Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 24 June, NCSoft announced a corporate split-off of two divisions called named NC QA Company and NC IDS Company.</li>
<li>NCSoft plans to hold a shareholders meeting where to vote on the split off decision on 14 August. Effective date of the company split is scheduled for 1 October 2024.</li>
<li>The consensus estimates sales of 2.0 trillion won (up 19.2% YoY) and operating profit of 272 billion won (up 155.2% YoY) in 2025.</li>
</ul>


On 24 June, NCSoft announced a corporate split-off of two divisions called named NC QA Company and NC IDS Company.
NCSoft plans to hold a shareholders meeting where to vote on the split off decision on 14 August. Effective date of the company split is scheduled for 1 October 2024.
The consensus estimates sales of 2.0 trillion won (up 19.2% YoY) and operating profit of 272 billion won (up 155.2% YoY) in 2025.


NCSoft: Corporate Split-Off of Two Divisions

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>No surprise: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.</li>
<li>Argyle failed to boot one <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">CMCDI (133 HK)</a> director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.</li>
<li>The Offeror now has 90.16% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NCsoft plans to launch the highly anticipated new MMORPG game called Throne and Liberty in Korea on 7 December 2023.</li>
<li>NCsoft reported operating profit of 16.5 billion won (down 89% YoY) and  revenue of 423.1 billion won (down 30% YoY) in 3Q 2023. </li>
<li>Throne and Liberty has a solid chance to become successful globally through Amazon Game platform, which is likely to drive a strong turnaround of NCsoft's sales and profits.</li>
</ul>


NCsoft plans to launch the highly anticipated new MMORPG game called Throne and Liberty in Korea on 7 December 2023.
NCsoft reported operating profit of 16.5 billion won (down 89% YoY) and  revenue of 423.1 billion won (down 30% YoY) in 3Q 2023. 
Throne and Liberty has a solid chance to become successful globally through Amazon Game platform, which is likely to drive a strong turnaround of NCsoft's sales and profits.


NCsoft: Launch of Highly Anticipated Throne and Liberty MMORPG Game

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 5 June, Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. The original book building period for the institutional investors was from 3 to 13 June.  </li>
<li>The final book building date has been postponed to 27 June. The subsequent public offering subscription for general investors was also postponed to 2 to 3 July.</li>
<li>A major investment positive of Shift Up is enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which was the best selling game in the U.S. and numerous other countries in April 2024. </li>
</ul>


On 5 June, Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. The original book building period for the institutional investors was from 3 to 13 June.  
The final book building date has been postponed to 27 June. The subsequent public offering subscription for general investors was also postponed to 2 to 3 July.
A major investment positive of Shift Up is enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which was the best selling game in the U.S. and numerous other countries in April 2024. 


Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

South Korea

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

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NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)

NCSoft: Corporate Split-Off of Two Divisions

On 24 June, NCSoft announced a corporate split-off of two divisions called named NC QA Company and NC IDS Company. The consensus estimates...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

NCsoft: Launch of Highly Anticipated Throne and Liberty MMORPG Game

We believe that Throne and Liberty has a solid chance to become successful globally through Amazon Game platform, which is likely to drive a strong...

Douglas Kim

Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April

Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. A major investment positive is the enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which...

Douglas Kim

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

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