Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Intra-Asian economic, trade and capital linkages have strengthened, especially since the global financial crisis. Asian businesses are already focused on the fastest growing markets in the world. We believe rising US protectionism could prove a powerful catalyst for Asian companies to expand regionally, for Asian countries to set aside historical differences and deepen cooperation and for China to push ahead with BRI faster. If this was to happen it would accelerate regional integration and in the process throw up exciting new opportunities for investors.

Intra-Asian economic, trade and capital linkages have strengthened, especially since the global financial crisis. Asian businesses are already focused on the fastest growing markets in the world. We believe rising US protectionism could prove a powerful catalyst for Asian companies to expand regionally, for Asian countries to set aside historical differences and deepen cooperation and for China to push ahead with BRI faster. If this was to happen it would accelerate regional integration and in the process throw up exciting new opportunities for investors. 

Asia's Response To Mr Trump - Accelerated Regional Integration? (Part I)

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USA fired off its biggest missile yet in its trade war with China and has rolled up more artillery.  There is little doubt that they are in for the long fight and this poses significant downside risks for Asian markets.  AUD has been a proxy for tariffs and rebounded on Tuesday, in-line with a bounce in Asian currencies and equities.  But the trade war suggests this reprieve may be short-lived.  If you close one eye, the Australian economy is performing well, and the AUD looks cheap.  But if you open both eyes, the downside risk coming from China, housing and the next election is large. The falling Australian housing market may bring to the surface more problems for banks over past lending practices.  New Zealand economic survey data is pointing to a weak second half and rising risk of significant further RBNZ rate cuts.

The USA fired off its biggest missile yet in its trade war with China and has rolled up more artillery.  There is little doubt that they are in for the long fight and this poses significant downside risks for Asian markets.  AUD has been a proxy for tariffs and rebounded on Tuesday, in-line with a bounce in Asian currencies and equities.  But the trade war suggests this reprieve may be short-lived.  If you close one eye, the Australian economy is performing well, and the AUD looks cheap.  But if you open both eyes, the downside risk coming from China, housing and the next election is large. The falling Australian housing market may bring to the surface more problems for banks over past lending practices.  New Zealand economic survey data is pointing to a weak second half and rising risk of significant further RBNZ rate cuts.

Risks for AUD and NZD Rising to the Surface

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY struggle to chisel out the final up leg to form an intermediate top in our 97+ zone. We have been staunch dollar bulls from early 2018 with a breakout call in the TRY and EM FX to lead an EM Equity spiral.US 10yr yield bullish triangulation sets the tone for USD strength into year-end. A breakout will shift the dollar's momentum. A Q4 fade will sap needed energy from the USD.EM FX continues to show signs of a fresh break higher in the charts into what we envision as a final thrust for the greenback, setting the stage for a compelling USD peak in Asia and EM's and a cycle low in EM/Asian equities ahead of a Q4 recovery cycle with a tough environment in store for 2019 (DM pressure).USD/THB and NZD display early turn signals as pair shorts versus the USD or on the crosses. NZD favored over the AUD. We outlined a transition cycle.Euro exhibits a more bullish undertone on a revisit of the sub 1.15 area ahead of a 3-5 month Euro rally cycle.

DXY struggle to chisel out the final up leg to form an intermediate top in our 97+ zone. We have been staunch dollar bulls from early 2018 with a breakout call in the TRY and EM FX to lead an EM Equity spiral.US 10yr yield bullish triangulation sets the tone for USD strength into year-end. A breakout will shift the dollar's momentum. A Q4 fade will sap needed energy from the USD.EM FX continues to show signs of a fresh break higher in the charts into what we envision as a final thrust for the greenback, setting the stage for a compelling USD peak in Asia and EM's and a cycle low in EM/Asian equities ahead of a Q4 recovery cycle with a tough environment in store for 2019 (DM pressure).USD/THB and NZD display early turn signals as pair shorts versus the USD or on the crosses. NZD favored over the AUD. We outlined a transition cycle.Euro exhibits a more bullish undertone on a revisit of the sub 1.15 area ahead of a 3-5 month Euro rally cycle.

Dollar's Fuel and Struggle in Asia - These Are the Currencies to Short into the Next USD Push

In our view, downside risk for Australian interest rates and the AUD have increased significantly.  The persistent increase in bank funding costs that has led Westpac to raise mortgage rates is a further tightening of monetary conditions and comes at a precarious time for the housing market.  Australian political risk has increased as an election approaches in around six months. Recent economic data suggest some moderation in activity.  US inflation pressure continues to build, and US rates are set to rise further.  The Trump administration is intensifying its trade and economic pressure on China, dampening the outlook for the CNY, and Asia region assets.  Emerging markets globally are demonstrating heightened vulnerability to rising US rates which has, and is likely to continue to, spill over to a weaker AUD.  The RBNZ may also surprise the market and cut rates before year-end.

In our view, downside risk for Australian interest rates and the AUD have increased significantly.  The persistent increase in bank funding costs that has led Westpac to raise mortgage rates is a further tightening of monetary conditions and comes at a precarious time for the housing market.  Australian political risk has increased as an election approaches in around six months. Recent economic data suggest some moderation in activity.  US inflation pressure continues to build, and US rates are set to rise further.  The Trump administration is intensifying its trade and economic pressure on China, dampening the outlook for the CNY, and Asia region assets.  Emerging markets globally are demonstrating heightened vulnerability to rising US rates which has, and is likely to continue to, spill over to a weaker AUD.  The RBNZ may also surprise the market and cut rates before year-end.

RBA Rate Cut May Soon Be Back on the Table

In a follow-up note from our report last week (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/major-commodity-currencies-may-diverge-cad-set-to-shine" target="_blank">Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine</a>) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy meetings next week and see risks of dovish surprises in both.  Business surveys have ebbed, particularly in New Zealand.  The Australian economy is showing more resilience, but risks from a housing market downturn are intensifying.  Uncertainty in global markets, particularly related to US-China trade relations, may be increasing.  Even a subtle shift in message from both central banks may place significant downward pressure on their currencies.  In contrast, Canadian economic reports showed strength, and this may be reinforced next week.

In a follow-up note from our report last week (Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy meetings next week and see risks of dovish surprises in both.  Business surveys have ebbed, particularly in New Zealand.  The Australian economy is showing more resilience, but risks from a housing market downturn are intensifying.  Uncertainty in global markets, particularly related to US-China trade relations, may be increasing.  Even a subtle shift in message from both central banks may place significant downward pressure on their currencies.  In contrast, Canadian economic reports showed strength, and this may be reinforced next week.

New Zealand

The New Zealand dollar is the official currency of New Zealand.  

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NZD (NZD BGN CURNCY)

Asia's Response To Mr Trump - Accelerated Regional Integration? (Part I)

Intra-Asian economic, trade and capital linkages have strengthened, especially since the global financial crisis. Asian businesses are already...

Sharmila Whelan

Risks for AUD and NZD Rising to the Surface

The USA fired off its biggest missile yet in its trade war with China and has rolled up more artillery. There is little doubt that they are in for...

Greg Gibbs

Dollar's Fuel and Struggle in Asia - These Are the Currencies to Short into the Next USD Push

DXY struggle to chisel out the final up leg to form an intermediate top in our 97+ zone. We have been staunch dollar bulls from early 2018 with a...

Thomas Schroeder

RBA Rate Cut May Soon Be Back on the Table

In our view, downside risk for Australian interest rates and the AUD have increased significantly. The persistent increase in bank funding costs...

Greg Gibbs

RBA and RBNZ May Reveal Doubts

In a follow-up note from our report last week (Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy...

Greg Gibbs

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