Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> last week closed down (CC=-1) and it's moving towards the Q2/median support at 19154.</li>
<li>The Index is not as oversold WEEKLY and MONTHLY as some of its other peers in the APAC group and is expected to rebound this week or the next.</li>
<li>Suggested support prices to go LONG are found in the 19154 to 18682 price area, the rebound should unfold in November and could last the entire month.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index last week closed down (CC=-1) and it's moving towards the Q2/median support at 19154.
The Index is not as oversold WEEKLY and MONTHLY as some of its other peers in the APAC group and is expected to rebound this week or the next.
Suggested support prices to go LONG are found in the 19154 to 18682 price area, the rebound should unfold in November and could last the entire month.


EQD | The NIFTY Could Find WEEKLY Support Soon and Bounce

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Foreign investors sold ~5.7m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> from July to September. That selling has pushed foreign room above the key 15% threshold.</li>
<li>With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy a chunk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> stock at the end of November.</li>
<li>There will be positioning on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> though it appears some of that was taken off in the last couple of days.</li>
</ul>


Foreign investors sold ~5.7m shares of Indusind Bank (IIB IN) from July to September. That selling has pushed foreign room above the key 15% threshold.
With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy a chunk of Indusind Bank (IIB IN) stock at the end of November.
There will be positioning on Indusind Bank (IIB IN) though it appears some of that was taken off in the last couple of days.


IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Passive Buying Coming Up as Foreign Room Crosses Key Threshold

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY 50 Index</a> closed last week up at 19751.05, 2nd week up, in synch with the S&amp;P 500 INDEX WEEKLY bounce.</li>
<li>The index has not moved up much from a price perspective, weak bounce. Resistance levels must be monitored: if the index rallies this week it could pull back next week.</li>
<li>The trade orientation is to go SHORT once the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> reaches Q2/Q3 OVERBOUGHT resistance levels in the 20167-20230 price area, this week. SHORT Trade at Close is also valid.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY 50 Index closed last week up at 19751.05, 2nd week up, in synch with the S&amp;P 500 INDEX WEEKLY bounce.
The index has not moved up much from a price perspective, weak bounce. Resistance levels must be monitored: if the index rallies this week it could pull back next week.
The trade orientation is to go SHORT once the NIFTY reaches Q2/Q3 OVERBOUGHT resistance levels in the 20167-20230 price area, this week. SHORT Trade at Close is also valid.


EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Weak Bounce, Ready to Fall Next Week?

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tensions Rise

<ul>
<li>Foreign shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has dropped to 59% and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:559:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)</a> premium to the local line has dropped to 7%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has underperformed its peers and the local indices on expectations of lower NIMs and higher NPAs.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> in December and March. Further passive buying will require foreign room to increase above 25% which will first require foreign investor selling.</li>
</ul>


Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 59% and the HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) premium to the local line has dropped to 7%.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has underperformed its peers and the local indices on expectations of lower NIMs and higher NPAs.
There will be passive buying in HDFC Bank in December and March. Further passive buying will require foreign room to increase above 25% which will first require foreign investor selling.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

EQD | The NIFTY Could Find WEEKLY Support Soon and Bounce

The NIFTY Index is down for a second week, and moving towards Q2/median support at 19154. It's expected to rebound soon: suggested support prices...

Nico Rosti

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Passive Buying Coming Up as Foreign Room Crosses Key Threshold

Foreign investors sold IndusInd Bank from July to Sep. With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy IndusInd in Nov. There is...

Brian Freitas

EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Weak Bounce, Ready to Fall Next Week?

The NIFTY 50 Index closed higher last week, but resistance levels should be monitored as a potential pullback could occur the week after this, if...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tensions Rise

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

Foreign investors have sold HDFCB post merger leading to foreign room crossing 20%. The ADR premium has dropped to 7% and could drop further. There...

Brian Freitas

EQD | The NIFTY Could Find WEEKLY Support Soon and Bounce

​The NIFTY Index is down for a second week, and moving towards Q2/median support at 19154. It's expected to rebound soon: suggested support prices...

Nico Rosti

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Passive Buying Coming Up as Foreign Room Crosses Key Threshold

Foreign investors sold IndusInd Bank from July to Sep. With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy IndusInd in Nov. There is...

Brian Freitas

EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Weak Bounce, Ready to Fall Next Week?

​The NIFTY 50 Index closed higher last week, but resistance levels should be monitored as a potential pullback could occur the week after this, if...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tensions Rise

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

Foreign investors have sold HDFCB post merger leading to foreign room crossing 20%. The ADR premium has dropped to 7% and could drop further. There...

Brian Freitas

The NIFTY Index is down for a second week, and moving towards Q2/median support at 19154. It's expected to rebound soon: suggested support prices...

The NIFTY 50 Index closed higher last week, but resistance levels should be monitored as a potential pullback could occur the week after this, if...