Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> founder Kim Jung Ju tried to sell his holdco in 2019, didn't, now shares are higher, but he passed suddenly in Q1. The stock popped.</li>
<li>Inheritance tax issues for the estate are complicated, but the buyback just executed might signal a "pause" for a while. </li>
<li>In the meantime, recent underperformance in terms of Peer-relative earnings forecasts suggests the stock could drift.</li>
</ul>



Nexon (3659 JP) founder Kim Jung Ju tried to sell his holdco in 2019, didn't, now shares are higher, but he passed suddenly in Q1. The stock popped.
Inheritance tax issues for the estate are complicated, but the buyback just executed might signal a "pause" for a while. 
In the meantime, recent underperformance in terms of Peer-relative earnings forecasts suggests the stock could drift.


Nexon Buyback May Signal End To Near-Term Relative Outperformance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amid recent market carnage, one of the strong turnaround stocks in Korea is NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) which is down 54% from its highs in February 2021.</li>
<li>Three major reasons why NCsoft's share price will turnaround include attractive valuations, better control of labor costs, and strong pipeline of new games. </li>
<li>Short sale value/market cap ratio for NCsoft has declined materially in the past several weeks, reflecting increased optimism in the company's future prospects. </li>
</ul>


Amid recent market carnage, one of the strong turnaround stocks in Korea is NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) which is down 54% from its highs in February 2021.
Three major reasons why NCsoft's share price will turnaround include attractive valuations, better control of labor costs, and strong pipeline of new games. 
Short sale value/market cap ratio for NCsoft has declined materially in the past several weeks, reflecting increased optimism in the company's future prospects. 


NCsoft: A Strong Turnaround Play in Korean Game Sector

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. </li>
<li>Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s implied stub has overshot the mark</li>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. 
Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in Prosus (PRX NA)'s implied stub has overshot the mark
The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

Konami Holdings Corporation provides digital entertainment, health and fitness and gaming products. The Company develops and sells video games, mobile games and computer games, gaming machines, pachislot and pachinko machines, and fitness machines as well as operates health and fitness clubs.

ORACLE CORPORATION JAPAN sells a variety of software, including database management system software, application development tools, decision-making support tools, and business related applications.  The Company also provides support services for users.

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

OBIC Business Consultants Co.,Ltd. develops and markets business solution packaged software. The Company's products include software for accounting, banking, wage calculation, sales management, inventory control, and tax calculation. OBIC Business Consultants Co Ltd. also provides support and training services.

FUJI SOFT INCORPORATED is an independent software developer, specializing in communications and machine control software, business application software for bank and insurance companies, and operating system software.  Fuji Soft also installs, manages, and maintains computer systems.  The Company develops and sells word processing packaged software and also provides internet service.

Koei Tecmo Holdings Co.,Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Koei Co., Ltd. and Tecmo Ltd. The Company develops and distributes video game software for personal computers and home video game consoles. The Company also operates other media business such as marketing of books and CDs and amusement facility operation.

NSD CO., LTD is an independent computer software development company. The Company's products include operating systems, business software for financial industry, and process control systems.  NSD also provides computer services including managing computer systems and data entry. The Company also sells computers and its peripheral equipment.

Justsystems Corporation develops and sells computer application software. The Company's products include Ichitaro, a Japanese language word processing program.  Justsystems also develops network software.

Xero Limited offers an online accounting system.  The software features bank transaction importing, a cashbook, a general ledger, invoicing, accounts receivable, accounts payable, financial reporting, and management of expense claims.

Aspen Technology, Inc. provides software solutions. The Company offers asset optimization software that optimizes asset design, operations, and maintenance in complex, industrial environments to enable organizations to meet their business goals for sustainability and profitability. Aspen Technology serves customers worldwide.

Paycom Software Inc provides cloud-based HCM software solution delivered as Software-as-a-Service.  The Company provides functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the complete employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets and supports a range of software and hardware products and services for information technology (IT) security and offers its customers a network and gateway security solutions, data and endpoint security solutions and management solutions.

SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. develops and markets computer software for financial services providers.  The software enables trading and modeling, portfolio management and reporting, accounting, performance measurement, reconciliation, reporting, processing, and clearing.

Manhattan Associates, Inc. provides information technology solutions for distribution centers.  The solutions are designed to enable the efficient movement of goods through the supply chain.  The Company's solutions optimize the receipt, storage, and distribution of inventory, as well as manage equipment and personnel within a distribution center.

HubSpot, Inc. provides a cloud-based marketing and sales software platform. The Company offers integrated applications that helps in lead generation and social marketing.

Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. provides comprehensive information technology solutions to the financial services industry worldwide. The Company provides transaction processing and accounting software for banks, investment managers and mutual funds. Oracle Financial also provides internet delivery of financial services as well as business intelligence and analytical applications.

PTC Inc. develops and delivers technology solutions, comprised of software and services. The Company's technology is primarily used by discrete manufacturers to design, operate and maintain complex products. PTC's technology is also used to connect products to the Internet for purposes of capturing and analyzing information from them.

Tyler Technologies, Inc. provides end-to-end information management solutions and services for local governments. The Company's client base includes local government offices throughout the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, and the United Kingdom.

Nexon Co., Ltd. mainly develops and services, online games for PC and mobile devices. The company also offers consulting services related to online-games. Nexon operates in Japan.

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Nexon (3659 JP)

Nexon Buyback May Signal End To Near-Term Relative Outperformance

Nexon (3659) is an "event stock" because the founder wanted to sell it, he has passed, now his family/estate need to deal with the inheritance tax...

Travis Lundy

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

NCsoft: A Strong Turnaround Play in Korean Game Sector

Three major reasons why NCsoft's share price will turnaround include attractive valuations, better control of labor costs, and strong pipeline of...

Douglas Kim

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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