Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Yes, carrier margins and returns in Q2/H1 plunged dramatically compared to 2022</li>
<li>
Yes, carrier margins and returns in Q2/H1 were quite good by historical standards</li>
<li>In this insight we provide context to help readers evaluate carrier performance in 2023</li>
</ul>



Yes, carrier margins and returns in Q2/H1 plunged dramatically compared to 2022

Yes, carrier margins and returns in Q2/H1 were quite good by historical standards
In this insight we provide context to help readers evaluate carrier performance in 2023


Evergreen Marine: 'H1 Earnings Plunged Dramatically Y/Y' | Also, 'H1 Earnings Were Pretty Damn Good'

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On Friday container giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ap-moeller-maersk-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22428:1" rel="noopener">AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)</a> raised FY23 guidance, lifting the bottom of its EBITDA range &amp; increasing target FCF from US$2bn+ to US$3bn+</li>
<li>Despite beating Q2 expectations and raising FY guidance, management warned that the "normalization" of container shipping conditions is taking longer than anticipated</li>
<li>Maersk's shares traded down on the news, but the company's statements confirm our thesis: market conditions in 2023 are not nearly as bad as expected (Maersk's TTM ROIC 34%!)</li>
</ul>


On Friday container giant AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC) raised FY23 guidance, lifting the bottom of its EBITDA range &amp; increasing target FCF from US$2bn+ to US$3bn+
Despite beating Q2 expectations and raising FY guidance, management warned that the "normalization" of container shipping conditions is taking longer than anticipated
Maersk's shares traded down on the news, but the company's statements confirm our thesis: market conditions in 2023 are not nearly as bad as expected (Maersk's TTM ROIC 34%!)


Maersk Q2: Raised FY23 Guidance | Beat on Earnings, Too | Takeaway: Conditions Not Disastrous

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This may get squeezy after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> announced a ¥200bn over 9mos. Do not be short. Be long. </li>
<li>On an implied stub and simple ratio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11074:1" rel="noopener">Takara Holdings (2531 JP)</a> is trading rich to 60.9%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Remain bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> vs TOPIX, especially near-term. But this is a much less exciting and squeeze-able opportunity than before,</li>
</ul>


This may get squeezy after Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) announced a ¥200bn over 9mos. Do not be short. Be long. 
On an implied stub and simple ratio, Takara Holdings (2531 JP) is trading rich to 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP). 
Remain bullish Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) vs TOPIX, especially near-term. But this is a much less exciting and squeeze-able opportunity than before,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Nippon Yusen, Takara, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, PCCW/HKT, ANZ

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In March, NYK announced a new Mid-Term Management Plan discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nippon-yusen-new-midtermplan-new-shareholder-return-policy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97501" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen - New MidTermPlan = New Shareholder Return Policy</a>. They promised a full Shareholder Return Policy in May. </li>
<li>There was limited new SRP discussion in the 9 May earnings announcement. The MTMP suggested ¥200bn over 2yrs. The (Japanese) earnings announcement did too. Then May ended. </li>
<li>Now the Buyback Plan is out. ¥200bn over 9mos. That is different. This could move. </li>
</ul>


In March, NYK announced a new Mid-Term Management Plan discussed in Nippon Yusen - New MidTermPlan = New Shareholder Return Policy. They promised a full Shareholder Return Policy in May. 
There was limited new SRP discussion in the 9 May earnings announcement. The MTMP suggested ¥200bn over 2yrs. The (Japanese) earnings announcement did too. Then May ended. 
Now the Buyback Plan is out. ¥200bn over 9mos. That is different. This could move. 


Nippon Yusen (9101) BIG Buyback Announced

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.</li>
<li>If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.</li>
<li>If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.
If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.
If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

Japan

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

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Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)

Evergreen Marine: 'H1 Earnings Plunged Dramatically Y/Y' | Also, 'H1 Earnings Were Pretty Damn Good'

Evergreen, Maersk, and ZIM have all reported H1 results. Yes, margins and returns were a fraction of what they were in 2021-22, but H123 earnings...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q2: Raised FY23 Guidance | Beat on Earnings, Too | Takeaway: Conditions Not Disastrous

Maersk Q2 results beat expectations handily. More importantly, the company raised FY23 guidance for EBITDA and FCF, though management also...

Tracking Traffic

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nippon Yusen, Takara, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, PCCW/HKT, ANZ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Nippon Yusen (9101) BIG Buyback Announced

NYK has surprised the market with a larger-than-expected buyback. It was supposed to be 200bn yen over 2yrs. It is now 200bn over 9mos. Real World...

Travis Lundy

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti

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