Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 1 September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.5% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3.4bn (US$435m). There are 4 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Short interest is 15% of float on both stocks. Short covering could take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> higher while providing support for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies (2018 HK)</a> closer to deletion.</li>
</ul>


As expected, East Buy Holding (1797 HK) replaces AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 1 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.5% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3.4bn (US$435m). There are 4 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
Short interest is 15% of float on both stocks. Short covering could take East Buy Holding (1797 HK) higher while providing support for AAC Technologies (2018 HK) closer to deletion.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: East Buy (1797 HK) Replaces AAC Tech (2018 HK); Big Shorts on Both Stocks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro environment to be conducive; </li>
<li>Our China Internet top picks are Meituan and Tencent, and investors could buy PDD and NetEase after 2Q23 earnings. </li>
<li>Domestic consumption will also bottom out, but sustainability only confines to a few, our top picks in China consumer names are Miniso, Luckin Coffee, and Atour.</li>
</ul>


We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro environment to be conducive; 
Our China Internet top picks are Meituan and Tencent, and investors could buy PDD and NetEase after 2Q23 earnings. 
Domestic consumption will also bottom out, but sustainability only confines to a few, our top picks in China consumer names are Miniso, Luckin Coffee, and Atour.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Time to Buy China Internet and Consumer Names

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Byd Company, China Mobile, Wuxi Apptec, Bidu.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Byd Company, China Mobile, Wuxi Apptec, Bidu.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Byd Company, China Mobile, Wuxi Apptec, Bidu

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>China online game market revenue decreased 2.4% YoY but grew 22% HoH to RMB144.3bn in 1H23, according to GPC</li><li>Supported by the recovery of game supply and paying willingness, online game market revenue returned to positive growth track and was up by 12% YoY in 2Q23, with a 2-year CAGR of 2%.</li><li>We expect China online game market to maintain steady growth momentum in 2H23E, mainly due to the launch of quality new games YTD and the low-base effect. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China online game market revenue decreased 2.4% YoY but grew 22% HoH to RMB144.3bn in 1H23, according to GPCSupported by the recovery of game supply and paying willingness, online game market revenue returned to positive growth track and was up by 12% YoY in 2Q23, with a 2-year CAGR of 2%.We expect China online game market to maintain steady growth momentum in 2H23E, mainly due to the launch of quality new games YTD and the low-base effect. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – Online game sector: rebounded in 2Q23

China

NetEase, Inc. operates as an leading internet technology company providing online services including content, community, communication, and commerce. The Company develops and operates online games, electronic commerce, internet media, innovative business, and other businesses. NetEase expands its businesses to Japan, North American, and other other international markets.

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NetEase (9999 HK)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: East Buy (1797 HK) Replaces AAC Tech (2018 HK); Big Shorts on Both Stocks

East Buy (1797) replaces AAC Tech (2018) in the HSTECH in Sep. Two-way turnover is 7% and the round-trip trade is US$870m. There are big shorts on...

Brian Freitas

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Time to Buy China Internet and Consumer Names

We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Short Interest Weekly: Byd Company, China Mobile, Wuxi Apptec, Bidu

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 21st and highlight short interest changes in Byd Company, China Mobile,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Internet – Online game sector: rebounded in 2Q23

Supported by the recovery of game supply and paying willingness, online game market revenue returned to positive growth track and was up by 12% YoY...

CMB International

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52-week Range

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