External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In a notice to exchange, Oil &amp; Gas Development Company (OGDC) has informed that Government has approved payment of Rs82bn, representing the principal amount of the Company's investment in privately placed Term Finance Certificates (TFCs) issued by Power Holding (Private) Limited (PHL).</li><li>Further, the Government has also approved repayment of interest of Rs92bn in twelve equal instalments commencing from Jul-2025.</li><li>However as part of settlement, OGDC has agreed to waive off Rs72bn on account of liquidated damages (LDs) on the directives of Government.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In a notice to exchange, Oil &amp; Gas Development Company (OGDC) has informed that Government has approved payment of Rs82bn, representing the principal amount of the Company's investment in privately placed Term Finance Certificates (TFCs) issued by Power Holding (Private) Limited (PHL).Further, the Government has also approved repayment of interest of Rs92bn in twelve equal instalments commencing from Jul-2025.However as part of settlement, OGDC has agreed to waive off Rs72bn on account of liquidated damages (LDs) on the directives of Government.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topline Flash Note: OGDC: Government Approved Rs82bn Payment of OGDC – BUY Stance Maintained

<ul><li>Oil &amp; Gas Development Company (OGDC) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results and future outlook.</li><li>To recall, OGDC announced a dividend of Rs1.6 per share in 1QFY24, which was lower than market expectations. The management highlighted that an increase in the payout will depend on the clearance of overdue receivables from Sui Companies.</li><li>In 1QFY24, the company's gas receipt collection ratio increased to 86%. Furthermore, the management mentioned that they are working with Sui companies and relevant authorities to enhance cash payments. OGDC’s Oil receivables collection is 100%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil &amp; Gas Development Company (OGDC) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results and future outlook.To recall, OGDC announced a dividend of Rs1.6 per share in 1QFY24, which was lower than market expectations. The management highlighted that an increase in the payout will depend on the clearance of overdue receivables from Sui Companies.In 1QFY24, the company's gas receipt collection ratio increased to 86%. Furthermore, the management mentioned that they are working with Sui companies and relevant authorities to enhance cash payments. OGDC’s Oil receivables collection is 100%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topline Flash Note: Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We have revisited our target PE for Dec 2024 after incorporating Pakistan's successful completion of US$3bn stand-by agreement with IMF and initiation of talks for a new IMF program, Extended Funding Facility (EFF).</li><li>We believe, current PE of 3.7x will linearly revert to its historical average of 6.93x over next 3 years of IMF program (Jul 2024 - Jul 2027), subject to successful implementation of the program and its conditionalities with respect to fiscal/monetary discipline and structural reforms.</li><li>That said, we believe forward PE by Jun 2025 will rise to 4.6x, taking our index target for Jun 2025 to 106k. In line with this, our Index target for Dec 2024 is now revised up to 87k (earlier: 75k), providing further return of 20%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We have revisited our target PE for Dec 2024 after incorporating Pakistan's successful completion of US$3bn stand-by agreement with IMF and initiation of talks for a new IMF program, Extended Funding Facility (EFF).We believe, current PE of 3.7x will linearly revert to its historical average of 6.93x over next 3 years of IMF program (Jul 2024 - Jul 2027), subject to successful implementation of the program and its conditionalities with respect to fiscal/monetary discipline and structural reforms.That said, we believe forward PE by Jun 2025 will rise to 4.6x, taking our index target for Jun 2025 to 106k. In line with this, our Index target for Dec 2024 is now revised up to 87k (earlier: 75k), providing further return of 20%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Market Outlook | Strategy - Index to Reach 87k by Dec 2024, 106k by Jun 2025

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>To recall, Government of Pakistan under the IMF program has sizably increased the gas prices by ~75% in Nov-2023 and ~20% in Feb-2024 to contain the annual pile up of the gas sector circular debt which mounted to around Rs3trn by Jan-2024.</li>
<li>Oil and Gas exploration companies were amongst the top affected companies of this menace. However, post adjustment/increase in gas prices, there has been some improvement in the cashflows of the companies.</li>
<li>To quantify the impact, we have assessed Mar 2024 quarter accounts of the OGDC and PPL. As per which the change in receivables to net sales ratio in 3QFY24/9MFY24 has fallen to 21%/20% of the net sales for both companies cumulatively compared to last six years (FY18-23) average of 29%, signaling partial improvement in recoveries of the E&amp;P companies.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


To recall, Government of Pakistan under the IMF program has sizably increased the gas prices by ~75% in Nov-2023 and ~20% in Feb-2024 to contain the annual pile up of the gas sector circular debt which mounted to around Rs3trn by Jan-2024.
Oil and Gas exploration companies were amongst the top affected companies of this menace. However, post adjustment/increase in gas prices, there has been some improvement in the cashflows of the companies.
To quantify the impact, we have assessed Mar 2024 quarter accounts of the OGDC and PPL. As per which the change in receivables to net sales ratio in 3QFY24/9MFY24 has fallen to 21%/20% of the net sales for both companies cumulatively compared to last six years (FY18-23) average of 29%, signaling partial improvement in recoveries of the E&amp;P companies.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Equity - Flash Note; Oil & Gas Exploration

<ul><li>KSE index companies recorded highest ever quarterly earnings (PAT) of Rs417bn up 52% YoY (+16% YoY in US$) in 1QFY24, which is higher than 10-years average growth of 13%.</li><li>Pre-tax earnings of KSE index companies also up 58% YoY to Rs729bn (+22% YoY in US$) in 1QFY24.</li><li>Economic recovery, easing of LC issues, slowdown in inflation, and stable currency were the prime reasons of significant jump in corporate profitability.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

KSE index companies recorded highest ever quarterly earnings (PAT) of Rs417bn up 52% YoY (+16% YoY in US$) in 1QFY24, which is higher than 10-years average growth of 13%.Pre-tax earnings of KSE index companies also up 58% YoY to Rs729bn (+22% YoY in US$) in 1QFY24.Economic recovery, easing of LC issues, slowdown in inflation, and stable currency were the prime reasons of significant jump in corporate profitability.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Strategy: Record Corporate Profitability in 1QFY24

Pakistan

Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The Company also sells liquefied petroleum gas and condensates.

Mari Petroleum Co Ltd specializes in the drilling, production and selling of natural gas.

Pakistan Oil Fields Limited specializes in the exploration, drilling, production and transmission of petroleum.  The Company also markets Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG).

Pakistan State Oil Company Limited specializes in the marketing and storage of petroleum and related products.  The Company also blends and markets lubricating oils.

Shell Pakistan Limited markets petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company also blends and markets different types of lubricating oils.

Teekay Tankers Ltd. provides oil transportation services through a fleet of mid-size tankers, including Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers and Long Range 2 product tankers. The Company's vessels are typically employed through a mix of short- or medium-term fixed-rate time charter contracts and spot tanker market trading.

DHT Holdings, Inc. is an independent crude oil tanker company.  The company provides transportation services to oil companies and trades internationally with a fleet of crude oil tankers in the VLCC, Aframax and Suezmax segments.

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk PT provides coal mining activities. The Company offers services including general surveying, exploration, exploitation, production, transportation, and marketing of coal.

Oriental Energy Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes and distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company produces LPG using oilfield associated gases, mainly including propane and butane. Zhangjiagang's products are mainly used as industrial gas, as well as chemical raw materials.

Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co., Ltd. operates in coal mining and processing.

Sitio Royalties Corp. focuses on investing in mineral and royalty interests in oil basins. The Company acquires, owns, and manages mineral and royalty interests across a diverse set of operators in unconventional basins within the United States with a specific focus on the Permian Basin.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products, including lube oil base stocks, aviation turbine fuel,  propane, propylene and polybutene feedstock.  The Group operates two refineries, the Cauvery Basin Refinery and the Manali Refinery.

SFL Corporation Ltd. owns and charters out ships. The Company operates fleet includes crude oil tankers, bulk and ore vessels, dry bulk carriers, container ships, and jack up oil rigs. SFL serves customers worldwide.

Earthstone Energy, Inc. is a growth-oriented independent energy company engaged in developing and operating oil and gas properties.  The Company's primary assets are located in the Midland Basin of west Texas and the Eagle Ford trend of south Texas.

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. explores and develops oil and natural gas properties in Pakistan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oil & Gas Development (OGDC PA)

Topline Flash Note: OGDC: Government Approved Rs82bn Payment of OGDC – BUY Stance Maintained

In a notice to exchange, Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) has informed that Government has approved payment of Rs82bn, representing the...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Market Outlook | Strategy - Index to Reach 87k by Dec 2024, 106k by Jun 2025

We have revisited our target PE for Dec 2024 after incorporating Pakistan's successful completion of US$3bn stand-by agreement with IMF and...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Equity - Flash Note; Oil & Gas Exploration

Government of Pakistan under the IMF program has sizably increased the gas prices by ~75% in Nov-2023 and ~20% in Feb-2024 to contain the annual...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Strategy: Record Corporate Profitability in 1QFY24

KSE index companies recorded highest ever quarterly earnings (PAT) of Rs417bn up 52% YoY (+16% YoY in US$) in 1QFY24, which is higher than...

Topline Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)