Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks "less bad"</li>
<li>Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently</li>
<li>We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels</li>
</ul>


As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks "less bad"
Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently
We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum in October was negative, but decline moderated somewhat</li>
<li>Disparate Q3 profitability trends reported by Maersk, Evergreen, and ZIM </li>
<li>As sentiment weakens (again), we also see signs of a cyclical bottom</li>
</ul>


Price momentum in October was negative, but decline moderated somewhat
Disparate Q3 profitability trends reported by Maersk, Evergreen, and ZIM 
As sentiment weakens (again), we also see signs of a cyclical bottom


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Maersk, Evergreen, ZIM Report Disparate Results (November 2023)

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Container shipping giant Maersk met Q3 expectations and maintained earlier FY23 guidance</li>
<li>However, downbeat commentary combined with capex and job cuts sent shares -17% lower</li>
<li>Maersk does not expect any recovery in '24, but we believe this pessimism already in prices</li>
</ul>


Container shipping giant Maersk met Q3 expectations and maintained earlier FY23 guidance
However, downbeat commentary combined with capex and job cuts sent shares -17% lower
Maersk does not expect any recovery in '24, but we believe this pessimism already in prices


Maersk Q3: Estimates Met, Guidance Kept | But Downbeat Assessment of Market Sends Shares Down -17%

<ul>
<li>Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?</li>
<li>Fuel price hasn't risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either</li>
<li>Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary</li>
</ul>


Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?
Fuel price hasn't risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either
Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX October Free Float Weight Review details are out. This is the biggest FFW review of the year. This year, it's $11.3bn a side. </li>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-7182-the-october-topix-ffw-adjustment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:110290" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182) - The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment</a>, JPB is the big buy. $2bn/23d of ADV. There is $2bn to buy of trading cos too.</li>
<li>There are lots of large names to trade in both directions. If you have interests to sell the buys and vice versa, it is good to know the flows.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX October Free Float Weight Review details are out. This is the biggest FFW review of the year. This year, it's $11.3bn a side. 
As discussed in Japan Post Bank (7182) - The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment, JPB is the big buy. $2bn/23d of ADV. There is $2bn to buy of trading cos too.
There are lots of large names to trade in both directions. If you have interests to sell the buys and vice versa, it is good to know the flows.


October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review - $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie

Japan

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. owns and operates specialized tankers such as oil, chemical, and LPG carriers.  The Company transports crude oil, petroleum gasoline, and various dry consumer and agricultural goods.  Iino Kaiun Kaisha also leases and sells real estate.

NS United Kaiun Kaisha, Ltd. operates specialized carriers and tramps to ship iron ore, steel, coal, crude oil, and gas. The Company is affiliated with Nippon Yusen. The Company also has close ties with Nippon Steel.

Japan Transcity Corporation provides warehousing and transportation services. The Company handles marine cargo mainly around port of Yokkaichi City, and transports a variety of products such as automobiles, coal, and chemicals. Japan Transcity specializes in international intermodal transportation.

NAIGAI TRANS LINE LTD is a marine transportation company. The Company mainly offers international and domestic container marine transportation services. NAIGAI TRANS LINE LTD also operates warehousing and cargo handling services.

Nippon Concept Corporation is mainly engaged in providing ISO tank container transportation service.  The Company also offers container cleaning services, logistic solutions, and maintenance services.

Meiji Shipping Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services. The Company also provides technical management, marine staffing, supplies Italian kitchen fixtures, and supplies nautical equipment. Meiji, also in involved in real estate and operates hotels and restaurants.

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

West Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services including the shinkansen network (bullet train) in North Kyushu, Kinki, Chugoku, and Hokuriku including Kyoto and Osaka.  The Company also operates ferries in Miyajima, manages real estate, shopping centers, and hotels, and offers leisure-related services such as travel packaging products.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

MISC Berhad owns ships and operates shipping and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides trucking, warehousing and forwarding service, containers and prime movers repair, and container haulage. MISC Berhad also has operation in trucking and launch operator.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

Matson Inc., is involved in transportation and logistics.  The Company offers provides  multimodal transportation services to the North American market, including domestic and international rail intermodal service, long haul and regional highway brokerage, supply chain services and LTL transportation services, as well as third-party logistics services.

Yang Ming Marine Transport provides transportation services and handles domestic and foreign maritime services on cargos.  The Company also operates warehouse, wharf, tug, barge, and container freight station services as well as repairs, leases, and sells containers and chassis.

Wan Hai Lines Ltd. provides marine transportation and shipping agent services. The Company also purchases, sells, and leases vessels and containers as well as operates container freight stations.

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

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Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

We believe price momentum has started to get "less bad", mainly due to easier Y/Y comps. A potential Red Sea re-route could soak up lots of under...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Maersk, Evergreen, ZIM Report Disparate Results (November 2023)

Container rates remain under pressure, and fuel is no longer a tailwind. But Evergreen's stellar performance YTD is worthy of investors' attention,...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q3: Estimates Met, Guidance Kept | But Downbeat Assessment of Market Sends Shares Down -17%

Last Friday Maersk reported Q3 results that met expectations. The company maintained FY23 guidance, but announced surprising cash-conservation...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

Pricing still appears stagnant, but a sharp rebound in container volumes moving into the ports along North America's Pacific coast in September...

Tracking Traffic

October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review - $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie

The TOPIX FFW trade approaches. 4+ trading days left. So far the Top 40 Buys vs Sells are +1+% since I wrote two weeks ago. Shin-Etsu/Ibiden is...

Travis Lundy

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