Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a> looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> doesn't get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.</li>
<li>One way, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385)</a> are ADDs. Another way, it looks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453)</a>. FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.</li>
</ul>


The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) doesn't get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.
One way, Socionext (6526) and Mercari (4385) are ADDs. Another way, it looks like Nitori Holdings (9843) and ZOZO Inc (3092) or Ryohin Keikaku (7453). FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.


Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review - Not An Easy Rebal 🤨

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY4,325 per share, an 18.7% premium to the undisturbed price (1 August).</li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 5.43% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The minimum acceptance condition requires a 14% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive and equals the 20-year share price high.</li>
</ul>



Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) has recommended Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s tender offer of JPY4,325 per share, an 18.7% premium to the undisturbed price (1 August).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 5.43% ownership ratio.
The minimum acceptance condition requires a 14% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive and equals the 20-year share price high.


ITOCHU Techno-Solutions (4739 JP): ITOCHU's JPY4,325 Tender Offer

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.9 billion secondary placement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a>’s shares are down -25.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY21,950 per share (5 July).</li>
<li>So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 11 July. Due to the steep share price decline, Socionext is trading at an undemanding multiple compared to global SoC peers.  </li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.9 billion secondary placement, Socionext (6526 JP)’s shares are down -25.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY21,950 per share (5 July).
So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.
The offering will likely be priced on 11 July. Due to the steep share price decline, Socionext is trading at an undemanding multiple compared to global SoC peers.  


Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review - Not An Easy Rebal 🤨

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is problematic. For the first time under the new rules we have "Serious Rule Interpretation Issues." Then...

Travis Lundy

ITOCHU Techno-Solutions (4739 JP): ITOCHU's JPY4,325 Tender Offer

The minimum acceptance condition requires a 14% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive and equals the 20-year...

Arun George

Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook

So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese...

Arun George

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

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