European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.</li>
<li>The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.</li>
</ul>


On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.
The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.
The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.


Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-corp-e3b4f84d-56b4-4ae2-87f3-1c3e83138aea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25297:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield (BN CN)</a> has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neoen-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33002:1" rel="noopener">Neoen (NEOEN FP)</a> to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.</li>
<li>The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.</li>
<li>Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).</li>
</ul>



Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.
The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.
Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).


Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumors. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below €20/share, a 79% premium to current prices.</li>
<li>After the takeover of other independent power developers, Solaria may now hold some scarcity value. Premia in comparable transactions range from 27% to 54%. Solaria trades at 11.2x fwd EBITDA.</li>
<li>A 50% premium (€16.8/share, €3.1bn EV) takeover wouldn't be irrational at 14.7x EBITDA. I believe the shares are undervalued and recommend buying SLR SM at current prices, anticipating a possible deal.</li>
</ul>


Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumors. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below €20/share, a 79% premium to current prices.
After the takeover of other independent power developers, Solaria may now hold some scarcity value. Premia in comparable transactions range from 27% to 54%. Solaria trades at 11.2x fwd EBITDA.
A 50% premium (€16.8/share, €3.1bn EV) takeover wouldn't be irrational at 14.7x EBITDA. I believe the shares are undervalued and recommend buying SLR SM at current prices, anticipating a possible deal.


Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>No surprise: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.</li>
<li>Argyle failed to boot one <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">CMCDI (133 HK)</a> director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.</li>
<li>The Offeror now has 90.16% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

<ul>
<li>Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.</li>
<li>Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> is in play.</li>
<li>A HUGE new buyback for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a>. Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. </li>
</ul>


Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

France

Neoen operates as an independent energy company. The Company develops, finances, builds, and manages renewable energy power plants such as solar, wind, and biomass. Neoen serves customers worldwide.

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Neoen (NEOEN FP)

Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumours. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumours. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett