Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Below is a sample of the unloved Japanese stocks we focus on at Azabu Research, with key valuation metrics and latest news.</li>
<li>The average PBR in this week’s list is 0.5x and the average P/E is 5.9x.</li>
<li>Most of the stocks in this week’s round up are related to either the auto supply chain or the electric power grid.</li>
</ul>


Below is a sample of the unloved Japanese stocks we focus on at Azabu Research, with key valuation metrics and latest news.
The average PBR in this week’s list is 0.5x and the average P/E is 5.9x.
Most of the stocks in this week’s round up are related to either the auto supply chain or the electric power grid.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The 2024 U.S. presidential election could heavily impact M&amp;A, with contrasting policies from Harris and Trump potentially raising or easing regulatory barriers, especially in sectors like tech and energy.</li>
<li>Harris's focus on strict antitrust enforcement and potential corporate tax hikes contrasts with Trump’s pro-business, deregulation stance, which aims to stimulate M&amp;A by reducing regulatory challenges.</li>
<li>A Trump administration might boost investor confidence through tax cuts and reduced oversight, potentially increasing domestic M&amp;A, while Harris could promote competitive growth by supporting small and medium enterprises.</li>
</ul>


The 2024 U.S. presidential election could heavily impact M&amp;A, with contrasting policies from Harris and Trump potentially raising or easing regulatory barriers, especially in sectors like tech and energy.
Harris's focus on strict antitrust enforcement and potential corporate tax hikes contrasts with Trump’s pro-business, deregulation stance, which aims to stimulate M&amp;A by reducing regulatory challenges.
A Trump administration might boost investor confidence through tax cuts and reduced oversight, potentially increasing domestic M&amp;A, while Harris could promote competitive growth by supporting small and medium enterprises.


Potential Consequences of the U.S. Presidential Election on North America M&A

<ul>
<li>On September 26, Nippon Steel's president affirmed the company's commitment to completing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:202:1" rel="noopener">United States Steel (X US)</a> acquisition by year-end, despite the CFIUS review being extended until December.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel, with an expected value of $45.19/share offers 27% upside potential. This discount, driven by acquisition/fundamental value, supports a buy recommendation thus, I would be long U.S. Steel.</li>
<li>If the deal were to succeed, the likelihood of it closing before the end of 2024 is low, primarily due to the complexities surrounding the American presidential elections.</li>
</ul>


On September 26, Nippon Steel's president affirmed the company's commitment to completing the United States Steel (X US) acquisition by year-end, despite the CFIUS review being extended until December.
U.S. Steel, with an expected value of $45.19/share offers 27% upside potential. This discount, driven by acquisition/fundamental value, supports a buy recommendation thus, I would be long U.S. Steel.
If the deal were to succeed, the likelihood of it closing before the end of 2024 is low, primarily due to the complexities surrounding the American presidential elections.


Nippon Steel/US Steel: Appealing Expected Value

Japan

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)

Unloved Japan Round-Up

Some Autos, Steel, and Electric Power companies in Japan now offering yields that compete with U.S. Treasuries. The end of the hurricane season...

Michael Allen

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Potential Consequences of the U.S. Presidential Election on North America M&A

The 2024 U.S. presidential election could heavily impact M&A, with contrasting policies from Harris and Trump potentially raising or easing...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Appealing Expected Value

Nippon Steel remains committed to acquiring U.S. Steel despite CFIUS review extension, offering 27% upside potential. Deal may not close before...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Round-Up

Some Autos, Steel, and Electric Power companies in Japan now offering yields that compete with U.S. Treasuries. The end of the hurricane season...

Michael Allen

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Potential Consequences of the U.S. Presidential Election on North America M&A

The 2024 U.S. presidential election could heavily impact M&A, with contrasting policies from Harris and Trump potentially raising or easing...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Appealing Expected Value

​Nippon Steel remains committed to acquiring U.S. Steel despite CFIUS review extension, offering 27% upside potential. Deal may not close before...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Nippon Steel remains committed to acquiring U.S. Steel despite CFIUS review extension, offering 27% upside potential. Deal may not close before...