

Oriental Energy Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes and distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company produces LPG using oilfield associated gases, mainly including propane and butane. Zhangjiagang's products are mainly used as industrial gas, as well as chemical raw materials.

Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co., Ltd. operates in coal mining and processing.

Sitio Royalties Corp. focuses on investing in mineral and royalty interests in oil basins. The Company acquires, owns, and manages mineral and royalty interests across a diverse set of operators in unconventional basins within the United States with a specific focus on the Permian Basin.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products, including lube oil base stocks, aviation turbine fuel,  propane, propylene and polybutene feedstock.  The Group operates two refineries, the Cauvery Basin Refinery and the Manali Refinery.

SFL Corporation Ltd. owns and charters out ships. The Company operates fleet includes crude oil tankers, bulk and ore vessels, dry bulk carriers, container ships, and jack up oil rigs. SFL serves customers worldwide.

Earthstone Energy, Inc. is a growth-oriented independent energy company engaged in developing and operating oil and gas properties.  The Company's primary assets are located in the Midland Basin of west Texas and the Eagle Ford trend of south Texas.

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. explores and develops oil and natural gas properties in Pakistan.

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Oil & Gas Development (OGDC PA)

How to Fix Oil Prices

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed...

Emad Mostaque

OPEC Cuts, U.S. E&Ps Drill: Our Oil Price Outlook Remains Unchanged

In a somewhat surprising development, OPEC members have tentatively agreed to a production target of between 32.5 million and 33.3 million barrels...

Morningstar, Inc.

Can OPEC Cut Production

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into...

Emad Mostaque

Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by...

Morningstar, Inc.

Oil Price - OPEC Deal or No Deal?

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production...

HL Tan

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