European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.</li>
<li>The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.</li>
</ul>


On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.
The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.
The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.


Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-corp-e3b4f84d-56b4-4ae2-87f3-1c3e83138aea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25297:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield (BN CN)</a> has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neoen-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33002:1" rel="noopener">Neoen (NEOEN FP)</a> to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.</li>
<li>The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.</li>
<li>Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).</li>
</ul>



Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.
The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.
Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).


Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>No surprise: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.</li>
<li>Argyle failed to boot one <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">CMCDI (133 HK)</a> director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.</li>
<li>The Offeror now has 90.16% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

<ul>
<li>Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.</li>
<li>Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> is in play.</li>
<li>A HUGE new buyback for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a>. Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. </li>
</ul>


Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

Equity Analyst (Index Flows & Special Situations), Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst (Index Flows & Special Situations)

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.
Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

France

Neoen operates as an independent energy company. The Company develops, finances, builds, and manages renewable energy power plants such as solar, wind, and biomass. Neoen serves customers worldwide.

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Neoen (NEOEN FP)

Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

The Top 10 potential ADDs have strongly outperformed the Top 7 potential DELs in the last 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods. I expect this trend...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

The Top 10 potential ADDs have strongly outperformed the Top 7 potential DELs in the last 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods. I expect this trend...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA