Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Although the Fed paused rate hikes in July 2023, the dollar remained strong buoyed by the US economy outperforming other advanced economies.  </li>
<li>A strong dollar usually benefits domestic businesses and small caps but hurts export-focused companies and large caps in the US.</li>
<li>The current account deficits of emerging nations have been worsening due to the strong dollar and rising energy prices.</li>
</ul>


Although the Fed paused rate hikes in July 2023, the dollar remained strong buoyed by the US economy outperforming other advanced economies.  
A strong dollar usually benefits domestic businesses and small caps but hurts export-focused companies and large caps in the US.
The current account deficits of emerging nations have been worsening due to the strong dollar and rising energy prices.


Dominant Dollar (Part 1): Strong Greenback Deters EM Equities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Telecommunications Consultants India Limited (TCIL) raised US$513m by selling 15% of the shares outstanding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-hexacom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40858:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN)</a>. Post the sale, they still hold 15% of the company.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-hexacom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40858:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN)</a> will start trading on 12 April and the grey market indicates the stock will open at INR 664/share, 16.5% higher than the IPO price.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-hexacom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40858:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Hexacom</a> should be added to one smallcap index in August and another smallcap index in December. A move above INR 700/share could result in midcap inclusion in December.</li>
</ul>


Telecommunications Consultants India Limited (TCIL) raised US$513m by selling 15% of the shares outstanding in Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN). Post the sale, they still hold 15% of the company.

Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN) will start trading on 12 April and the grey market indicates the stock will open at INR 664/share, 16.5% higher than the IPO price.

Bharti Hexacom should be added to one smallcap index in August and another smallcap index in December. A move above INR 700/share could result in midcap inclusion in December.


Bharti Hexacom IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We visit the small, sandy town of Phalodi known for its betting market known as "Satta Bazaar". </li>
<li>The people of Phalodi bet on anything and have been known for making accurate predictions about major events like the Elections. </li>
<li>The pundits anticipate more traction in terms of their seat estimates starting from April 10th, 2024. The tentative estimates currently stand at 330-340 seats for the BJP.</li>
</ul>


We visit the small, sandy town of Phalodi known for its betting market known as "Satta Bazaar". 
The people of Phalodi bet on anything and have been known for making accurate predictions about major events like the Elections. 
The pundits anticipate more traction in terms of their seat estimates starting from April 10th, 2024. The tentative estimates currently stand at 330-340 seats for the BJP.


Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Market regulator intervenes to curb excess leverage in equity markets. IVs recover from last week's selloff but bound by 12-16% range. </li>
<li>Vol Regime Model clearly signals "High &amp; Down" state, projecting a slow grind lower for IVs</li>
<li>Shape of the vol surface is indicative of a market well positioned to handle corrections </li>
</ul>


Market regulator intervenes to curb excess leverage in equity markets. IVs recover from last week's selloff but bound by 12-16% range. 
Vol Regime Model clearly signals "High &amp; Down" state, projecting a slow grind lower for IVs
Shape of the vol surface is indicative of a market well positioned to handle corrections 


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 11-Mar-24 to 15-Mar-24

<ul>
<li>New ATHs again in NIFTY50! But IVs move significantly lower! Holiday shortened week ahead.</li>
<li>Vol Regime Model shifts clearly to "High &amp; Down" state. Wait-and-see approach warranted on account of 3-day weekend. </li>
<li>As of 01-Mar-2024 Weekly &amp; Monthly BankNifty options will expire on Wednesdays.  </li>
</ul>


New ATHs again in NIFTY50! But IVs move significantly lower! Holiday shortened week ahead.
Vol Regime Model shifts clearly to "High &amp; Down" state. Wait-and-see approach warranted on account of 3-day weekend. 
As of 01-Mar-2024 Weekly &amp; Monthly BankNifty options will expire on Wednesdays.  


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 04-Mar-24 to 08-Mar-24

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Dominant Dollar (Part 1): Strong Greenback Deters EM Equities

The strong dollar post-Fed rate pause in July 2023 benefits US economy but hurts export-focused businesses and emerging nations' current account...

Mint Finance

Bharti Hexacom IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

TCIL has raised US$513m in Bharti Hexacom by selling 15% of the shares in the company. Free Float will increase from 8.25% at listing to 15% by...

Brian Freitas

India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi

Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 11-Mar-24 to 15-Mar-24

IVs rebound but remain constrained within a 12-16% range. Volatility Regime Model predicts a gradual decline in IVs. Volatility surface suggests...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 04-Mar-24 to 08-Mar-24

NIFTY50 hits new highs as IVs continue to drop. Potential change in Vol Regime. But caution advised due to holiday-shortened week. BankNifty...

AceGama Advisors

Dominant Dollar (Part 1): Strong Greenback Deters EM Equities

​The strong dollar post-Fed rate pause in July 2023 benefits US economy but hurts export-focused businesses and emerging nations' current account...

Mint Finance

Bharti Hexacom IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

TCIL has raised US$513m in Bharti Hexacom by selling 15% of the shares in the company. Free Float will increase from 8.25% at listing to 15% by...

Brian Freitas

India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi

​Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 11-Mar-24 to 15-Mar-24

IVs rebound but remain constrained within a 12-16% range. Volatility Regime Model predicts a gradual decline in IVs. Volatility surface suggests...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 04-Mar-24 to 08-Mar-24

​NIFTY50 hits new highs as IVs continue to drop. Potential change in Vol Regime. But caution advised due to holiday-shortened week. BankNifty...

AceGama Advisors

The strong dollar post-Fed rate pause in July 2023 benefits US economy but hurts export-focused businesses and emerging nations' current account...

Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

NIFTY50 hits new highs as IVs continue to drop. Potential change in Vol Regime. But caution advised due to holiday-shortened week. BankNifty...