Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

New Horizon Health  / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-horizon-health-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31039:1" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health (6606 HK)</a> , the pioneer in China’s colorectal cancer screening market started trading on the Hong Stock Exchange on 18<sup>th</sup> February. The company set its final IPO pricing at HK$26.66 per share, the upper end of the IPO price range of HK$22.66-26.66 per share and raised net proceeds of HK$2.04bn (approx. US$263m).</p><p>NHH’s shares opened strong at its debut at HK$76 per share, about 185% higher than the final IPO pricing of HK$26.66 per share. The company’s IPO was oversubscribed by more than 4,000 times, making it the second most oversubscribed stock in the history of HKEX.</p><p>The company’s shares closed at HK$84 per share at the end of its first day of trading, a lofty premium of 215% to the final IPO price.</p>

New Horizon Health (6606 HK) , the pioneer in China’s colorectal cancer screening market started trading on the Hong Stock Exchange on 18th February. The company set its final IPO pricing at HK$26.66 per share, the upper end of the IPO price range of HK$22.66-26.66 per share and raised net proceeds of HK$2.04bn (approx. US$263m).NHH’s shares opened strong at its debut at HK$76 per share, about 185% higher than the final IPO pricing of HK$26.66 per share. The company’s IPO was oversubscribed by more than 4,000 times, making it the second most oversubscribed stock in the history of HKEX.The company’s shares closed at HK$84 per share at the end of its first day of trading, a lofty premium of 215% to the final IPO price.

New Horizon Health IPO Trading Update: A Blockbuster IPO but It’s Time You Plan an Exit Strategy

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

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<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-horizon-health-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31039:1" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health (6606 HK)</a> is a leading player in China’s colorectal cancer screening market. It has two self-developed cancer screening tests - Pupu Tube and ColoClear. New Horizon will commence trading on Thursday, 18 February. New Horizon priced its IPO at HK$26.66 and <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1076602/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened 1.2x higher</a> at HK$58.40 in the grey market and last stood at HK$79.</p></div>
<div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-horizon-health-ipo-initiation-screening-for-cancer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46909" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health IPO Initiation: Screening for Cancer</a>, we stated that New Horizon is a play on the rapid growth of the cancer screening market in China, particularly the colorectal cancer screening market. We concluded that that New Horizon has the right ingredients to capitalise on this market opportunity.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-horizon-health-ipo-poised-for-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47722" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health IPO: Poised for Growth</a>, we stated that the PHIP which disclose the 9M20 results and the all-important NMPA approval for ColoClear IVD reinforce our view that New Horizon has attractive fundamentals. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-horizon-health-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47808" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive.</p></div>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$28.07 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive but the grey market price is fully priced. </p></div></div></div>


New Horizon Health (6606 HK) is a leading player in China’s colorectal cancer screening market. It has two self-developed cancer screening tests - Pupu Tube and ColoClear. New Horizon will commence trading on Thursday, 18 February. New Horizon priced its IPO at HK$26.66 and opened 1.2x higher at HK$58.40 in the grey market and last stood at HK$79.
In New Horizon Health IPO Initiation: Screening for Cancer, we stated that New Horizon is a play on the rapid growth of the cancer screening market in China, particularly the colorectal cancer screening market. We concluded that that New Horizon has the right ingredients to capitalise on this market opportunity.  In New Horizon Health IPO: Poised for Growth, we stated that the PHIP which disclose the 9M20 results and the all-important NMPA approval for ColoClear IVD reinforce our view that New Horizon has attractive fundamentals. In New Horizon Health IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive.
Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$28.07 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive but the grey market price is fully priced. 

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

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<p>New Horizon Health raised HKD 1,898 million (USD 244m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Thursday, Feb 18th.</p>
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<p>In our previous note (A hot medical device deal in making), we discussed that NH Health provides cancer screen kits for convenient early screening targeting populations recommended for regular cancer screening. The company's approved product ColoClear has an impressive accuracy compared with peer products for colorectal cancer. In addition to ColoClear, it also offers a more mass-market product, Pupu Tube for home-based testing. The company's products have a huge unmet market and a high barrier to entry. We believe its uniqueness as the only investable stock in the segment will make the deal interesting for investors. The company's management has good prior working experience and is backed by a strong lineup of international and domestic investors. We have compared the company's product with the benchmark product, Exact Sciences' Cologuard. We think the company's ColoClear is ahead of the Cologuard with improvement in clinical reading and the technology used. We valued the company's core product, ColoClear at USD 2.6 bn and the company at USD 3.1bn on a SOTP basis. </p>
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<p>In this note, we will discuss that the sentiment is strong for both retail books and institutional book. There are strong demands from the institution side and the supply is scarce. Hence we think the deal will do very well on debut. </p>
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<h2>Our previous coverage on New Horizon Health</h2>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-horizon-health-pre-ipo-a-hot-medical-device-deal-in-making" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) Pre-IPO: A Hot Medical Device Deal in Making</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-horizon-health-pre-ipo-comparison-with-exact-sciences" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) Pre-IPO: Comparison with Exact Sciences</a></li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-horizon-health-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on valuation</a></p>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-horizon-health-ipo-room-to-fly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) IPO: Room to Fly</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
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New Horizon Health raised HKD 1,898 million (USD 244m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Thursday, Feb 18th.


In our previous note (A hot medical device deal in making), we discussed that NH Health provides cancer screen kits for convenient early screening targeting populations recommended for regular cancer screening. The company's approved product ColoClear has an impressive accuracy compared with peer products for colorectal cancer. In addition to ColoClear, it also offers a more mass-market product, Pupu Tube for home-based testing. The company's products have a huge unmet market and a high barrier to entry. We believe its uniqueness as the only investable stock in the segment will make the deal interesting for investors. The company's management has good prior working experience and is backed by a strong lineup of international and domestic investors. We have compared the company's product with the benchmark product, Exact Sciences' Cologuard. We think the company's ColoClear is ahead of the Cologuard with improvement in clinical reading and the technology used. We valued the company's core product, ColoClear at USD 2.6 bn and the company at USD 3.1bn on a SOTP basis. 


In this note, we will discuss that the sentiment is strong for both retail books and institutional book. There are strong demands from the institution side and the supply is scarce. Hence we think the deal will do very well on debut. 

Our previous coverage on New Horizon Health



New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) Pre-IPO: A Hot Medical Device Deal in Making
New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) Pre-IPO: Comparison with Exact Sciences

New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on valuation

New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) IPO: Room to Fly




New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) IPO Trading: Supply-Demand Imbalance

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (1863447D HK)</a> , a biopharmaceutical company with an integrated platform for product development and commercialisation has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise about US$500m.</p><p>The company focuses on oncology and severe infection as its key focus areas, two of the largest and fastest growing therapeutic areas in China. The company already has been generating revenues from the sale of its proprietary product Zadaxin, and at the same time, it also makes revenues from the sale of in-licensed products as well as from promotion products on behalf of its business partners in China.</p><p>Though Zadaxin possesses the first mover advantage as the first branded thymalfasin drug in China, we remain concerned about the future prospects for Zadaxin if it is chosen for volume-based procurement catalog in China.</p>

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (1863447D HK) , a biopharmaceutical company with an integrated platform for product development and commercialisation has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise about US$500m.The company focuses on oncology and severe infection as its key focus areas, two of the largest and fastest growing therapeutic areas in China. The company already has been generating revenues from the sale of its proprietary product Zadaxin, and at the same time, it also makes revenues from the sale of in-licensed products as well as from promotion products on behalf of its business partners in China.Though Zadaxin possesses the first mover advantage as the first branded thymalfasin drug in China, we remain concerned about the future prospects for Zadaxin if it is chosen for volume-based procurement catalog in China.

SciClone Pharmaceutical IPO: Future Prospects for Zadaxin Troubling

Joinn Laboratories China  Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Joinn Laboratories, a non-clinical CRO (Contract Research Organization) focused on drug safety assessment has filed for a secondary listing to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and plans to raise about US$600m. The company was initially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2017.</p><p>The company is the market leader in China’s non-clinical drug safety assessment services industry and has experienced strong growth in revenue which grew at a CAGR of over 45% during 2017-2019. With the acquisition of Biomere, the company gained a large number of overseas customers which has helped further grow its revenues. China’s drug CRO market also shows strong growth potential with more pharmaceutical companies trying to cut down on their R&amp;D costs through outsourcing their research functions.</p>

Joinn Laboratories, a non-clinical CRO (Contract Research Organization) focused on drug safety assessment has filed for a secondary listing to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and plans to raise about US$600m. The company was initially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2017.The company is the market leader in China’s non-clinical drug safety assessment services industry and has experienced strong growth in revenue which grew at a CAGR of over 45% during 2017-2019. With the acquisition of Biomere, the company gained a large number of overseas customers which has helped further grow its revenues. China’s drug CRO market also shows strong growth potential with more pharmaceutical companies trying to cut down on their R&amp;D costs through outsourcing their research functions.

Joinn Laboratories IPO: Pioneer of Commercial GLP Laboratories in China Shows Promise

China

New Horizon Health Limited operates cancer screening technology development business. The Company develops and sells colorectal cancer screening test products, gastric cancer screening test products, and other products. New Horizon Health markets its products throughout China.

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New Horizon Health (6606 HK)

New Horizon Health IPO Trading Update: A Blockbuster IPO but It’s Time You Plan an Exit Strategy

New Horizon Health (NHH), the pioneer in China’s colorectal cancer screening market started trading on the Hong Stock Exchange on 18th February. T

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

New Horizon Health IPO: Trading Debut

New Horizon opened 1.2x higher at HK$58.40 in the grey market and last stood at HK$79. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market...

Arun George

New Horizon Health (诺辉健康) IPO Trading: Supply-Demand Imbalance

The sentiment is strong for both retail books and institutional book. There are strong demands from the institution side and the supply is scarce....

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SciClone Pharmaceutical IPO: Future Prospects for Zadaxin Troubling

SciClone Pharmaceuticals, a biopharmaceutical company with an integrated platform for product development and commercialisation has filed for an...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Joinn Laboratories IPO: Pioneer of Commercial GLP Laboratories in China Shows Promise

Joinn Laboratories, a non-clinical CRO focused on drug safety assessment has filed for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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