Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>India’s Nifty Index has started the year significantly up and is testing key levels</li>
<li>These converge at 17,485-17,640 and should be watched closely in the short term</li>
<li>We have already seen a break when the Nifty Index is measured in USD terms</li>
</ul>


India’s Nifty Index has started the year significantly up and is testing key levels
These converge at 17,485-17,640 and should be watched closely in the short term
We have already seen a break when the Nifty Index is measured in USD terms


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

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<ul>
<li>India's bear stance and short from 18,300 has just registered a fresh sell signal near the 17,800 resistance. The bear flag will break lower and test the 16,500/700 target zone.</li>
<li>The bear wedge displays an a-b-c corrective bounce with 17,200 pattern support as the level to  crack.</li>
<li>USD/INR has been a top USD long theme for a major upside breakout and just clearing the 75.50/60 old high resistance.</li>
</ul>


India's bear stance and short from 18,300 has just registered a fresh sell signal near the 17,800 resistance. The bear flag will break lower and test the 16,500/700 target zone.
The bear wedge displays an a-b-c corrective bounce with 17,200 pattern support as the level to  crack.
USD/INR has been a top USD long theme for a major upside breakout and just clearing the 75.50/60 old high resistance.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals (APHS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge (INFOE)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil (IOCL)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India (COAL)</a> in the NIFTY50.</li>
<li>The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.</li>
</ul>


Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see Apollo Hospitals (APHS) and Info Edge (INFOE) replacing Indian Oil (IOCL) and Coal India (COAL) in the NIFTY50.
The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.
The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

<ul>
<li>India's Nifty displays deteriorating upside moment at our 18,500 top zone and short area to pressure pivot support at 17,800. Banks showing lead underperformance.</li>
<li>Nifty 18,500 and 18,775 represents our top and overshoot zone with a risk pivot above 18,775. Our downside objective lies at 16,700.</li>
<li>Banks are underperforming but due for a minor cycle bounce that must be factored into a short game plan.</li>
</ul>


India's Nifty displays deteriorating upside moment at our 18,500 top zone and short area to pressure pivot support at 17,800. Banks showing lead underperformance.
Nifty 18,500 and 18,775 represents our top and overshoot zone with a risk pivot above 18,775. Our downside objective lies at 16,700.
Banks are underperforming but due for a minor cycle bounce that must be factored into a short game plan.


<div><p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.</p></div><div>
<p>The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.</p>
<p>With 6 days to go in the review period, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> as a high probability index addition. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> is the lowest ranked index constituent and is a likely deletion from the index.</p>
<p>There is a (slim) possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> being deleted from the index if it fails the annualised traded value test. As it stands, it is touch and go for the stock.</p>
<p>Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> and sell over 3.5 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a>. If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is deleted instead, passive trackers will need to sell 7 days of ADV on the stock.</p>
<p>In terms of delivery volumes, the impact is much larger with passive trackers needing to buy 8.5 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>, while selling either 8.8 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> or 13 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a>.</p>
</div>

The S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.
The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
With 6 days to go in the review period, we see Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) as a high probability index addition. Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) is the lowest ranked index constituent and is a likely deletion from the index.
There is a (slim) possibility of Nestle India (NEST IN) being deleted from the index if it fails the annualised traded value test. As it stands, it is touch and go for the stock.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV on Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) and sell over 3.5 days of ADV on Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN). If Nestle India (NEST IN) is deleted instead, passive trackers will need to sell 7 days of ADV on the stock.
In terms of delivery volumes, the impact is much larger with passive trackers needing to buy 8.5 days on Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN), while selling either 8.8 days on Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) or 13 days on Nestle India (NEST IN).


Sensex Dec 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Should Be Added, Deletion Has An Interesting Option

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

India: The First Break of the Year?

The rebound in India's Nifty Index is looking increasingly encouraging, especially if we can break above 17,640. There is already a bullish break...

Shyam Devani

Nifty Fresh Short Signal

India's bear stance and short from 18,300 has just registered a fresh sell signal near the 17,800 resistance. The bear flag will break lower and...

Thomas Schroeder

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

High probability changes are inclusion of Apollo Hospitals & deletion of IOCL, while there is a lower probability of Info Edge being added & COAL...

Brian Freitas

Nifty Top and Short

India's Nifty displays deteriorating upside moment at our 18,500 top zone and short area to pressure pivot support at 17,800. Banks showing lead...

Thomas Schroeder

Sensex Dec 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Should Be Added, Deletion Has An Interesting Option

Near the end of the review period, we see Wipro as a high probability add. Bajaj Auto could be deleted as the lowest ranked constituent, but Nestle...

Brian Freitas