Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In last week's Int'l Compass (Sept. 2), we highlighted emerging markets (EEM-US, Shanghai Comp) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) as areas of bullish interest, with short-term bullish inflections suggesting the tide was turning in favor of these markets. This remains the focus in today's report, and especially on Japan; bullish price inflections and breakouts have started to proliferate, which suggests this could be the start of a broad-based rally for Japan in the weeks and months ahead.

In last week's Int'l Compass (Sept. 2), we highlighted emerging markets (EEM-US, Shanghai Comp) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) as areas of bullish interest, with short-term bullish inflections suggesting the tide was turning in favor of these markets. This remains the focus in today's report, and especially on Japan; bullish price inflections and breakouts have started to proliferate, which suggests this could be the start of a broad-based rally for Japan in the weeks and months ahead.

Buy Japan On This Breakout ; TOPIX Breaking Out To 21-Year Highs; Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Some stock names that look interesting in Japan on weakness or above breakout points. Nintendo, Oriental Land, Toshiba, NTT and McDonalds. Some names are in play due to index deletion/inclusion.The Nikkei is near 30,200 short term resistance and a bit overdone that supports rotation into stocks that have not run or have just cleared key resistance.This webcast runs through buy levels and targets on this group of stocks.

Some stock names that look interesting in Japan on weakness or above breakout points. Nintendo, Oriental Land, Toshiba, NTT and McDonalds. Some names are in play due to index deletion/inclusion.The Nikkei is near 30,200 short term resistance and a bit overdone that supports rotation into stocks that have not run or have just cleared key resistance.This webcast runs through buy levels and targets on this group of stocks.

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The telecom sector seems like a notable winner with a change in political leadership.  Pushing through mobile price reductions was one of the few policy successes for the Suga administration and record low approval ratings meant a revival of the issues was never entirely off the table. New leadership without historical ties to the regulator is an improvement. We remain positive on Japanese telecoms with Buy ratings for NTT, KDDI and Softbank.

The telecom sector seems like a notable winner with a change in political leadership.  Pushing through mobile price reductions was one of the few policy successes for the Suga administration and record low approval ratings meant a revival of the issues was never entirely off the table. New leadership without historical ties to the regulator is an improvement. We remain positive on Japanese telecoms with Buy ratings for NTT, KDDI and Softbank.   

Japan Telecoms - Surprise Resignation of the Prime Minister Should Ease Regulatory Pressure

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Evergrande, Kerry Logistics, Milton, CBA, NTT

Travis Lundy

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

With its Q1 earnings release on Friday 6 August, NTT also announced a buyback. This is the seventh large buyback in five years. The buyback programs for on-market buyback announced from 2016-2019 were ¥150bn in size, uniformly. Since then, the two on-market buybacks have been ¥250bn. One might have expected this one to be ¥150-200bn but at ¥250bn it is likely at the high end of expectations for three reasons.<ol>
<li>In order to buy back ¥300bn next time from the government, it needs to buy back ¥250bn from the market this time. </li>
<li>This larger buyback represents continued effort at offsetting the dilution from the ¥200bn share sale to Toyota in March 2020, and </li>
<li>This larger buyback represents NTT using the additional earnings power of NTT Docomo. NTT used to buy back shares from the market and from NTT, then NTT would take that cash and capital and buy back its own shares. Now NTT Docomo doesn't have to spend any money on buybacks from minority shareholders. All of its cash can go to the parent NTT. NTT therefore has more to spend on buybacks. Given several of the recent NTT Docomo buybacks were on the order of ¥300bn, the one-third of that amount which did not accrue to NTT now does. So now it accrues to NTT shareholders. </li>
</ol>I expect a buyback size of ¥250-300bn to be the new standard.Of course, this lets us take a look at NTT vs its competitors KDDI and Softbank Corp yet again, and compare the impact on the market of the various buyback programs in place.More below the fold.

With its Q1 earnings release on Friday 6 August, NTT also announced a buyback. This is the seventh large buyback in five years. The buyback programs for on-market buyback announced from 2016-2019 were ¥150bn in size, uniformly. Since then, the two on-market buybacks have been ¥250bn. One might have expected this one to be ¥150-200bn but at ¥250bn it is likely at the high end of expectations for three reasons.
In order to buy back ¥300bn next time from the government, it needs to buy back ¥250bn from the market this time. 
This larger buyback represents continued effort at offsetting the dilution from the ¥200bn share sale to Toyota in March 2020, and 
This larger buyback represents NTT using the additional earnings power of NTT Docomo. NTT used to buy back shares from the market and from NTT, then NTT would take that cash and capital and buy back its own shares. Now NTT Docomo doesn't have to spend any money on buybacks from minority shareholders. All of its cash can go to the parent NTT. NTT therefore has more to spend on buybacks. Given several of the recent NTT Docomo buybacks were on the order of ¥300bn, the one-third of that amount which did not accrue to NTT now does. So now it accrues to NTT shareholders. 
I expect a buyback size of ¥250-300bn to be the new standard.Of course, this lets us take a look at NTT vs its competitors KDDI and Softbank Corp yet again, and compare the impact on the market of the various buyback programs in place.More below the fold.

NTT Buybacks Continue - Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

Japan

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

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NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

Buy Japan On This Breakout ; TOPIX Breaking Out To 21-Year Highs; Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors

Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) was a big focus for us last week, and it remains the focus in today's report; this could be the start of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

Japan Stocks of Interest

Some stock names that look interesting in Japan on weakness or above breakout points. Nintendo, Oriental Land, Toshiba, NTT and McDonalds. A...

Thomas Schroeder

Japan Telecoms - Surprise Resignation of the Prime Minister Should Ease Regulatory Pressure

The telecom sector wins with political change. Mobile price cuts were one of the few policy successes for this PM and record low approval meant a...

Kirk Boodry

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Evergrande, Kerry Logistics, Milton, CBA, NTT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

NTT Buybacks Continue - Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

NTT Announces good earnings and a big buyback. Buybacks are normal but this buyback is the new normal, delivering NTT Docomo's earnings to NTT...

Travis Lundy

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