Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.</li>
<li>Another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!</li>
</ul>


The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 December and will end 29 February. The changes will be implemented at the close 14 March.</li>
<li>We see 3 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 new adds to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>On average, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have the lowest price to book value and have historically outperformed stocks migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 December and will end 29 February. The changes will be implemented at the close 14 March.
We see 3 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 new adds to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
On average, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have the lowest price to book value and have historically outperformed stocks migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Potential Migrations as Focus Is on Price to Book

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 December and will end 29 February. The changes will be implemented at the close 14 March.</li>
<li>We currently see 3 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 3 new adds to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 December and will end 29 February. The changes will be implemented at the close 14 March.
We currently see 3 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 3 new adds to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - The Outperformance Continues

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>We need to focus on the top 2 candidates among the Mid→Large candidates in the screening table mentioned above and the bottom 4 candidates among the Large→Mid candidates.</li>
<li>Since they are relatively far from the borderline, there is a significant likelihood that their classification will change. So, flow trading timing on these candidates could be brought forward.</li>
<li>Monitoring Doosan Robotics's market cap potentially nearing ₩3T and keeping an eye on the listing date of Ecopro Materials, we should make changes to the Mid→Large candidates from early December.</li>
</ul>


We need to focus on the top 2 candidates among the Mid→Large candidates in the screening table mentioned above and the bottom 4 candidates among the Large→Mid candidates.
Since they are relatively far from the borderline, there is a significant likelihood that their classification will change. So, flow trading timing on these candidates could be brought forward.
Monitoring Doosan Robotics's market cap potentially nearing ₩3T and keeping an eye on the listing date of Ecopro Materials, we should make changes to the Mid→Large candidates from early December.


A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index's Next Rebal

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nexteel reported disappointing IPO book building results from institutional investors. The IPO price has been confirmed at 11,500 won which is at the low end of the IPO valuation range.</li>
<li>A total of 700 institutions participated, with a demand ratio of 236 to 1. It is scheduled to be listed on the KOSPI exchange on 21 August. </li>
<li>Despite the weak IPO book building results, we maintain our positive view of the Nexteel IPO. Our base case valuation of Nexteel is implied market cap of 485.8 billion won.</li>
</ul>


Nexteel reported disappointing IPO book building results from institutional investors. The IPO price has been confirmed at 11,500 won which is at the low end of the IPO valuation range.
A total of 700 institutions participated, with a demand ratio of 236 to 1. It is scheduled to be listed on the KOSPI exchange on 21 August. 
Despite the weak IPO book building results, we maintain our positive view of the Nexteel IPO. Our base case valuation of Nexteel is implied market cap of 485.8 billion won.


Nexteel IPO Book Building Results Analysis

South Korea

Nexteel.Co.Ltd operates steel manufacturing businesses. The Company produces round pipes, square pipes, painting square pipes, and other products. Nexteel conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Nexteel (092790 KS)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices - Potential Migrations as Focus Is on Price to Book

We see 35 migrations and 7 new inclusions for the KOSPI Size indices. Stocks migrating higher have outperformed stocks migrating lower. Some stocks...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices - The Outperformance Continues

We see 34 migrations and 6 new inclusions for the KOSPI Size indices. Stocks migrating higher have outperformed stocks migrating lower. Some stocks...

Brian Freitas

A Proactive Long Short Basket Setup Targeting KOSPI Size Index's Next Rebal

This post explores a proactive Long Short basket setup targeting the KOSPI Size Index's next rebalancing, whose entry timing should be early December.

Sanghyun Park

Nexteel IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Nexteel reported disappointing IPO book building results from institutional investors. The IPO price has been confirmed at 11,500 won which is at...

Douglas Kim

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