Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
0.08x P/B. That's where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.</li>
<li>
So, what's going on? Announcing an expected <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0830/2024083003082.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 </a>last week didn't help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.</li>
<li>Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers. </li>
</ul>



0.08x P/B. That's where New World Development (17 HK) is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.

So, what's going on? Announcing an expected HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 last week didn't help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.
Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers. 


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Evidently the influence of a younger hip third-generation tycoon-scion was not the panacea for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and its ongoing issues in the HK/China property space.</li>
<li>As widely expected, Adrian Cheng is stepping down as NWD's CEO, to be replaced by Eric Ma,  Hong Kong’s former secretary for development.</li>
<li>NWD will also sell the rights to provide property management services under the K11 brand to Adrian; and potentially sell its stake in Kai Tak Sports Park to its parent.</li>
</ul>


Evidently the influence of a younger hip third-generation tycoon-scion was not the panacea for New World Development (17 HK) and its ongoing issues in the HK/China property space.
As widely expected, Adrian Cheng is stepping down as NWD's CEO, to be replaced by Eric Ma,  Hong Kong’s former secretary for development.
NWD will also sell the rights to provide property management services under the K11 brand to Adrian; and potentially sell its stake in Kai Tak Sports Park to its parent.


Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

<ul>
<li>Despite the lifting of the "spicy" property cooling measures last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Despite the lifting of the "spicy" property cooling measures last week, New World Development (17 HK) has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. 
Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

Hong Kong

NWS Holdings Limited operates businesses under three main divisions: Service, Infrastructure, and Ports. Its Service division comprises facilities, contracting, transport, financial, and environmental. The Infrastructure portfolio includes roads and bridges, energy, and water treatment and waste management. Its port division includes container handling, logistics, and warehousing.

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Nws Holdings (659 HK)

We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)

Avoid NWD. Landlords need to materially reduce rents to kickstart the retail sector. That translates to more impairment losses. And further woes...

David Blennerhassett

New World Dev (17 HK): Board Games

I'd avoid NWD. While refreshing to see a HK property conglomerate run by someone outside its founding family, it's not clear what new innovation Ma...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

I might have been a tad premature suggesting that NWD will eke out gains after the government abandoned the property cooking measures. One wonders...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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