Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace</li>
<li>Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels</li>
<li>HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID</li>
</ul>


Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace
Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels
HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID


J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We believe SF's core express margins are higher than most of its peers' margins</li>
<li>But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers</li>
<li>One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation</li>
</ul>


We believe SF's core express margins are higher than most of its peers' margins
But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers
One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

<ul>
<li>SF Holding's time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals</li>
<li>We believe SF dominates China's domestic inter-city air express segment</li>
<li>High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view</li>
</ul>


SF Holding's time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals
We believe SF dominates China's domestic inter-city air express segment
High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

<ul>
<li>In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends</li>
<li>Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124</li>
<li>Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024</li>
</ul>


In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends
Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124
Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024


SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

<ul>
<li>CaiNiao and JD Logistics have grown far faster than their parents' platforms in recent years, and also far faster than "plain vanilla" Chinese express companies</li>
<li>CaiNiao, JD Logistics, and SF Holding enjoy more avenues to growth than just the continued gradual expansion of China's domestic e-commerce activity</li>
<li>In the medium-term, we believe shares of market leader SF Holding can outperform a basket of shares from SF's "plain vanilla" peers in express</li>
</ul>


CaiNiao and JD Logistics have grown far faster than their parents' platforms in recent years, and also far faster than "plain vanilla" Chinese express companies
CaiNiao, JD Logistics, and SF Holding enjoy more avenues to growth than just the continued gradual expansion of China's domestic e-commerce activity
In the medium-term, we believe shares of market leader SF Holding can outperform a basket of shares from SF's "plain vanilla" peers in express


CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

China

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

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Yunda Holding (002120 CH)

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

In this insight we compare SF Holding's core EBITDA margins and EV / EBITDA valuation to peers in the Chinese and US express delivery segments.

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

SF Holding's exposure to China's domestic time-definite (air) express services segment is a positive differentiator that sets it apart from all of...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

In this insight we review SF Holding's recent results, analyze sales mix and its impact on margins, and explain trends in recent monthly sales growth.

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

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