Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.</li>
<li>Guidance &amp; Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.</li>
<li>Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
Guidance &amp; Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.


NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

<ul>
<li>NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at &gt;10% in FY26.</li>
<li>New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.</li>
<li>Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of &gt;30% provides downside support. </li>
</ul>


NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at &gt;10% in FY26.
New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.
Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of &gt;30% provides downside support. 


NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>NMDC’s Q3FY25 was largely in-line led by better than expected NSR on two price increases taken in prior quarter while volumes grew 5% YoY as demand started picking up.</li><li>NSR grew 11% QoQ to Rs5389/t; 5% ahead of PLe.</li><li>Cons EBITDA/t at Rs1,987 was tad weaker than PLe (Rs2,061/t) on higher freight and other expenses.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NMDC’s Q3FY25 was largely in-line led by better than expected NSR on two price increases taken in prior quarter while volumes grew 5% YoY as demand started picking up.NSR grew 11% QoQ to Rs5389/t; 5% ahead of PLe.Cons EBITDA/t at Rs1,987 was tad weaker than PLe (Rs2,061/t) on higher freight and other expenses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nmdc (Nmdc In) - Strong NSR Benefitted Q3; Uncertainties Ahead

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Sharekhan

Sharekhan

Sharekhan is India's leading broking house providing services from easy online trading, research to wide array of financial products. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Revenue of Rs. 4,807 crore (+19.7%/-10.6% y-o-y/q-o-q) was inline with estimates.</li><li>Iron ore sales of 9.7 mt grew by only +1.8%/-3.3% y-o-y/q-o-q.</li><li>Realization of Rs. Rs. 4,935/tonne grew +17.7%/-7.6% y-o-y/q-o-q. EBITDA of Rs. 1,440 crore (+20.7% y-o-y/-39% q-o-q) was below our estimates because of reduction in inventory value. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Revenue of Rs. 4,807 crore (+19.7%/-10.6% y-o-y/q-o-q) was inline with estimates.Iron ore sales of 9.7 mt grew by only +1.8%/-3.3% y-o-y/q-o-q.Realization of Rs. Rs. 4,935/tonne grew +17.7%/-7.6% y-o-y/q-o-q. EBITDA of Rs. 1,440 crore (+20.7% y-o-y/-39% q-o-q) was below our estimates because of reduction in inventory value. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>In 2QFY25, NMDC reported production volume of 8.3mt, down 10% QoQ and 6% YoY, totaling 17.5mt for 1HFY25 (down 11% YoY).</li><li>Weak volume growth was due to a heavy monsoon.</li><li>NMDC has maintained its production target of 50mt for FY25 and expects volumes to ramp up significantly in 2HFY25.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In 2QFY25, NMDC reported production volume of 8.3mt, down 10% QoQ and 6% YoY, totaling 17.5mt for 1HFY25 (down 11% YoY).Weak volume growth was due to a heavy monsoon.NMDC has maintained its production target of 50mt for FY25 and expects volumes to ramp up significantly in 2HFY25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nmdc - Rising Steel Demand, Capacity Expansion to Boost Growth

India

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

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Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

Rahul Jain

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Rahul Jain

Nmdc (Nmdc In) - Strong NSR Benefitted Q3; Uncertainties Ahead

NMDC’s Q3FY25 was largely in-line led by better than expected NSR on two price increases taken in prior quarter while volumes grew 5% YoY as demand...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Nmdc - Soft Quarter; Maintain Hold

Revenue of Rs. 4,807 crore (+19.7%/-10.6% y-o-y/q-o-q) was inline with estimates. Iron ore sales of 9.7 mt grew by only +1.8%/-3.3% y-o-y/q-o-q.

Sharekhan

Nmdc - Rising Steel Demand, Capacity Expansion to Boost Growth

In 2QFY25, NMDC reported production volume of 8.3mt, down 10% QoQ and 6% YoY, totaling 17.5mt for 1HFY25 (down 11% YoY).

Motilal Oswal

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NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

​NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

Rahul Jain

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

​NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Rahul Jain

Nmdc (Nmdc In) - Strong NSR Benefitted Q3; Uncertainties Ahead

NMDC’s Q3FY25 was largely in-line led by better than expected NSR on two price increases taken in prior quarter while volumes grew 5% YoY as demand...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Nmdc - Soft Quarter; Maintain Hold

Revenue of Rs. 4,807 crore (+19.7%/-10.6% y-o-y/q-o-q) was inline with estimates. Iron ore sales of 9.7 mt grew by only +1.8%/-3.3% y-o-y/q-o-q.

Sharekhan

Nmdc - Rising Steel Demand, Capacity Expansion to Boost Growth

In 2QFY25, NMDC reported production volume of 8.3mt, down 10% QoQ and 6% YoY, totaling 17.5mt for 1HFY25 (down 11% YoY).

Motilal Oswal

NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...