Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> was supposed to continue its rally but has stalled a bit this week.</li>
<li>This modest pullback could be a buy-the-dip opportunity, based on our WEEKLY models reading.</li>
<li>The price support area to buy is between the Last WEEKLY Close and  21229.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index was supposed to continue its rally but has stalled a bit this week.
This modest pullback could be a buy-the-dip opportunity, based on our WEEKLY models reading.
The price support area to buy is between the Last WEEKLY Close and  21229.


EQD | NIFTY's Uncertainty: The Rally Could Pause for 1 More Week

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> has witnessed a significant decline, falling below its 200-DMA, a key technical indicator, for the first time since April 2023.</li>
<li>Historical analysis reveals that Nifty has traded below this level approximately 30% of the time since 1996, suggesting that this occurrence is not as unusual as it might initially seem.</li>
<li>While short-term market volatility is anticipated, historical data demonstrates that the Nifty has generally recovered strongly over longer timeframes following similar dips below its 200-DMA.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has witnessed a significant decline, falling below its 200-DMA, a key technical indicator, for the first time since April 2023.
Historical analysis reveals that Nifty has traded below this level approximately 30% of the time since 1996, suggesting that this occurrence is not as unusual as it might initially seem.
While short-term market volatility is anticipated, historical data demonstrates that the Nifty has generally recovered strongly over longer timeframes following similar dips below its 200-DMA.


Nifty Below 200-DMA: A Sign of Bear Market or a Buying Opportunity?

<ul>
<li>Last week at Close the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> was OVERBOUGHT, this week it became quickly OVERSOLD, bouncing off from a price area near the Inner Fence support  levels for CC=-1.</li>
<li>Another week down is possible but we see strong support in the 21250-20800 price area.</li>
<li>Should that support area be reached, it would be a good opportunity to re-enter this index's Bull market.</li>
</ul>


Last week at Close the NIFTY Index was OVERBOUGHT, this week it became quickly OVERSOLD, bouncing off from a price area near the Inner Fence support  levels for CC=-1.
Another week down is possible but we see strong support in the 21250-20800 price area.
Should that support area be reached, it would be a good opportunity to re-enter this index's Bull market.


EQD | NIFTY Pullback Already OVERSOLD: Prepare for WEEKLY LONG Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> closed up last week (CC=+1), it is not overbought yet but it could become so at the end of this week (Friday).</li>
<li>Resistance begins at 22280/22800, these are the price areas from where SHORT trades can be initiated (target: 1 weeks reversal, close trade at Close).</li>
<li>Covering LONG holdings with Covered CALLs is also possible, Strikes should be =&gt;22800.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index closed up last week (CC=+1), it is not overbought yet but it could become so at the end of this week (Friday).
Resistance begins at 22280/22800, these are the price areas from where SHORT trades can be initiated (target: 1 weeks reversal, close trade at Close).
Covering LONG holdings with Covered CALLs is also possible, Strikes should be =&gt;22800.


EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday...

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

EQD | NIFTY's Uncertainty: The Rally Could Pause for 1 More Week

The NIFTY Index rally has paused, presenting a potential buy-the-dip opportunity between the Last WEEKLY Close and 21229.

Nico Rosti

Nifty Below 200-DMA: A Sign of Bear Market or a Buying Opportunity?

The NIFTY Index falls below 200-DMA for the first time since April 2023, historical analysis shows recovery trends post similar dips.

Nimish Maheshwari

EQD | NIFTY Pullback Already OVERSOLD: Prepare for WEEKLY LONG Trade

Last week the NIFTY was overbought, but this week it pulled back and became oversold, bouncing off strong support levels. The 21250-20800 area, if...

Nico Rosti

EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday...

The NIFTY closed higher last week and could become overbought by Friday, at that point going SHORT would make sense. Covered CALLs on LONG...

Nico Rosti

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | NIFTY's Uncertainty: The Rally Could Pause for 1 More Week

​The NIFTY Index rally has paused, presenting a potential buy-the-dip opportunity between the Last WEEKLY Close and 21229.

Nico Rosti

Nifty Below 200-DMA: A Sign of Bear Market or a Buying Opportunity?

​The NIFTY Index falls below 200-DMA for the first time since April 2023, historical analysis shows recovery trends post similar dips.

Nimish Maheshwari

EQD | NIFTY Pullback Already OVERSOLD: Prepare for WEEKLY LONG Trade

​Last week the NIFTY was overbought, but this week it pulled back and became oversold, bouncing off strong support levels. The 21250-20800 area, if...

Nico Rosti

EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday...

​The NIFTY closed higher last week and could become overbought by Friday, at that point going SHORT would make sense. Covered CALLs on LONG...

Nico Rosti

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

The NIFTY Index rally has paused, presenting a potential buy-the-dip opportunity between the Last WEEKLY Close and 21229.

The NIFTY Index falls below 200-DMA for the first time since April 2023, historical analysis shows recovery trends post similar dips.

Last week the NIFTY was overbought, but this week it pulled back and became oversold, bouncing off strong support levels. The 21250-20800 area, if...

The NIFTY closed higher last week and could become overbought by Friday, at that point going SHORT would make sense. Covered CALLs on LONG...

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...