Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (9863 HK)</a> raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing at the low-end. The stock was listed on 29th Sep 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.</li>
<li>LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (9863 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing at the low-end. The stock was listed on 29th Sep 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.
LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up - A Precursor to a Larger Release Later in the Year

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect NIO to see a share loss in 2023 due to 1) late delivery of its key models; 2) conservative channel expansion plan; 3) uncompetitive pricing. </li>
<li>We see headwinds for NIO’s 2023 GPM, including 1) ~10% discount on its legacy models in Q1; 2) weaker product mix toward low-price ET5 into Q3.</li>
<li>3) limited expansion of scale economy due to diminished momentum. ● DG to SELL for weak momentum and ongoing margin pressure into 3Q22.</li>
</ul>


We expect NIO to see a share loss in 2023 due to 1) late delivery of its key models; 2) conservative channel expansion plan; 3) uncompetitive pricing. 
We see headwinds for NIO’s 2023 GPM, including 1) ~10% discount on its legacy models in Q1; 2) weaker product mix toward low-price ET5 into Q3.
3) limited expansion of scale economy due to diminished momentum. ● DG to SELL for weak momentum and ongoing margin pressure into 3Q22.


[NIO Inc. (NIO US) Rating Change]: DG for Weak Momentum and Margin Pressure into Q3

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close on 10 March.</li>
<li>Using prices from the close on 24 February, estimated one-way turnover is 3.28% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,162m at the close on 10 March.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> is quite high in terms of days of ADV to cover and in terms of float.</li>
</ul>


As expected, XPeng (9868 HK) replaces China Feihe (6186 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 10 March.
Using prices from the close on 24 February, estimated one-way turnover is 3.28% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,162m at the close on 10 March.
Short interest on XPeng (9868 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK) is quite high in terms of days of ADV to cover and in terms of float.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Xpeng (9868) Replaces China Feihe (6186); Li Auto (2015) Biggest Gainer

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: South Korean exports, imports, PPI, and policy rates.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (9866 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: South Korean exports, imports, PPI, and policy rates.

 Companies mentioned:Pinduoduo (PDD US), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), NIO Inc (9866 HK), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)



GEM Weekly (24 Feb 2023): South Korean Rates; Pinduoduo, JD.com, NIO, TSMC

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), the world’s largest electric-vehicle (EV) battery-maker, is in talks to offer automakers steeply discounted prices in exchange for sourcing the vast bulk of their power cells from the company in a bid to stave off growing competition from smaller rivals, Caixin has learned.</li><li>If the plan goes ahead, CATL will sell the strategic clients EV batteries made from self-manufactured lithium carbonate at a low price.</li><li>In return, they will be required to sign a contract committing them to buy 80% of their EV batteries from CATL over the next three years, a person close to the company told Caixin on Sunday.</li></ul>

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), the world’s largest electric-vehicle (EV) battery-maker, is in talks to offer automakers steeply discounted prices in exchange for sourcing the vast bulk of their power cells from the company in a bid to stave off growing competition from smaller rivals, Caixin has learned.If the plan goes ahead, CATL will sell the strategic clients EV batteries made from self-manufactured lithium carbonate at a low price.In return, they will be required to sign a contract committing them to buy 80% of their EV batteries from CATL over the next three years, a person close to the company told Caixin on Sunday.

CATL Offering Steep Discounts to Automakers in Quid Pro Quo Deal, Source Says

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (9866 HK)

Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up - A Precursor to a Larger Release Later in the Year

Leapmotor (9863 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing at the low-end. The stock was listed on 29th Sep 2022, its six-month...

Sumeet Singh

[NIO Inc. (NIO US) Rating Change]: DG for Weak Momentum and Margin Pressure into Q3

We expect NIO to see a share loss in 2023 due to 1) late delivery of its key models; 2) conservative channel expansion plan; 3) uncompetitive pricing.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Xpeng (9868) Replaces China Feihe (6186); Li Auto (2015) Biggest Gainer

Xpeng replaces China Feihe in the HSCEI at the close on 10 March. Li Auto is the biggest gainer following a change in index handling for dual...

Brian Freitas

GEM Weekly (24 Feb 2023): South Korean Rates; Pinduoduo, JD.com, NIO, TSMC

The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

CATL Offering Steep Discounts to Automakers in Quid Pro Quo Deal, Source Says

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), the world’s largest electric-vehicle (EV) battery-maker, is in talks to offer automakers steeply...

Caixin Global

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