Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.</li>
<li>Guidance &amp; Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.</li>
<li>Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
Guidance &amp; Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.


NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

<ul>
<li>NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at &gt;10% in FY26.</li>
<li>New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.</li>
<li>Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of &gt;30% provides downside support. </li>
</ul>


NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at &gt;10% in FY26.
New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.
Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of &gt;30% provides downside support. 


NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. </li>
<li>The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial &amp; operational strength of Vedanta</li>
<li>Dividend &amp; delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.</li>
</ul>


A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. 
The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial &amp; operational strength of Vedanta
Dividend &amp; delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.


Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Recent Impact: India’s BIS mandate has disrupted steel imports overnight, stranding shipments and pressuring MSMEs.</li>
<li>Pricing: While prices have remained broadly stable so far, rising input tightness and seasonal factors suggest upward pressure is likely ahead.</li>
<li>Global Trends: Around 25–35% of global steel trade is now under protectionist measures, reflecting a broader shift toward regionalization and defensive trade policies.</li>
</ul>


Recent Impact: India’s BIS mandate has disrupted steel imports overnight, stranding shipments and pressuring MSMEs.
Pricing: While prices have remained broadly stable so far, rising input tightness and seasonal factors suggest upward pressure is likely ahead.
Global Trends: Around 25–35% of global steel trade is now under protectionist measures, reflecting a broader shift toward regionalization and defensive trade policies.


Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

India

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

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Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

Rahul Jain

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Rahul Jain

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism

India's BIS mandate disrupts steel imports, pressures MSMEs; global steel trade trends show rise in protectionist measures.

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

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NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

​NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

Rahul Jain

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

​NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Rahul Jain

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

​Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism

​India's BIS mandate disrupts steel imports, pressures MSMEs; global steel trade trends show rise in protectionist measures.

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

India's BIS mandate disrupts steel imports, pressures MSMEs; global steel trade trends show rise in protectionist measures.

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...