Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Vietnamese automaker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> made its public debut on 15th August via a SPAC deal which valued the company approx. US$23bn.</li>
<li>Shares opened US$22 per share and went up to $37.06 at the end of first-day. Share price hit a peak of $82.35, however, shares closed last at $34.71 per share.</li>
<li>Our forecasts and valuation for Vinfast suggest that the company’s shares are still overvalued even after falling more than 50% from its peak over the last few days.</li>
</ul>


Vietnamese automaker Vinfast (VFS US) made its public debut on 15th August via a SPAC deal which valued the company approx. US$23bn.
Shares opened US$22 per share and went up to $37.06 at the end of first-day. Share price hit a peak of $82.35, however, shares closed last at $34.71 per share.
Our forecasts and valuation for Vinfast suggest that the company’s shares are still overvalued even after falling more than 50% from its peak over the last few days.


Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We spoke to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gogoro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35728:1" rel="noopener">Gogoro (GGR US)</a>, a beaten-down and under-covered Taiwan EV play listed in the US -- As part of a hunt for contrarian plays.</li>
<li>The company has faced headwinds recently, with hardware sales relatively weak vs. its local market. The battery swapping business is compelling and steadily growing however.</li>
<li>We find the company fairly valued unless it can show more growth -- We value it as two parts, a EV 2-wheeler hardware business and an infrastructure-like battery swapping business. </li>
</ul>


We spoke to Gogoro (GGR US), a beaten-down and under-covered Taiwan EV play listed in the US -- As part of a hunt for contrarian plays.
The company has faced headwinds recently, with hardware sales relatively weak vs. its local market. The battery swapping business is compelling and steadily growing however.
We find the company fairly valued unless it can show more growth -- We value it as two parts, a EV 2-wheeler hardware business and an infrastructure-like battery swapping business. 


Gogoro: Hunting for a Contrarian EV Buy; Valuing It as a Utility/Infra Business

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 0.4% YoY and 10% MoM in Jul 2023 amid high base, 2% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>YTD retail sales volume rose 4% YoY. Wholesale volume fell 3% YoY and 7% MoM to 2.10mn units in Jul 2023, the second highest Jul in history, and 2% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +0.84mn units YoY) YTD, aided by 78% YoY growth (or +0.92mn units YoY) of exports. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 0.4% YoY and 10% MoM in Jul 2023 amid high base, 2% higher than our prior forecast.YTD retail sales volume rose 4% YoY. Wholesale volume fell 3% YoY and 7% MoM to 2.10mn units in Jul 2023, the second highest Jul in history, and 2% higher than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +0.84mn units YoY) YTD, aided by 78% YoY growth (or +0.92mn units YoY) of exports. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – 2H23 Auto Sales Could Beat Amid Resilient Jul, Aug

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>PDD: Temu reportedly increases product prices in certain regions (+)</li>
<li>Atour Lifestyle: Summar vacation season is coming to a end, hotel RevPAR begin to decline</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/LI: Xpeng to launch G9 facelift in September ( +/-/-)</li>
</ul>


PDD: Temu reportedly increases product prices in certain regions (+)
Atour Lifestyle: Summar vacation season is coming to a end, hotel RevPAR begin to decline
XPEV/NIO/LI: Xpeng to launch G9 facelift in September ( +/-/-)


China TMT Update-PDD/ATAT/XPEV/NIO/LI-Temu Increases Prices/Hotel RevPAR Declines/G9 Facelift

<ul>
<li>ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions likely to exempt publicly traded securities (+/+/+)</li>
<li>NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price of its 001 model (-/-)</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y prices and offers insurance subsidy for Model 3 (-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions likely to exempt publicly traded securities (+/+/+)
NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price of its 001 model (-/-)
XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y prices and offers insurance subsidy for Model 3 (-/-/-)


China TMT Update-ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK/NIO/1211.HK/XPEV/BYD-Tesla Cuts Model Y Prices/Geely Cuts Price

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Gogoro: Hunting for a Contrarian EV Buy; Valuing It as a Utility/Infra Business

The company has faced headwinds recently, with hardware sales relatively weak vs. its local market. The battery swapping business is compelling and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

China Auto Sector – 2H23 Auto Sales Could Beat Amid Resilient Jul, Aug

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 0.4% YoY and 10% MoM in Jul 2023 amid high base, 2% higher than our prior forecast.

CMB International

China TMT Update-PDD/ATAT/XPEV/NIO/LI-Temu Increases Prices/Hotel RevPAR Declines/G9 Facelift

PDD: Temu reportedly increases product prices in certain regions (+)/Atour Lifestyle: hotel RevPAR begin to decline/XPEV/NIO/LI: Xpeng to launch G9...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK/NIO/1211.HK/XPEV/BYD-Tesla Cuts Model Y Prices/Geely Cuts Price

ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions;NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price;XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

​After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Gogoro: Hunting for a Contrarian EV Buy; Valuing It as a Utility/Infra Business

The company has faced headwinds recently, with hardware sales relatively weak vs. its local market. The battery swapping business is compelling and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

China Auto Sector – 2H23 Auto Sales Could Beat Amid Resilient Jul, Aug

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 0.4% YoY and 10% MoM in Jul 2023 amid high base, 2% higher than our prior forecast.

CMB International

China TMT Update-PDD/ATAT/XPEV/NIO/LI-Temu Increases Prices/Hotel RevPAR Declines/G9 Facelift

PDD: Temu reportedly increases product prices in certain regions (+)/Atour Lifestyle: hotel RevPAR begin to decline/XPEV/NIO/LI: Xpeng to launch G9...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK/NIO/1211.HK/XPEV/BYD-Tesla Cuts Model Y Prices/Geely Cuts Price

ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions;NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price;XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...