Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/784/original/2020-07-30_08-23-32.png?1596065031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148784"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/785/original/2020-07-30_08-24-39.png?1596065092" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148785"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/786/original/2020-07-30_08-25-16.png?1596065140" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148786"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">ANA (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15079:1" rel="noopener">Showa (7274 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)</a> were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the DETAIL below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.
<hr>
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>85 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul>
<li>
Results Score: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -2.4</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div> 35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul>
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -12.8</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the DETAIL below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.

DAILY STATS
85 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%
 35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -12.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been recommending adding exposure to cyclical Sectors and, despite them getting near-term extended, we believe these upside moves are likely just getting going. Additionally, the US dollar is breaking below support and EM equities are breaking above resistance, only adding to our bullish outlook on global equities. We highlight actionable set-ups within the Consumer Discretionary, Global Real Estate and Utilities Sectors.

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been recommending adding exposure to cyclical Sectors and, despite them getting near-term extended, we believe these upside moves are likely just getting going. Additionally, the US dollar is breaking below support and EM equities are breaking above resistance, only adding to our bullish outlook on global equities. We highlight actionable set-ups within the Consumer Discretionary, Global Real Estate and Utilities Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Extended Near-Term

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

On 28th April 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dsb-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15543:1" rel="noopener">Dsb Co Ltd (8692 JP)</a> parent company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced a <a href="https://ir.nri.com/jp/ir/news/auto_20200428401562/pdfFile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tender Offer</a> to buy out minorities.Headquartered in Tokyo, DSB provides securities services including securities transfer agency, consignment services, securities transportation, custody, and securities-backed loan services. The company was previously known as Daiko Clearing Services Corporation and was an affiliate of Osaka Securities Finance.The Acquirer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a>, currently owns 51.8% and aims to buy out the remaining shareholders. If the minimum acceptance condition is met, the Acquirer will reach 66.67+% and will be able to squeeze out minority shareholders who did not accept the original Offer. The Offer Price is ¥920/share and this comes at a large premium of 63% to the undisturbed price. The shares last traded at ¥551. So is this a done-deal?More discussion below the fold.

On 28th April 2020, Dsb Co Ltd (8692 JP) parent company Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced a Tender Offer to buy out minorities.Headquartered in Tokyo, DSB provides securities services including securities transfer agency, consignment services, securities transportation, custody, and securities-backed loan services. The company was previously known as Daiko Clearing Services Corporation and was an affiliate of Osaka Securities Finance.The Acquirer, Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP), currently owns 51.8% and aims to buy out the remaining shareholders. If the minimum acceptance condition is met, the Acquirer will reach 66.67+% and will be able to squeeze out minority shareholders who did not accept the original Offer. The Offer Price is ¥920/share and this comes at a large premium of 63% to the undisturbed price. The shares last traded at ¥551. So is this a done-deal?More discussion below the fold.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/266/original/2020-04-24_08-07-36.png?1588109848" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130266"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 117 results was 52:3:62; and for the 76 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:52. Of the 82 companies announcing annual results, only 22 made forecasts for the current year, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> withdrew its FY2020 forecast. Our Sector Score chart is now showing some dramatic changes. Consumer Services is now the lowest-scoring Sector following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s poor full-year results. In comparison, significant declines have been seen in Transportation &amp; Logistics (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a> and Utilities (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2332:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Gas (9531 JP))</a>.  The Internet Content &amp; Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a>) and Chemicals ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>) Sectors are the largest gainers.

Source • Japan Analytics29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 117 results was 52:3:62; and for the 76 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:52. Of the 82 companies announcing annual results, only 22 made forecasts for the current year, while Shimano (7309 JP) withdrew its FY2020 forecast. Our Sector Score chart is now showing some dramatic changes. Consumer Services is now the lowest-scoring Sector following Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s poor full-year results. In comparison, significant declines have been seen in Transportation &amp; Logistics (East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP) and Utilities (Tokyo Gas (9531 JP)).  The Internet Content &amp; Services (ZOZO (3092 JP)) and Chemicals ( Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)) Sectors are the largest gainers. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Extended Near-Term

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been...

Vermilion Research

DSB Co (8692 JP) : This Is a Done-Deal

On 28th April 2020, Dsb Co Ltd (8692 JP) parent company Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced a Tender Offer to buy out...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements. The...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)