Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>With Tesla down 22.4% from its recent all-time high and as much 31.3% at the lows yesterday, and competition increasing with the high profile SPAC investment in Lucid, we believe it is time to seriously consider the short thesis again, for EVs overall, but Tesla in particular.</p>

With Tesla down 22.4% from its recent all-time high and as much 31.3% at the lows yesterday, and competition increasing with the high profile SPAC investment in Lucid, we believe it is time to seriously consider the short thesis again, for EVs overall, but Tesla in particular.

Tesla – Threats from the Taycan and Lucid Air

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Hanwha Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<p>After the market close on 21 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8656:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS)</a> announced that it will conduct a rights offering worth 1.2 trillion won (US$1.1 billion) (3.14 million shares). In terms of shares outstanding, this 3.14 million shares related to rights offering represents 19.6% of total shares outstanding. The initial expected rights offering price is 38,200 won, which is 17% lower than the current price of 46,150 won. Hanwha Solutions plans to use the proceeds to further invest in solar and hydrogen related businesses. </p><p>There have been several large scale rights offerings in Korea in the past six months related to companies such as POSCO Chemical, Doosan Fuelcell, &amp; CS Wind that are trying to expand their businesses in the rechargeable batteries,  fuel cell, and wind power. On average, these three companies' share prices are up 31% from the announcement date of the rights offerings to current date.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Nonetheless, we have a negative view of this rights offering. There are three main reasons why we believe the market is not likely to view this big rights offering of Hanwha Solutions as favorably as compared to the three companies mentioned above:</p>
<p><strong>1) Bad publicity/investment in Nikola Corp</strong> - Investors view the Hanwha Group's investment in Nikola Corp negatively and this reflects a poor track record in investing in a hydrogen based company. </p>
<p><strong>2) Lower ROE</strong> - In general, POSCO Chemical and CS Wind generate higher ROE than Hanwha Solutions and investors prefer to allocate more capital to companies that generate higher ROE and want to reinvest in their own businesses. </p>
<p><strong>3) Late in the cycle/momentum</strong> - This big rights offering announcement by Hanwha Solutions comes a bit later in the overall boom momentum cycle that the stock market has been enjoying since March 2020. The market has been heavily driven by momentum driven investors, especially in the past several months and there are credible concerns that the market momentum could be waning. </p>
</div>

After the market close on 21 December, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS) announced that it will conduct a rights offering worth 1.2 trillion won (US$1.1 billion) (3.14 million shares). In terms of shares outstanding, this 3.14 million shares related to rights offering represents 19.6% of total shares outstanding. The initial expected rights offering price is 38,200 won, which is 17% lower than the current price of 46,150 won. Hanwha Solutions plans to use the proceeds to further invest in solar and hydrogen related businesses. There have been several large scale rights offerings in Korea in the past six months related to companies such as POSCO Chemical, Doosan Fuelcell, &amp; CS Wind that are trying to expand their businesses in the rechargeable batteries,  fuel cell, and wind power. On average, these three companies' share prices are up 31% from the announcement date of the rights offerings to current date.
Nonetheless, we have a negative view of this rights offering. There are three main reasons why we believe the market is not likely to view this big rights offering of Hanwha Solutions as favorably as compared to the three companies mentioned above:
1) Bad publicity/investment in Nikola Corp - Investors view the Hanwha Group's investment in Nikola Corp negatively and this reflects a poor track record in investing in a hydrogen based company. 
2) Lower ROE - In general, POSCO Chemical and CS Wind generate higher ROE than Hanwha Solutions and investors prefer to allocate more capital to companies that generate higher ROE and want to reinvest in their own businesses. 
3) Late in the cycle/momentum - This big rights offering announcement by Hanwha Solutions comes a bit later in the overall boom momentum cycle that the stock market has been enjoying since March 2020. The market has been heavily driven by momentum driven investors, especially in the past several months and there are credible concerns that the market momentum could be waning. 


Hanwha Solutions - Trading Strategy Post Its Announcement of a Rights Offering of 1.2 Trillion Won

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p>Hot on the heels of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a>'s recent offering to raise net proceeds of $1.3 billion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-motors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (XPEV US)</a> is seeking to raise as much as $2.0 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 40 million ADSs. The funds will be used for R&amp;D (Smart EVs and software, hardware and data technologies), S&amp;M expenses (expansion of sales channels, supercharging network and international footprint), investments in core technologies of Smart EV, and working capital needs.</p></div><div><p>The follow-on offering comes just three months from the August IPO, where Xpeng raised net proceeds of $1.4 billion at $15.00 per ADS. The shares have been of a tear and have risen 3.3x since the IPO. The net cash including lease liabilities stood at $2.4 billion at the end of 9M20, which points to an opportunistic raise to build a war chest. The raise is unsurprisingly in light of Li Auto's successful raise and the strong share price run, which indicates that investor enthusiasm for the EV sector remains undiminished.  </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>We remain bullish on Xpeng’s prospects and believe that the company remains well-placed to claim its place as a key EV player. Notwithstanding, the strong share price run, the shares continue to look attractive relative to EV peers. Overall, we would participate in the placement.</p></div></div></div>

Hot on the heels of the Li Auto Inc. (LI US)'s recent offering to raise net proceeds of $1.3 billion, Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is seeking to raise as much as $2.0 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 40 million ADSs. The funds will be used for R&amp;D (Smart EVs and software, hardware and data technologies), S&amp;M expenses (expansion of sales channels, supercharging network and international footprint), investments in core technologies of Smart EV, and working capital needs.The follow-on offering comes just three months from the August IPO, where Xpeng raised net proceeds of $1.4 billion at $15.00 per ADS. The shares have been of a tear and have risen 3.3x since the IPO. The net cash including lease liabilities stood at $2.4 billion at the end of 9M20, which points to an opportunistic raise to build a war chest. The raise is unsurprisingly in light of Li Auto's successful raise and the strong share price run, which indicates that investor enthusiasm for the EV sector remains undiminished.  We remain bullish on Xpeng’s prospects and believe that the company remains well-placed to claim its place as a key EV player. Notwithstanding, the strong share price run, the shares continue to look attractive relative to EV peers. Overall, we would participate in the placement.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> is seeking to raise as much as $1.6 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 47 million ADSs. The funds will be used for R&amp;D of next-generation electric vehicle technologies (such as high-voltage platform, high C-rate battery, and ultra-fast charging), the next BEV platform and future car models, and autonomous driving technologies and solutions.</p></div><div><p>The follow-on offering comes just four months from the July IPO, where Li Auto raised net proceeds of $1 billion at $11.50 per ADS. The shares have been of a tear and have risen 3x since the IPO. The net cash including lease liabilities stood at $2.5 billion at the end of 9M20, which points to an opportunistic raise to build a war chest.  </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>We remain bullish on Li Auto’ prospects and believe that the company remains well-placed to deliver profitability in 2022. Notwithstanding, the strong share price run, the shares continue to look attractive relative to EV peers. Overall, we would participate in the placement.</p></div></div></div>

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) is seeking to raise as much as $1.6 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 47 million ADSs. The funds will be used for R&amp;D of next-generation electric vehicle technologies (such as high-voltage platform, high C-rate battery, and ultra-fast charging), the next BEV platform and future car models, and autonomous driving technologies and solutions.The follow-on offering comes just four months from the July IPO, where Li Auto raised net proceeds of $1 billion at $11.50 per ADS. The shares have been of a tear and have risen 3x since the IPO. The net cash including lease liabilities stood at $2.5 billion at the end of 9M20, which points to an opportunistic raise to build a war chest.  We remain bullish on Li Auto’ prospects and believe that the company remains well-placed to deliver profitability in 2022. Notwithstanding, the strong share price run, the shares continue to look attractive relative to EV peers. Overall, we would participate in the placement.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our US Defense Composite Indicator is showing signs of bottoming following pre-election uncertainty; the indicator is strongly correlated with defense prime equity relative returns</li>
<li>The momentum of decline was arrested immediately post-elections as "Blue Wave" predictions failed to materialize, followed on by Biden's announcement of a relatively hawkish Pentagon transition team</li>
<li>Cyclical rotation and an October lull in Department of Defense contracting may have magnified the negative trend, but incoming data suggests the worst may be over</li>
<li>In October, our Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Indicator took a hit as the Nikola (NKLA) scandal unfolded and the GM/NKLA partnership was in doubt</li>
<li>Following some volatility in key hydrogen economy equities, our indicator surged in the MTD on a barrage of positive news flow from multiple auto &amp; truck players, as well as hydrogen infrastructure news; though "Blue Wave" expectations of a supercharged renewables push were initially questioned, the theme resumed its rally in November </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Our US Defense Composite Indicator is showing signs of bottoming following pre-election uncertainty; the indicator is strongly correlated with defense prime equity relative returns
The momentum of decline was arrested immediately post-elections as "Blue Wave" predictions failed to materialize, followed on by Biden's announcement of a relatively hawkish Pentagon transition team
Cyclical rotation and an October lull in Department of Defense contracting may have magnified the negative trend, but incoming data suggests the worst may be over
In October, our Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Indicator took a hit as the Nikola (NKLA) scandal unfolded and the GM/NKLA partnership was in doubt
Following some volatility in key hydrogen economy equities, our indicator surged in the MTD on a barrage of positive news flow from multiple auto &amp; truck players, as well as hydrogen infrastructure news; though "Blue Wave" expectations of a supercharged renewables push were initially questioned, the theme resumed its rally in November 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots: US Defense Equity Sentiment Bottoming; Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Surges Again

United States

Nikola Corporation operates as a zero-emissions transportation and infrastructure solution provider. The Company is a designer and manufacturer of battery-electric and hydrogen-electric vehicles, electric vehicle drivetrains, vehicle components, energy storage systems, and hydrogen fueling station infrastructure.

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Nikola Corp (NKLA US)

Tesla – Threats from the Taycan and Lucid Air

With Tesla down more than 20% from its recent highs, we examine the prospects for the EV bubble finally popping as competition intensifies just as...

Mio Kato

Hanwha Solutions - Trading Strategy Post Its Announcement of a Rights Offering of 1.2 Trillion Won

In this insight, we provide a trading strategy for Hanwha Solutions post its announcement of the 1.2 trillion won in rights offering.

Douglas Kim

Xpeng Placement: Charging Up

Xpeng is seeking to raise as much as $2.0 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 40 million ADSs. We remain bullish on Xpeng’s...

Arun George

Li Auto Placement: Revving Up

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) is seeking to raise as much as $1.6 billion (at the last close price) through an issue of 47 million ADSs. Overall, we would...

Arun George

TMI Snapshots: US Defense Equity Sentiment Bottoming; Hydrogen Economy Sentiment Surges Again

We see clear signs of a bottom forming in US defense equities with a split government and hawkish Biden Pentagon transition team. In addition, our...

Elan Gore

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